Variable Rate or Fixed Rate for Renewals in 2026?
Here is what a math-based, mortgage broker with 21 years of experience and an MBA in finance looks at when deciding what to do for my own mortgage renewal.
This is a super common question as there are still 1,800,000 Canadian mortgage renewals to come before summer 2027, with the same 1.8M renewals completed since 2025.
Numbers at the top, words at the bottom.
Numbers
Variable Rate in 2024 = 6.20%
(Prime – .90% = 7.2% – .9% = 6.2% rate.)
-2.75% rate drops = 3.45% today, Jan 2026.
Variable Rate in 2026 = 3.75% today
(Prime – .70% = 4.45% – .7% = 3.75% rate.)
No rate drops expected, 2x .25% increases expected = 3.75% + .5 = 4.25% by the end of 2026.
Continued instability will lead to more rate increases later.
5-year Fixed Rates
5.09% in 2024
4.24% today – 2026
Analysis
Variable wins by .5% today, but fully expect 2 x o.25% increase in 2026 to make the rate the same as fixed rates are today, Jan 2026.
Fixed rates are now, and will continue to slowly rise, as Trump policy is highly inflationary.
If you take a variable now, and then go to lock it in later, when variable rates / prime rates start to increase, the rate you lock in at will be higher than today.
Summary
Rates look to have bottomed out right now, from looking many data points.
Fixed rates are ½% higher than the variable rates today – Jan 2026.
Then what? In 2024 I was able to precisely layout the next 18 months and predicted every rate increase exactly as it played out. Right now it is not possible to guess what will happen next month so Variable has higher risk and will probably pay more later as the rates increase as expected.
200 Word Summary
Canada’s variable-rate mortgage borrowers have enjoyed significant relief since the Bank of Canada (BoC) began cutting interest rates in 2024, but that momentum is expected to slow—and probably reverse – in 2026.
The BoC delivered 2.75% of rate cuts through 2024–2025, bringing the policy rate down to 2.25%. This helped push insured variable mortgage rates below 4%, down from around 7% in mid-2024.
However, the BoC now views inflation risks as too elevated to justify further cuts, and rate relief for variable-rate borrowers is “mostly behind us.”
The bank’s baseline forecast suggests the BoC’s policy rate could rise back toward its long-term neutral level of 2.75%, which would push variable mortgage rates up by roughly 0.5% in 2026, with additional increases probable in 2027.
Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates have fallen less dramatically because they are tied to longer-term bond yields, which rebounded in late 2025. Borrowers have increasingly favored 3-year fixed and 5-year fixed terms, anticipating improved renewal conditions ahead when they renew later.
Bottom line: 2026 could prove challenging for variable-rate borrowers. The era of large variable-rate relief seems to be ending, and 2026 may test borrowers who relied on those lower rates — especially if the BoC keeps rates steady or reverses course
Looking at all of this, in March, I will be renewing into the 5-year fixed so I can sleep at night.
Mortgage Mark Herman, MBA, Top Calgary mortgage broker for 21 years.
Mortgage Renewals – 2.75 million Canadian Mortgage Renewals Before 2028!!
Mortgage Stress Test: Why It’s Protecting Homeowners Ahead of the 2026 Renewal Wave
If you locked in your mortgage around 2% five years ago, you probably remember grumbling about the federal “stress test.” At the time, qualifying at 5.25% felt unnecessary — almost punitive. Fast forward to today, and that very safeguard is proving to be one of the smartest policies in Canadian housing finance.
The Renewal Wave Is Coming
According to the latest CMHC report, Canada is heading into a busy period of mortgage renewals:
- 750,000 mortgages will renew in the second half of 2025
- Over 1 million more in 2026
- 940,000 in 2027
Even though the Bank of Canada has cut rates nine times since its peak tightening cycle, borrowing costs remain much higher than they were during the pandemic lows. In fact, the average five-year fixed uninsured mortgage rate in July 2025 was still 67% higher than five years earlier.
“Banks are ready for the almost 3 million mortgage renewals before 2028. Lets get you a strategy on how to get the best rates on your renewal. Its a quick 10 minute phone call and we usually send you back to your own bank with the data you need to get a better rate from them OR we can move you to a bank that does get you better rates.”
Mortgage Mark Herman, Top Calgary Mortgage Broker for renewal advice
Stress Test Success
Here’s the good news: borrowers who qualified at 5.25% back in 2020 are now proving resilient. The stress test ensured they could handle payments at rates much higher than what they actually received. That foresight is paying off:
- National mortgage delinquency rates fell in Q2 2025 — the first decline since 2022.
- While Ontario and BC saw arrears climb (reflecting higher property values and loan sizes), the overall system is holding steady.
- Fears of a “renewal cliff” have eased, thanks to both the stress test and recent rate cuts.
What This Means for You
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in 2026, now is the time to plan. Options like refinancing, adjusting amortization, or exploring different products can help smooth the transition. The stress test gave you a buffer — but proactive planning will maximize your financial flexibility.
Call to Action: If your mortgage is set to renew in the next 12–18 months, let’s talk strategy. As a mortgage broker, I specialize in helping clients navigate renewals, refinances, and complex lending scenarios. Call me today to review your options and make sure you’re ready for what’s ahead.