ORES Real Estate Index For January 2011
COMMENT: This is a very cool index I found that compares most investments to real estate. It is interesting right now as gold is at an all time high, oil is back up and Canadian real estate has held most of its value and is coming back.
- Wednesday, 16 February 2011 10:09
- Brian Madigan LL.B.
Here is the “ORES REAL ESTATE INDEX” which tracks the average resale prices of single family homes and condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). It also tracks certain benchmark comparisons such as the price of oil and gold, as well as the Consumer Price Index.
In addition, the stock market indices for Toronto, and the three largest US markets are also compared.
For ease of comparison, everything we look at is worth 100 points on the Index as of 1 January 2005. That time period compares favourably with the five year average used as a standard benchmark comparison in the mutual fund industry.
As of 31 January 2011, here is the Index representing average prices:
Real Estate
132.15…..GTA single family homes
130.87…..All condos in GTA
139.34…..Downtown Central Condos
122.53…..East condos
131.35…..West condos
124.97…..North condos
Other market comparisons
310.23…..gold (price per ounce)
206.98…..oil (price per barrel)
147.24…..TSX index
132.15…..ORES Index single family homes
111.59 …..CPI index
130.92…..NASDAQ index
113.37……Dow Jones index
108.88……S&P Index
Using the Index
Just a quick note on reading the information. Have a look at the ORES Index for Real Estate (single family homes). As of the end of January, the index stood at 132.15. That’s a 32.15% increase in 73 months. That means the increase is 0.404% monthly, or it could also be expressed as 5.28% annually. The performance here is shown without annual compounding for the sake of simplicity.
The other statistics are reported in a similar fashion for the ease of comparison.
Observations (on the Index)
As we use index, there are several notable comments:
• Commodity prices are just commodity prices
• There is no other “extra return” for commodities
• The same is true for the CPI
• The CPI is a benchmark to see whether you are keeping pace with inflation, that number is 111.59 (It has been modest and appears under control)
• For a realistic performance goal, you should aim for CPI plus 3.5% annually
• Stocks provide dividends in cash or extra stock. This return is additional to that shown in the stock market indices
• The stock market Indexes only measure the survivors. So, in 2009, both GM and Chrysler would have been dropped due to the bankruptcies
• If you held GM and Chrysler, you lost everything, but two new companies moved in to replace them in the Indexes
• Real estate offers a return in terms of occupancy. You can rent out the property and receive income, or occupy the property and enjoy it yourself
• Actually, I should have mentioned that if you held gold bullion, you could sit in a room, count it, and enjoy that experience too. I’m not quite sure how to measure that. You’ll have to ask King Midas or Goldfinger!
Comparative Observations Using the New Index
• Gold was the best performer, but reached its peak of 324.61 earlier In January
• Oil was the most volatile, (yes it dropped in half over our measurement period)
• Real estate was the most stable, with solid predictable returns at about 5.28% annually
• single family homes continue to show a better overall return than condos
• Our own stock market posted reasonable gains, and is now ahead of single family homes over the measurement period, however, don’t forget that the TSX is still well off its highs
• All three US stock market indicators now show positive numbers.
Conclusion
For steady, predictable, measured gains pick real estate. It’s a solid performer with lower risk (less volatility) and generally moving in a positive direction.
And remember, when it comes to real estate, it’s never “wiped out” completely, like GM or Chrysler stock. So, unless you’re sitting on the edge of a tsunami, you’ll still own something when the storm is over.
For a benchmark of success, there’s 1,000 years of history to point to a rate of return in real estate being about the equivalent of 5% per annum, simple interest (non-compounded). That means that real estate doubles in value every 20 years. There are a lot of companies (now bankrupt, including CanWest Global, and many US Banks) that would have been happy with that return.
Gold vending machines
I found this very interesting:
Gold vending machines go global
by By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
As economic fears drive gold prices to new highs, the creator of a gold-dispensing ATM is attracting attention around the globe.
Germany-based GOLD to go, which is currently churning out 50 gold machines a month to meet a recent jump in demand, launched its first ATM in Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Palace Hotel earlier this month and opened its second in Germany last week.
The golden ATM’s next destinations are the Bergamo Airport in Milan, Italy, all major airports in Malaysia, one of Russia’s biggest banks and an undetermined location in Turkey.
By making gold investing as easy as buying a candy bar from a vending machine, GOLD to go hopes to attract average buyers to the gold market.
“We are going to make gold public with these machines,” said Thomas Geissler, CEO of Ex Oriente Lux AG, which owns GOLD to go. “The prices are so easy to control that we’re going to de-mystify gold and make it easier for anyone to buy it.”
GOLD to go’s ATM looks like a vending machine and dispenses gold coins and bars weighing up to one ounce at prices updated every 10 minutes based on the real-time spot price of gold.
ATM-owners can choose from a variety of other gold items, such as gold Canadian maple leaf coins, South African Krugerrands, and even some custom designs. For example, the special edition gold medallion it engraved with the Palace Hotel’s logo was created for the United Arab Emirate debut.
Earlier this month, gold prices hit an all time high of nearly $1,250 per ounce, and the precious metal has continued to climb as euro zone countries struggle with debt and investors worry that the region’s problems could spread globally.
Until this uncertainty in the market eases, the demand for gold will only grow, said Carlos Sanchez, a precious metals analyst at CPM Group.
“[The ATM] is just a reflection of the demand from consumers and investors for exposure to gold,” he said. “As long as prices continue to trend upward and investors remain concerned over economic and political conditions, I think we’ll keep seeing strong demand for safe-haven assets like gold.”
Not for serious investors? While the ATMs could be a hit with wealthy travelers, the idea is unlikely to catch on with serious investors, said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors.
“It’s an interesting phenomenon, and I can see that wealthy and high-net-worth travelers might make impulse splurges on gold bars or coins, but I can’t see a serious investor buying gold through a vending machine,” he said.
Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, agreed, saying that he would be surprised if investors bought into the new invention, because unlike the spot market, ATMs don’t take your gold back when you want to sell it.
“Gold is a two-way market, so I would like to see that same machine buy back that gold and spit out cash,” said Nadler. “A gold-dispensing ATM is great, but a real ATM also accepts deposits.”
Nadler also said that GOLD to go’s higher prices may be a deterrent, especially to investors who want to purchase large amounts.
GOLD to go says that, like any physical gold vendor, it must apply a margin to its items. While the spot price for one ounce of gold was about $1,214 in midday trading on Thursday, GOLD to go was selling a 1-ounce gold bar for 1,044.86 euros, or approximately $1,284.13.
But the ATM’s popularity shows how much more available gold is becoming as demand picks up.
“It shows how attitudes toward gold are changing,” said Nichols. “Gold is available in more forms and through distributors that make it more accessible for average people around the world to buy gold.” http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/cnnmoney/gold-vending-machines-go-global-20100527