Prime Rate Holding, July 1st Expected Reduction & Real Estate Economic Data
The Bank of Canada cited the ongoing risk of inflation for its decision to maintain its overnight benchmark interest rate at 5.0%.
Below are the Bank of Canada’s observations, including its forward-looking comments on the state of the economy, inflation and interest rates.
Canadian inflation
- CPI inflation ended the year at 3.4% and the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of 2024 “before gradually easing” and returning to the Bank’s 2% target in 2025
- Shelter costs remain “the biggest contributor to above-target inflation”
- While a slowdown in demand is said by the Bank to be reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behavior continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.
Canadian economic performance and outlook
- The Bank notes that the Canadian economy has “stalled” since the middle of 2023 and believes growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024
- Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted
- With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply
- Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%
Global economic performance and outlook
- Global economic growth continues to slow, with inflation easing “gradually” across most economies
- While growth in the United States has been stronger than expected, it is anticipated to slow in 2024, with weakening consumer spending and business investment
- In the euro area, the economy looks to be in a mild contraction
- In China, low consumer confidence and policy uncertainty will likely restrain activity
- Oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR)
- Financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn
- The Bank now forecasts global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 and 2.75% in 2025 compared to 2023’s 3% pace
- With softer growth this year, inflation rates in most advanced economies are expected to come down slowly, reaching central bank targets in 2025
Outlook
The Bank believes that Canadian economic growth will strengthen gradually “around the middle of 2024.” Furthermore, it expects household spending will likely “pick up” in the second half of 2024, and exports and business investment should get a boost from recovering foreign demand.
Taking all of these factors and forecasts into account, the Bank’s Governing Council decided to hold its policy rate at 5% and to continue to “normalize” the Bank’s balance sheet.
The Bank’s statement went on to note that Council “is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation” and wants to see “further and sustained easing in core inflation.” The Bank also said it continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
As it has said consistently over the past year, the Bank will remain “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”
Although the Bank did not say it, the bottom line is we will have to wait and see what comes next.
Next touchpoint
March 6, 2024 is the Bank’s next scheduled policy interest rate announcement.
The End of Prime Rate Increases, January, 2024, Canada
Horray, today The Bank of Canada didn’t just put rate hikes on the back burner today; it unplugged the stove!
The Bank is now “confident enough” that inflation is on the right track to not publicly dwell on rate hike risk any longer. That was today’s message from Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers after the BoC left its overnight rate at 5%.
Instead, the Bank says it’s now shifting its focus to “how long” the overnight rate needs to marinate “at the current level.”
Summary:
No more increases to the Canadian Prime Rate of Interest – at 7.2% today, after 10 increases in 2023.
Back in August I said Prime should start to come down in June – still the best guess – and
will come down by o.25% every 3 months, so one-quarter-percent decrease every calendar / fiscal quarter (3 months)
for a total of 2% less than today so … Prime should end up at 5.2% in 30 months, which is June 2026.
Mortgage Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta and BC mortgage broker
“We need to give these higher interest rates time to do their work,” Macklem said, offering no clues on how long he’ll let the rate hike stew simmer. The forward market thinks it’ll take another 4 – 6 months. Historically, rates have plateaued at peak levels for anywhere from a few months to 17 months. So far, it’s been only 6.
The Bank says that higher rates can’t be completely ruled out, but it’s very rare for the Bank of Canada to hike a bunch, pause 5+ months, hike more, pause 5+ months more, and then hike again.
Update: Using Return-To-Work Income while on Maternity Leave and Self-employed: 2024
Flavor of the month seems to be combining: self-employed income & T4 income & being on maturity leave – to buy a home now!
Yes, this is possible and of course, the catches are:
- Self-employed income CAN be used and needs to be a 2-year average … so your self-employed income can still be used as an input for the 2-year average
- Full, return to work salary/ wages after maternity leave can still be used, as long as your employment letter has a “return to work date.”
- All of the Big-6 banks have a tough time with this and don’t do it.
- They need to see a payslip for your actual return to work … but that kind of messes up the entire idea of using your income now, and buying now while you have time to shop and move-in, in peace and at your own pace.
Here is the 1st post with all the details of what is needed: link
NEXT STEP
Call for a chat about your specific situation and we can jump right in on the phone. No need to book a call; just call!
I answer from 9-9 x 363, am in the office from 10 – 6:30 most days, best time to call is between 11 am – 3 pm.
We love using return-to-work pay because the Big-6 banks don’t!
Mortgage Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta and BC mortgage broker.
403-681-4376
Using Disability Income to Qualify for a Canadian Mortgage: 2024
CAN I USE DISABILITY INCOME TO QUALIFY FOR A CANADIAN MORTGAGE?
YES, YOU CAN use DISABILITY INCOME to get a pre-approval leading to a full mortgage approval if you are on disability or have disability income.
- Below are a few clarifications on the typical disability incomes that the banks can use.
- Not all banks accept all types of disability income so we use a few different lenders to ensure we have all your bases covered.
NEXT STEP
Call or send me an email with your contact data so we can have a chat on the phone about how to use these for your purchase.
- I answer from 9-9 x 363, am in the office from 10 – 6:30 most days, best time to call is between 11 am – 3 pm.
- No need to pre-book, just call!
- (How different is that?)
Long-term & Short-term Disability Pension/Insurance
If the borrower has a non-taxable income, the Bank, CMHC and Sagen allow the income to be grossed-up.
- Less than $30,000, this income may be increased by 25%
- At least $30,000, this income may be increased by 35%
Long-term disability: 100% of long-term disability income can be used.
Provide one of the following:
- Letter from the organization or from QPP confirming long-term or permanent disability. If the letter is outdated (over 120 days), current bank statements confirming the deposits are being made to the borrower’s account are also needed
- T4A(P) confirming disability income.
Short-term disability: 100% of the employment income can be used for short-term disability.
Provide the following:
-
- A letter from the employer confirming the borrower’s return date, position and salary with a verbal confirmation from the employer to ensure the date on the letter is correct. If the return date cannot be confirmed, the disability income can be used for qualifications.
Pension & Retirement Income/Life Annuity
Retirement pensions are fixed incomes, CPP (Canada Pension Plan), OAS (Old Age Security), GIS (Guaranteed Income Supplement), provincial pension plans and private/corporate pensions and must be Canadian pension and evident on Canadian tax return.
IF you are Splitting Retirement Income: In the case where the pension income is shared for tax purposes, the transferring spouse/common-law partner must be on file and only the amount that has not been transferred/split is admissible.
Provide the most recent two documents of the following depending on the source of the declared retirement income:
- Most recent NOA supported by T1 General
- RL-2 Slip
- T4A, T4A(P)
- Letter from the initiating party confirming the yearly pension amount
- Letter from the organization confirming income and permanency of income
- Copy of current bank statement showing the automatic deposit
- Copy of current monthly cheque stub
For CPP, OAS, QPP and GIS, only one relevant document for each source is required from the list above.
RRIF
Income from a RRIF is admissible if there is proof that the portfolio generates a sustainable income amount for the length of the term.
This is a tough one to nail down as the portfolio has to be sustainable and not “drained” over the term of the loan, as in, there will still be a substantial balance in 5 years, if the mortgage is a 5-year term.
Provide the following:
- The most recent NOA supported by T1 General
- Recent RRIF statement to show that the borrower has sufficient assets to support the indicated income for the length of the term
First Nations
This is a non-taxable income. The income can be grossed-up as follows:
- Less than $30,000, this income may be increased by 25%
- At least $30,000, this income may be increased by 35%
Provide the following:
- Copy of the status card needed
“We use disability income all the time in our practice and have access to the banks and lenders that allow its use some pensions and other disability income better than other options.
Mortgage Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta and BC mortgage broker, for 21 years.