Calgary homes summary for 2013 and higher prices for 2014

Below is part of an article that notes all the in-bound migration supporting home prices …

Mark Herman

 

Calgary sales powered by economy

In Calgary, 16,302 single family homes changed hands, an eight per cent increase, and 4,007 condos were sold, a 14 per cent rise.

The benchmark price for a single-family home was $472,200 in December, an 8.6 per cent increase from the previous year.  

“Two consecutive years of elevated levels of net migration, combined with an improving job outlook and confidence surrounding long-term economic prospects, supported the demand growth,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board.

How strong the housing market remains in 2014 depends on interest rates.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warned in an interview Sunday that Canada will face global pressure to raise rates in 2014 as the U.S. Federal Reserve pulls back on its stimulus efforts and the U.S. economy rebounds.

Toronto and Calgary prices to continue upward

The Toronto Real Estate Board predicts price growth will continue to exceed inflation in 2014, largely because demand for low-rise houses continues to far outstrip supply.

… In Calgary, both prices and numbers of sales are expected to rise in 2014, the Calgary real estate board said, but the increases are not likely to be as steep as in 2013.

Property Tax assessments – add 6% to average home value

Your Calgary property tax assessment is probably going to go up by 6%. 

Mark Herman

City assessment finds values of residential properties in Calgary up 6% between 2013 and 2014

By ,Calgary Sun

First posted: Friday, January 03, 2014 07:59 PM MST | Updated: Friday, January 03, 2014 08:08 PM MST

Property values for both single family homes and condos are up in Calgary, according to the city’s assessment findings.

Based on market value on July 1, 2013 and the physical condition as of Dec. 31, 2013, the numbers were released Friday, the same day property and business assessment notices were mailed out.

The typical residential property assessment change is 6% between 2013 and 2014.

“We have certainly seen a really strong increase and sort of a re-setting of some of those values back before some of the financial crisis happened,” said city assessor Nelson Karpa.

Though it was considered a strong year, the highest market value shift was 43% between 2006 and 2007, reports the city.

This year, about 96% of residential properties’ revenue neutral taxes — pre-2014 tax rate changes — will stay within ±10% of last year’s taxes.

Though the percentage of change varies from community to community, those in the 0% to -10% are most heavily clustered on Calgary’s west side, in the inner city and in the deep south, while the northeast is dense with neighbourhoods in the 0% to 10% range.

“You’ll generally find properties that are lower in value typically will increase faster than properties that are higher value,” said Karpa, adding there’s a larger pool of people able to afford the less expensive homes….

http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/01/03/city-assessment-finds-values-of-residential-properties-in-calgary-up-6-between-2013-and-2014

 

What does Calgary housing have left for price increases in 2014?

This is part of Garry Marr’s article where he looks at what prices may do in 2014.

Mark Herman

Investors in Toronto continue to bet on price appreciation in the face of negative cash flow, leaving them vulnerable to a market shift.

 “If prices start to fall, we could see investors getting antsy and start to sell their units which could aggravate the market,” said Mr. Guatieri who nevertheless says the risk is low because  a spike in rates seems unlikely.

If there is a market that can support further price gains it is Calgary which has been a major benefactor of net-immigration growth. BMO noted Alberta attracted 53,000 more people in the last year than it lost.

“It’s not not just the rapid population growth but a young population and those are your first-time buyers,” said Mr. Guatieri, noting Calgary had a correction back in 2008-2009 when average prices fell 16%.

But the idea of a crash in 2014? He just doesn’t see it happening.

“I see [price growth ] still and that’s definitely true in Calgary.

here is a link to the rest of it: Republish Reprint: Garry Marr | December 17, 2013 | Last Updated: Dec 27 5:14 PM ET

Glut of job vacancies in Alberta; 52,800 vacancies – supports home prices

This is more great news and  more data on why people will continue to move to Alberta and need places to live thereby supporting home prices.

Mark Herman

Job vacancies in Alberta outstrip available labour

Province led the nation in employment opportunities in September

CBC News Posted: Dec 30, 2013 5:50 AM MT Last Updated: Dec 30, 2013 5:50 AM MT

Alberta employers have more job openings than there are job seekers to fill them.

Alberta continued to be the best place in the country for job-seekers in the fall of 2013.

Businesses in the province reported 52,800 vacant jobs in the month of September. Statistics Canada says that is fewer than the previous year, but still the highest number in the country.

Bruce Graham, the CEO of Calgary Economic Development, said the city is experiencing its lowest unemployment rate since the recession of 2008.

“We’re still considered very much a bright spot in the economic landscape of North America.”

Graham said employers are having difficulty recruiting workers.

For the full article see: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/job-vacancies-in-alberta-outstrip-available-labour-1.2477566

Renewing your mortgage early? It may cost you

We get this question all the time – should I renew early. Do early mortgage renewals save or cost you money? Below Rob does a great job summarizing the situation.

ROBERT MCLISTER

Special to The Globe and Mail

 A rate in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Many mortgage lenders want you to believe that rate certainty is worth paying a premium for. It is the justification, they say, for staying with them and renewing your mortgage early.

 Early renewal features typically let you lock in a new rate two to four months ahead of when your mortgage is due to mature. Some lenders, like Bank of Nova Scotia, even let you renew up to six months in advance.

 “Unless the consumer believes that interest rates are going to move up significantly prior to their ability to lock in, I fail to see a reason to do an early renewal with their existing lender,” says mortgage broker Calum Ross.

 By locking in earlier, you minimize risk of adverse rate movements. But in return, you pay a premium to the best available rates, and you’ll lose all benefit if rates drop before your term is up.

Not surprisingly, Canada’s big lenders are advocates of renewing your mortgage in advance. “We think it’s a good idea to have some room to manoeuvre [when locking in a renewal rate],” says David Stafford, Scotiabank’s managing director of real estate secured lending. Having more time to make a decision is especially important if you plan to renew with your current lender, as more than 90 per cent of customers do at Scotiabank…

… On the other hand, if your lender were pitching a “one-time-only” opportunity to renew early at 3.59 per cent or more, that warrants more skepticism. A 0.30-percentage-point rate difference would tack on $3,500 of extra interest on a $250,000 five-year term. (Note: This 3.59-per-cent rate is an actual early renewal “special” currently being offered by at least one major bank.)

I use 0.30 of a percentage point in my example on purpose: That’s roughly how high today’s best fixed rates can increase until they’re equal to a good early renewal rate.

But it’s not that often that rates jump 0.30 of a percentage point in 90 days. Since the 1950s, fixed rates have risen 0.30 of a percentage point over a three-month span only 21 per cent of the time. Mind you, we experienced one such case last May to July when rates soared three-quarters of a percentage point.

Either way, if lenders can get you to commit early, they will. By law, banks have to send you a renewal notice at least 21 days before the end of your existing term. But they’ll often contact you well in advance of that, which reduces the odds of you shopping around.

Positioning early renewals as a “convenience” or risk mitigator is a strategy that frequently pays off for lenders. According to the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, almost four out of 10 people who renew with the same lender do so at the original rate proposed by that lender. In other words, they don’t negotiate…

… “It is clear to me that consumers don’t do a good job at managing this part of their personal finances,” Mr. Ross adds, and that’s certainly true. If you want a great deal on your next mortgage renewal, one that could potentially save you thousands, remember that your lender’s first offer is seldom the best offer.

Robert McLister is the editor of CanadianMortgageTrends.com and a mortgage planner at VERICO intelliMortgage, a mortgage brokerage. You can also follow him on Twitter at @CdnMortgageNews.

Alberta still the fastest growing economy in Canada

Here is a bit about the post from last week where I noted that if Alberta were a country it would tie China for growth. No surprise Alberta hast he strongest economy in Canada. All this of course will support home prices while others move her for high quality jobs.

Mark Herman

Alberta Mortgage Broker

Alberta economy fastest growing in Canada

Forecast 3.4% annual growth in 2014

 By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald December 9, 2013 3:00 PM
 
Alberta’s economy will outperform all other provinces in 2014

CALGARY – Alberta has been the largest contributor to economic growth in the country for three consecutive years, outpacing the much larger economies of Central Canada, says a new report released Monday by the Conference Board of Canada.

And the board’s Provincial Outlook: Autumn 2013 report said Alberta will have the fastest growing provincial economy in 2014 with 3.4 per cent year-over-year growth.

Alberta will have the fastest growing provincial economy in 2014.

“Alberta’s outlook is so exceedingly bright right now in the context of all the risks that we’re seeing going on in the world. We’re seeing Alberta coming off two years of exceedingly strong growth,” said Todd Crawford, senior economist with the board. “And 2013, 2014, we’re going to see GDP growth of 3.2 per cent, 3.4 per cent over the next two years.

“It’s exceedingly strong and of course that’s all being driven in large part by the strength of the energy sector in the province. That’s not something that’s going to, or has changed, for much of the past decade.”

“Alberta’s economy is definitely the most resilient in Canada,” said Ben Brunnen, an economic consultant in Calgary. “No other province has grown by above 3.5 per cent each year since 2010. Strong resource demand will continue to drive Alberta’s economy into 2014, fuelling population and job growth, construction activity, and increased household spending.

Prime says at 1%. Probably till 2015.

Don’t read this entire thing. It is a sample of the stuff we read to keep you up on what is happening in mortgage land. Summary: Prime is to stay the same till about 2015. That means variable rates are a good idea now that they are at Prime – .5%. Consumer Prime is 3% so that is then 2.5% for a mortgage.

Mark Herman, Calgary, Alberta Mortgage Broker.

Bank of Canada keeps key interest rate unchanged at one per cent

THE CANADIAN PRESS December 4, 2013

The Bank of Canada is keeping its trendsetting overnight interest rate at one per cent.

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada says it sees some encouraging signs in the Canadian and global economies, but warned inflation remains too low to justify moving off its view that the recovery remains fragile and in need of monetary stimulus.As expected, the bank on Wednesday once again decided to keep in place its key rate at one per cent, a level that has helped keep borrowing costs near historic lows for several years.

But markets did not read the statement as neutral, apparently interpreting the bank’s caution that “downside risks to inflation appear to be greater” as a signal governor Stephen Poloz intends to keep interest rates low for an extended period — likely well into 2015 — and raising the possibility, although slim, of a rate cut next year.

The Canadian dollar dropped 0.31 of a cent to 93.6 cents U.S. — its lowest level since May 2010 — on the announcement.

Analysts said that may be just what governor intended, as he continued to emphasize the need for Canada to pick up its exports performance before it can create self-sustaining growth. A weak currency helps exporters compete in foreign markets.

“I think it’s quite telling that since the last meeting we’ve got better than expected growth and lower than expected inflation, and what does the bank focus on but the lower than expected inflation,” noted Doug Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.

“I would almost think, if I didn’t know better, there’s a drive here to push the Canadian even lower. Let’s just say they are not unhappy about the weakness of the currency.”

In October, Poloz unexpectedly dropped a tightening bias that had been in place for 18 months, with the result that the loonie fell immediately almost a full cent.

The bank has repeatedly insisted it is not targeting a weak dollar, but Porter noted that other central banks, particularly in Australia and some other economies that lean on exports, have taken the direct route in openly talking their currencies down.

RBC economist Dawn Desjardins said the weakening loonie versus the U.S. greenback provides additional support for Canadian exporters to take advantage of what is expected to be a long-awaited rise in demand in the United States.

“Increased demand for exports will be a key factor in boosting the economy’s growth rate above its potential in 2014 and reducing the amount of excess capacity,” she said in a note to clients, while adding that the downside risks to inflation will ease.

Statistics Canada said Wednesday the country’s trade balance with the world came to a surplus of $75 million compared with a deficit of $303 million in September.

The shift came as imports slipped 1.2 per cent while exports decreased 0.3 per cent in October.

The central bank announcement Wednesday, read as a whole, suggested the bank has not materially changed its mind about the trend of the economy since October’s rather gloomy monetary policy report, despite the fact that third-quarter growth was far stronger than it estimated.

Porter said if the bank had said “ditto October” rather than emphasizing inflation Wednesday, it would have gotten no arguments from economists.

In its analysis, the central bank acknowledged third-quarter growth, which was reported at 2.7 per cent last month, was better than the 1.7 it had pencilled in in October, but essentially looked through the improvement.

It said underlying conditions were weaker than it appeared, noting sustainable growth requires a rotation from domestic activity — in particular housing and consumer spending — to more export growth and businesses spending. That has not happened yet, it said.

“Real GDP growth in the third quarter … was stronger than the bank was projecting, but its composition does not yet indicate a rebalancing towards exports and investment,” it said. “Business investment spending is up from previous low levels, but is still recovering more slowly than anticipated.”

It also said it was encouraged that U.S. growth as stronger than expected, although it pointed out that some of that was due to temporary factors also.

As Poloz emphasized in October and at recent appearances before House of Commons and Senate committees, the bank’s governing council is particularly focused on the low inflation rate, as an indicator of “significant excess supply” in the economy.

Heightened competition in the retail sector, a likely reference to new entrants in the Canadian market, such as the Target chain, and lower gas prices, are also playing a role in low inflationary pressures, the statement said.

Given the counter-balancing factors, the statement concluded that “on balance, the bank sees no reason to adjust its expectation of a gradual return to full production capacity around the end of 2015.”

That assessment is unlikely to significantly change the opinion of most economists and markets that Poloz expects to stay on the sidelines as far as adjusting interest rates throughout 2014, and that the first change will be a 25-basis point increase in the overnight rate sometime in 2015, with a slim chance of a rate cut if conditions deteriorate.

But that is not the bank’s baseline scenario. Particularly regarding the key U.S. economy, the statement notes that the improved data of late “are consistent with the bank’s view of a gathering momentum in the U.S. economy.”

Poloz appears sanguine about what is occurring in the Canadian housing market, even if some analysts fear a sharp correction. He took note of the recent resurgence in sales, but said it was “consistent with updated demographic data” and the view that some buyers jumped into the market to get ahead of expected mortgage rate increases.

“The bank continues to expect a soft landing in the housing market,” it said.

As for the global economy, it notes that it is expanding “at a modest rate” as expected.

© Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette

Prime could double by end fo 2015.

All the more reason to take the 5 year fixed rate. Here is some fuel for the fire of fixed rates- which have never been this low! Below you can read the boring data we digest daily to give you the best un-biased opinion on your mortgage.

Does your banker do this for you – no way!

Mark Herman, Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker.

OECD calls for Bank of Canada rate to more than double to 2.25% by end of 2015

Gordon Isfeld | 19/11/13 7:11 AM ET

Most economists believe the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and the central bank won’t budge off 1% until the first quarter of 2015, and perhaps even later.

 
Canadian Press: Most economists believe the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and the central bank won’t budge off 1% until the first quarter of 2015, and perhaps even later.

OTTAWA — Just last month, the Bank of Canada dropped a mini-bombshell by adopting a neutral position on interest rates, after long insisting that any eventual move would be up.

That left open the real possibility the central bank may, instead, lower borrowing costs — at least until the struggling economy regains its momentum.

Textbook economics would say that deflation should have already arrived at our doorstep.

Now, the global think-tank that helps guide countries along a growth path says Canada’s central bank may actually resume its course for higher rates — beginning as early as next year — as that economic momentum returns and inflation starts to pick up speed.

“With spare capacity narrowing by the end of 2015, monetary policy tightening may need to begin by late 2014 to avoid a build-up of inflationary pressures,” the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

The first move above the bank’s current 1% lending level — where it has been since September 2010 — will likely come in the fourth quarter of 2014, the Paris-based organization said in the report, and continue rising to 2.25% by the end of 2015.

Many economists have been expecting the first move, if it is up, to come in the first quarter of 2015.

“The pause in the economic recovery since early 2012 has continued this year,” the OECD said its economic outlook for Canada, part of a larger global report.

“Exports have been weaker than expected, possibly reflecting shifts in trade linkages and on-going competitiveness challenges. This, together with declining corporate profits, has depressed business investment.”

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

The OECD said this “suggests that investment growth will remain low in the near term, with firms using existing capacity more intensively.”

But exports and business investment should begin turning around through 2014 and 2015, leading to growth of 2.3% next year and 2.6% a year later, it said. In 2012, the Canadian economy edged ahead by 1.7% and the organization is forecasting the same pace this year.

“Projected growth should be enough to absorb the small degree of remaining excess capacity by end-2015, and the inflation rate should increase to near the [Bank of Canada’s] 2% target rate.”

The OECD, which has 34 member nations with both advanced and emerging economies, is predicting the world economy will expand by 2.7% this year, followed by 3.6% growth in2014.

The United States, which will remain Canada’s biggest trading partner for the foreseeable future despite free-trade deals in other regions, should grow by 1.7% this year and ramp up 2.9% in 2014.

The eurozone has managed two quarters of modest growth so far this year, after emerging from a long recession. But the OECD predicts another contraction — of 0.4% — this year, before returning to growth of 1% in 2014.

“The main risks to the projections are ongoing uncertainty about the U.S. economy and the potential for renewed tensions in sovereign-debt markets and the financial sector in the euro area,” the OECD said.

“Both factors could reduce exports and tighten financial conditions, reducing economic growth.”

The report also warned that a “disorderly correction” in Canada’s real estate market and the impact on highly indebted households “would depress consumption and residential construction and, in an extreme case, could threaten financial stability.”

That is a concern shared by the Finance Department and Bank of Canada. Both have cautioned consumers not to binge on the current cheap-credit environment. The concern is that households could be caught in a spiral of rising interest payments and shrinking equity in their homes if the market turns cold.

Last week, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he was prepared to tighten lending rules on home purchases — as he has four times in four years — if too many Canadian are seen getting in over their heads with mortgage debt.

Meanwhile, on the same day the central bank surprised analysts by dropping its rate-increase bias, governor Stephen Poloz and his policy team downgraded their outlook for the economy.

In its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, released on Oct. 23, the bank said Canada’s economy will likely grow by 1.6% this year, down from its July outlook of 1.8%. For 2014, the estimate was cut to 2.3% from 2.7%, while the forecast for 2015 is now 2.6%, down from 2.7%

Averge YYC home prices to be > $500,000 in 2017

I have had many people ask what home prices are going to do over the next 4 or 5 years. Well here are the numbers!

Remember, if Alberta were a country our growth would be the same as the world leader – China! – Mark Herman, Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker.

Calgary resale home average prices to balloon to more than half a million dollars

Report says average to hit $517,016 in 2017

CALGARY – The average price for a resale home in Calgary will balloon to more than half a million dollars by 2017, according to a new real estate report released Tuesday.

The Conference Board of Canada’s Autumn Metropolitan Housing Outlook, commissioned by Genworth Canada, said the average price for all residential property in Calgary will grow from $431,760 this year to $517,016 in 2017.

“Calgary is facing a lack of inventory in particular areas,” said Tanya Eklund, a realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central) in Calgary.

“Buyers looking for land for redevelopment and homes for renovation have been in very short supply and have driven up pricing due to multiple offers and low inventory. Low interest rates, strong unemployment rates, low vacancy rates and an overall strong economy have also added to strength in the Calgary market.”

Calgary’s economy and housing demand continue to thrive as energy sector activity remains healthy. Rising GDP is spurring employment growth,” said the report.

“On the resale housing market front, solid sales will lead to sound price gains this year and next. The new housing market is benefitting from strong absorptions, which are trimming unsold stocks of new units and fostering new construction. The medium term also looks decent.

“Ongoing economic growth will continue to produce gains in resale sales and prices and keep housing starts above their 20-year average. Good housing affordability, measured against local incomes, is an ongoing benefit to this market and allows single-family starts to maintain a high market share compared with other cities covered in this report.”

The report said summertime flooding in Calgary will limit Calgary’s GDP to 3.3 per cent growth in 2013, modest by recent standards. Output will rise a slightly faster 3.4 per cent in 2014, spurred by government-funded rebuilding efforts.

The job market will continue to expand, with annual growth of 2.4 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2014 cutting the unemployment rate from 4.9 per cent this year to 4.6 per cent in 2014. Economic health should continue between 2015 and 2017, with GDP expanding roughly three per cent and employment rising about two per cent each year, it said.

“Calgary’s strong economic fundamentals allowed its resale market to largely shrug off the floods. Seasonally-adjusted sales and the average resale price actually rose during June, the flood month, and have subsequently advanced,” said the report.

“Price growth is accelerating, although increases remain far below boom-era advances. We expect the market to remain balanced and price growth to stay healthy in 2014 and over the following few years.”

The report’s forecast for average prices over the next few years and annual growth rate are:

2013: $431,760, 4.7%
2014: $451,798, 4.6%
2015: $473,470, 4.8%
2016: $497,139, 5.0%
2017, $517,016, 4.0%

Forecast for sales in the resale market for the next few years and annual growth rate are:

2013, 28,111, 5.5%
2014, 28,793, 2.4%
2015, 29,418, 2.2%
2016, 30,027, 2.1%
2017, 30,620, 2.0%

“Unsurprisingly, Calgary’s resale prices are rising briskly. Year-over-year growth has averaged a solid 4.6 per cent in the latest four quarters, including a first quarter jump near eight per cent,” said the report. “These increases will lift Calgary’s average price 4.7 per cent in 2013, the largest gain since 2007 and finally exceeding that year’s peak value. Similar price growth is expected between 2014 and 2016, with a slight tapering in growth to four per cent in 2017.

“These increases will slightly erode local housing affordability. Principle and interest charges on Calgary’s average resale home were under 16 per cent of average household income the last two years and are expected to remain there in 2013. But house prices will rise faster than incomes, pushing the ratio to roughly 20 per cent by 2017. This remains decent, as affordability is better only in Edmonton, Ottawa, and Winnipeg among the cities in this report.”

The report said buoyant housing demand is also energizing the new home market. Absorption of new units averaged 11,200 units in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2013, up 25 per cent from a year earlier. This included a surge to an annualized 15,000 units in the second quarter, the most since 2008. This strength will lift absorptions to a full-year total of 12,140 units in 2013, up 25 per cent from 2012. Another increase of nearly six per cent in absorptions is expected for 2014, but still trailing the peak of 13,700 units reached in 2008.

“Healthy new-unit take-up fuelled a big jump in housing starts to 13,186 units in 2012, more than double the recessionary trough in 2009, but well off peak levels of the last decade,” it said. “We expect starts to ease a modest 2.7 per cent in 2013 as an 11 per cent dip in multiple starts slightly outweighs a seven per cent gain in single-detached starts. For 2014, rebounding multiple starts will fuel a five per cent increase in total starts despite relatively unchanged single-detached construction.

“In the medium term, we expect housing starts to ease slightly, as both single-family and multiple construction dip. By 2017, we expect 11,400 units to get under way; this would slightly outpace the 20-year average of housing starts. While multiple starts are expected to increase their market share, they are forecast to make up only 52 per cent of total starts between 2013 and 2017.”

mtoneguzzzi@calgaryherald.com

Calgary housing boom pushing prices to all-time high

Below in blue I have highlighted the most important part of this and paste it here too: “the Calgary numbers we’re seeing today show this is the strongest and healthiest housing market since the 2006 boom,” he said. “That said, this isn’t the boom — and that’s a good thing.”

As always, sustained growth  – as high as China if Alberta were a country – has people moving here and they have to live somewhere. Check out my other blog posts for more on this topic. Mark Herman

 

Single-family homes average more than half a million dollars

CALGARY – Calgary’s booming housing market is pushing average prices to record levels as single-family home sales so far this year are averaging well above half a million dollars.

“The residential real estate market is holding strong for sellers,” said Grace Yan, a Calgary realtor with RE/MAX Real Estate (Central).

“It usually slows down for Christmas season but we are realizing that it remains at a steady rise. We are still finding a shortage of listings, lots of activity with shorter days on the market. We are finding from fixer uppers, inner-city properties to turnkey luxury high-end homes in demand. We anticipate the steady market to continue to heat up for the new year.”

As of Thursday, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board, the average MLS sale price for all residential property in the city so far this year has been $457,123. The annual record is $428,649 set last year. In 2004, average sale prices in the city were $227,269.

So far this year, the average MLS sale price for a single-family home is $517,598. The annual record price of $481,259 was set last year. In 2004, the average was $251,558.

On Friday the Canadian Real Estate Association released its latest MLS data for October showing that Calgary had the best year-over-year gain in the country in the MLS Home Price Index.

CREA said prices in Calgary, for homes tracked by the index, rose by 8.17 per cent from last year while the national average of 11 markets surveyed was up by 3.52 per cent.

Scott Bollinger, broker with the ComFree Commonsense Network, said there was a little softness in the market last year because of the introduction of tighter mortgage rules.

“But the Calgary numbers we’re seeing today show this is the strongest and healthiest housing market since the 2006 boom,” he said. “That said, this isn’t the boom — and that’s a good thing. 2006 was marked by some things we’re not seeing today — a massive inventory crunch, irrational exuberance and confidence that the market would stay strong indefinitely, and almost unthinkable economic growth. We saw six and seven per cent growth in 2006.

“Our economy today is growing at a nice, measured, healthy rate — three, three-and-a-half per cent. So we’re still seeing confidence, but it’s not the same extreme. There’s a collective memory in this city of the boom, so I think this strength we’re seeing is more sustainable. Houses are still selling quicker, but they’re nowhere near the frenzied pace we saw in 2006, when the average time on market dipped to 20 days.”

In October, Calgary had 2,510 MLS sales, up 19.3 per cent from last year. Alberta registered 5,588 sales, up 16.1 per cent, and Canada had 39,039 MLS sales for an annual hike of 8.3 per cent.

Average sale prices in October and their year-over-year increase were: Calgary, $436,216, 4.2 per cent; Alberta, $377,084, 3.8 per cent; and Canada, $391,820, 8.5 per cent.

Calgary’s real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down in November. Month-to-date including Thursday, there have been 830 MLS sales in the city, up 34.30 per cent from the same period a year ago, according to CREB. The average sale price has also climbed by 7.47 per cent to $463,126.

Doug Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said there are two notable splits developing in Canada’ housing market – larger cities are hot, while smaller cities are generally not, and sales in the West are strong, but are weakening in much of the East.

“When judged by total sales volumes, a measure that combines both price changes and the number of units sold, the hottest markets this year are Calgary, Edmonton, and, against all expectations, Vancouver,” he said. “All three have reported double-digit volume increases, the only cities in that category.”

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com