Horray – the rates are dropping.

We expect to see a total of 2 MORE rate reductions of 0.25% each in 2024.

5 x o.25% reductions are expected in 2025 making the variable the better way to go right now.

Mortgage Mark Herman

DATA

Encouraged by underling trends in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada today cut its overnight policy interest rate by 0.25% to 4.50%.

This is the second incremental reduction we’ve seen in as many months and while both cuts have been modest, they are moving Canada toward less restrictive monetary policy.

We summarize the Bank’s rationale for this decision by summarizing its observations below, including its forward-looking comments for signs of what may happen next.

Canadian inflation including shelter inflation

• Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May
• Broad inflationary pressures are easing, and the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm
• Shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation
• Inflation is also elevated in services that are closely affected by wages, such as restaurants and personal care

Canadian economic performance and outlook

• Economic growth “likely” picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of 2024, however, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased
• Household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been “weak”
• There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4% and with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work
• Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated
• GDP growth is forecast to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease
• Residential investment is expected to grow robustly
• With new government limits on admissions of non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025

Global economic performance and outlook

• The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate of about 3% through 2026
• While inflation is still above central bank targets in most advanced economies, it is forecast to ease gradually
• In the United States, an anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating and US inflation appearing to resume its downward path
• In the euro area, growth is picking up following a weak 2023
• China’s economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports
• Global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuances
• The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in the Bank’s April’s Monetary Policy Report

Summary comments and outlook

The Bank forecasts that Canadian GDP will grow at 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026 and that a strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

As a result of an easing in broad price pressures, the Bank expects inflation to move closer to 2%, its long-stated goal. As a result, the Bank’s Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 basis points.

It further noted that while ongoing excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures, price pressures in some important parts of the economy—notably shelter and some other services—are “holding inflation up.”

Accordingly, the Bank said it is carefully assessing these “opposing forces.” Monetary policy decisions therefore will be guided by incoming information and the Bank’s assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook.

Once again, the statement noted in conclusion that the Bank remains “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”

Next Up

The Bank returns on September 4th with its next monetary policy announcement.