The Canadian economy continues to keep policymakers at the Bank of Canada guessing.  The key contributor to the quandary continues to be U.S. tariffs, and that puzzle has just become even more complicated.

As of August first, the U.S. increased its tariff rate on imported Canadian goods to 35%, up from 25%, except for products covered by the CUSMA trade deal.  What that means remains to be seen, but any economic slowdown, inflation or unemployment triggered by the increase will figure into the BoC’s decision-making on its policy rate.

In the meantime, the Bank is monitoring a Canadian economy that has been remarkably resilient in the face of the tariff upheaval, so far.

The Bank of Canada once again held its benchmark, overnight policy rate steady at 2.75%, where it has been since the March setting.  The latest decision follows an increase in the June inflation reading from 1.7% to 1.9%, while core inflation remains stuck at about 3.0%. There was also a surprisingly strong employment report in June, with the economy creating 83,000 new jobs.  As well, expectations for Canada’s gross domestic product remain optimistic.

The latest report from Statistics Canada – which came out after the rate setting – shows GDP dropped 0.1% in May, as it did in April.  But, StatsCan’s early forecast for June suggests an increase and, as a result, GDP growth of 0.1% for the second quarter of 2025.

Market watchers say new data, coming this month, will give the BoC a clearer and truer view of the Canadian economy.  For those who are waiting for further interest rate relief, many of the experts say it will be September, or even October, before the Bank makes another move.