Advice on Mortgage Renewals Before April 2026 from an MBA
Questions on what product to pick for your upcoming mortgage renewal.
Here are the reasons that we like the 5 year fixed for Canadian mortgage renewals over the next few months.
(renewals from now, February 2nd until April 1st.)
This data is recent and should be good for the next few months.
Below are the graphs that show that rates are trending up and are on the increase.
Q: Why are rates trending up?
A: Because Trump policy is generally inflationary, and add in the “cost of uncertainty” due to changing tariffs and other world political issues we have an increasing rate environment.
Big Picture Perspective
I also look at from this perspective, rates were close to 4% BEFORE Covid in 2020, and we are now back to about the same; 3.99% for a 3-year fixed and 4.25% to 4.54% for a 5 year fixed rate term.
- Comparing these rates, there is not much room for rates to go down; maybe .5%, half a percent.
- But there is lots of room for them to go up.
What if things get out of hand and rates are at 6% or 7%?
When I started out in 2004, my first customer’s rate was 8.99% and they were happy it did not start with a 9. (You always remember your first deal.)
Summary
The rates for the 3 year fixed and the 5 year fixed are similar so take the 5 year and know you are getting a good rate at the bottom of the rate cycle.
If you take the 3 year and rates DO go up, and you then renew 2 years sooner into what could be 6% or 7% rate environment (when you could have had 2 more years at 4.zz%.) You will be pretty upset as your new monthly payment would now be higher even though your balance is lower.
If you take the 3 year fixed and the rates stay low then you gain a slightly lower payment ($25/ month) over the first 3 years.
Most of our customers agree the safer bet is less expensive when you factor in how sound you will sleep at night.
Mortgage Mark Herman, best Calgary broker for mortgage renewals and advice.
