Upcoming Interest Rate Announcement – No Change Anticipated
It is almost that time again, when eyes will turn towards Mark Carney and the Bank of Canada to see if interest rates will stay put again this time around.
The next announcement, slated for Tuesday May 31, comes at an interesting time. Throughout the first part of this year, it was widely believed that interest rates had stayed as low as they could, and for as long as they could, and the prediction was that rates would begin to creep up as early as this spring.
However, as with many predications, several things were not foreseen in the forecasting.
What has happened most notably in advance of this latest announcement- was unpredicted behaviour on a number of fronts. Consumer prices across many categories have been rising rapidly (although fell slightly below expectations last month), but are clearly displaying an upward trend. Inflation, while still manageable, is running a little too high to be ignored as a factor as well.
So, rates will rise at some point, but given the existence of some volatile conditions in the market, and fears that a rate hike will erode an already tenuous hold on affordability due to rising prices, the question is, is that time now?
According to a survey done by Reuters last week, forecasters predict that a rate hike will not happen until Q3 2011. It is widely believed that rates will go up to 1.25% in the third quarter from the current 1%. Almost unanimously, the forecasters polled agreed that the announcement on May 31 will be a rate hold- again.
Supporting these findings, three of the major banks have also indicated that they don’t expect to see rate hikes until the fall either.
If all of this comes to pass, it is good news for the Canadian housing market. The time-limited offer of ultra-low interest rates will get extended. Coupled with the fact that this will end at some time contributes to a sense of urgency as well.
How does this translate into daily business for Real Estate and for the Mortgage professions? Propertywire.ca asked some members of the community.
Tara Gibson, Mortgage Broker, TAG Financial – Mortgage Alliance TAG Mortgages, agrees that rates will remain steady for the time being, but thinks that an increase could come as early as the summer. “In my opinion, our strong dollar is enough to predict that we won’t see an increase in interest rates this time; more likely in July. The question is, will discounts on Prime change with the lenders? I think we may start seeing this compress a bit soon enough; in fact, some lenders have already started to close the gap. Many clients are currently choosing to go with a variable rate; simple case of supply and demand, prices go up with increased demand.”
“Despite all the pressure to see interest rates increase, industry experts believe that the Bank of Canada and lenders will increase rates at a slow rate. Advice to borrowers, if you want a variable, get in on the rate holds before we see more lenders change the discount! Further to that and much more important, global uncertainty is only postponing the inevitable, rates WILL go up so make sure you are fully prepared to handle the change when you go to renew your mortgage in 5 or 10 years!”
Trish Pigott,Broker/Owner, Primex Mortgages agrees too that status quo will be the order of the day on Tuesday. “I’m sure they are going to remain steady and unchanged. The majority of economists were predicting July as our next increase but they are now changing that until September and even some as early as next year. With our global economy in the state it’s in, I can’t see it changing much until the rest of the world stabilizes.”
New-to-Canada mortgages for immigrants have been around for years!
Do you want to read some total BS-PR-spin that the banks put out? Below is a press release from a bank patting themselves on the bank for lending to new immigrants. Funny thing is that this program that they have “developed” has been around for more than 7 years. All they did was sign up for the CMHC New to Canada program that every other lender that we use has had since I started doing this in 2004! Good job ING. Way to do what every one else is doing. Many years late.
Getting a mortgage in this country may have just gotten slightly easier.
ING Direct Bank, recognizing the overwhelming desire for most Canadians, particularly with newcomers to the country, to realize the dream of home ownership is modifying its’ lending criteria.
In a release, ING Direct Bank said, “ING DIRECT, the country’s 6th largest mortgage lender, announced today it is offering its popular unmortgage to permanent and non-permanent residents with limited or no credit history. Permanent and non-permanent residents include those who have been residing in Canada for no longer than 60 months. “
ING Direct recognizes the sheer numbers and the tremendous influence that immigration plays- not just in the makeup of the Canadian population, but in the marketplace as well. As such, they are developing product to meet that need.
“At ING DIRECT, our goal has always been to give the power of saving to all Canadians, so offering our unmortgage to new residents allows us to stay true to that promise,” said Peter Aceto, President and CEO of ING DIRECT Canada. “We want to give newcomers access to the same products and savings opportunities we have been providing to Canadians for the last 14 years”
Motivated by the desire to establish a banking relationship right from day one with newcomers to this country, ING Direct jumped into action to provide a solution for people trying to establish their credit history.
Aceto says, “We have always been committed to making the mortgage experience better for our clients. For newcomers to Canada, our product is simple and easy to understand. We always provide the best rates upfront and guarantee those rates for up to 120 days after applying, and our flexible pre-payment options allow our clients to own their homes sooner by paying as little interest as possible over the life of the mortgage.”
Canada is known globally for its’ stringent lending policies- which are partly to thank for escaping the recent recession relatively unscathed.
While qualifying for a mortgage may have loosened slightly, it is likely not a sign that credit criteria is less stringent generally. Qualifying for a mortgage , while taking credit history into account, generally has some different criteria, because it is as much about the asset that is securing the debt, and the amount of cash available to pay for ongoing expenses.
Five steps to scoring a mortgage
This is a great general article on how to get ready to qualify for a mortgage. There are also great reports on the economy and why buying now is a good idea
by: Amy Fontinelle Investopedia.com
A variety of factors can keep you from qualifying for a mortgage. The big ones include a low credit score, insufficient income for the size of the loan you want, insufficient down payment and excessive debt. All of these factors are within your control, however. Let’s take a look at your options for overcoming any liabilities you may have as a borrower
1. Repair Your Credit and Increase Your Score
To lenders, your credit score represents the likelihood that you will make your mortgage payments in full and on time every month. Therefore, with most loans, the lower your credit score, the higher your interest rate will be to compensate for the increased risk of lending you money. If your credit score is below 620, you will be considered subprime and will have difficulty getting a loan at all, let alone one with favourable terms. On the other hand, if you have a credit score above 800, you’ll easily be able to get the best interest rate available (also known as the par rate). (Find out how your borrowing activities affect your credit rating in The Importance Of Your Credit Rating.)
Measures you can take to improve your credit score relatively quickly include paying down revolving consumer debts, such as credit cards or auto loans, using your debit card instead of your credit cards for future purchases, paying your bills on time every month and correcting any errors on your credit report. However, some flaws, like seriously late payments, collections, charge-offs, bankruptcy and foreclosure, will only be healed with time. (Read How To Dispute Errors On Your Credit Report to find out how to address reporting mistakes.)
In addition to managing your existing credit responsibly, don’t open any new credit accounts. Applying for new credit temporarily lowers your credit score, and having too much available credit is also considered a warning sign. Lenders may be afraid that if you have a lot of available credit, you’ll take advantage of it one day and adversely affect your ability to make your mortgage payments. (For more tips and techniques to help you rebuild your ruined credit rating, read Five Keys To Unlocking A Better Credit Score.)
2. Get a Higher-Paying Job
If lenders say your income isn’t high enough, ask them (or your mortgage broker) how much more you need to earn to qualify for the loan amount you want. Then try to find a new job in your existing line of work where you’ll be able to earn that much money.
Because lenders like to see a steady employment history, you’ll have to stay in the same line of work for this strategy to be successful. This can be disappointing news for borrowers, as switching professions entirely might offer the best chances for a salary increase. However, switching companies can also be a good way to get a significant boost in income. Significant raises from existing employers aren’t that common, but a new employer knows he’ll have to offer something special to get you to make the switch. (Read Negotiating For Employment Perks for tips on reaching an agreement with your boss.)
If switching companies right now won’t be enough to get the raise you need, think about things you can do relatively quickly to make yourself more valuable to employers. Is there a continuing education program that you could complete? If you’re a legal secretary, could you become a paralegal? If you’re a receptionist, could you become a secretary? A career counselor or headhunter might be able to give you some guidance specific to your situation about how to improve your marketability and how to reach your income goals. (Read Six Steps To Successfully Switching Financial Careers to learn how to make adjustments without starting over.)
Unfortunately, getting a part-time job on top of your full-time job may not provide what lenders consider qualifying income. The part-time job may be viewed as temporary, and since it will probably take you at least 15 years to pay off your mortgage, lenders are looking for you to have long-term income stability. (Increase Your Disposable Income gives you ideas on how to make more money now, which can make a big difference down the line.)
3. Save Like Crazy
The larger your down payment, the smaller the loan you’ll need. In addition, the lower your loan-to-value ratio (LTV ratio), the less risky lenders will consider you. Both of these factors will make you more likely to qualify for a loan. Be aware that you may have to reach a certain down payment threshold, like 10 per cent or 20 per cent (with 20 per cent being the most conventional), before a larger down payment will help you qualify for a loan. (Learn more in Mortgages: How Much Can You Afford?)
4. Don’t Pay More Than the Bank’s Appraised Value
The bank will not want to lend more than the house is worth because they could be on the losing end of the deal, should you foreclose and owe more than the bank could get for it. A 20 per cent down payment also becomes much less valuable if the house is worth 20 per cent less than the purchase price. Collateral value is important to lenders, so it should be kept in mind when making an offer to purchase a property. (Read 10 Tips For Getting A Fair Price On A Home and learn how to make sure your house is worth the price you pay.)
5. Reduce Your Debt
To a lender, what constitutes excessive debt is not a set number – it’s a total monthly debt payment that is too high for you to be able to afford the monthly mortgage payment you’re asking for. When deciding how much loan you qualify for, lenders will look at what’s called the front-end ratio, or the percentage of your gross monthly income that will be taken up by your house payment (principal, interest, property tax and homeowners insurance), and the back-end ratio, or the percentage of your gross monthly income that will be taken up by the house payment plus your other monthly obligations, such as student loans, credit cards and car payments.
The more debt you’re required to pay off each month, whether it’s “good debt” like a student loan or “bad debt” like a high-interest credit card, the lower the monthly housing payment lenders will decide you can afford, and the lower the purchase price you’ll be able to afford. Decreasing your debt is one of the fastest and most effective ways to increase the size of loan you’re eligible for. (Learn what to watch for before you find yourself drowning in debt in Five Signs That You’re Living Beyond Your Means.)
Playing to Win
Qualifying for a mortgage isn’t always easy. Lenders require all applicants to meet certain financial tests and guidelines and allow a limited amount of flexibility within those rules. If you want to score a mortgage, you’ll have to learn how to play the game, and you’re likely to win if you take the steps outlined here http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/five-steps-to-scoring-a-mortgage/article1925218/page2/
Why you do not want a collateral mortgage from TD or RBC
Broker: Clients now suffering collateral damage from collateral mortgages
I have had to say “sorry, we can not help you” to clients with collateral mortgages more than ever in the last year. TD and RBC offer them and here is the bad news about what they mean below.
Short version is: they are not normal mortgages as you promise everything you have to pay them back so they could force you into bankruptcy AND other banks will not let you move into one of their mortgages from one of these so you have to pay legal and possibly appraisal fees again. These added costs usually make it uneconomic to get out of one of these mortgages and move to a different bank for better rates.
Broker fears that growth in collateral mortgages could darken their business horizons have come true, said one broker, pointing to his own impaired capacity to service clients.
“We’re saying ‘no’ more often now than we did in the past, and I can think of no less than six people since last year that we’ve simply had to turn away because there was nothing we could do for them,” David O’Gorman, broker/owner of MortgageLand Inc. in Markham, Ont., told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “It’s because they’ve signed up for a collateral mortgage with the banks, and have pledged all their equity to that bank. It makes it all but impossible for a second lender to come behind and provide a second mortgage or refinancing or even for a homeowner to switch lenders at renewal.”
Last fall, O’Gorman and other brokers raised the specter of a loss of business stemming from collateral mortgages when one of the major banks announced all new home loans would be secured by promissory note and backed by collateral – usually a first or second lien on the property. That supporting charge can be for as much as 125 per cent of the value, although, doesn’t, in fact, mean the borrower will have access to all those funds.
The collateral charges allow lenders to switch up the interest rate on a loan and lend more money to qualified borrowers after closing, without the client incurring additional legal costs. There is, however, a downside: they also limit the borrower’s ability to shop around for a new lender at renewal or to win refinance or to take out a second mortgage at another institution.
Most mono-lines and banks – as well as the private lenders O’Gorman deals with – refuse to accept the transfer of collateral mortgages, forcing homeowners to pay additional fees to register a new conventional or collateral mortgage in order to move the loan from the lending institution.
The consequences for homeowners are tremendous, said O’Gorman, who wrote to Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty last November, outlining his concerns. He also challenged the motives of the bank industry, now prepared to extend its collateral mortgage portfolio.
“Lending money to people, with ‘different to the norm’ conditions and increasing the borrower’s exposure to significant loss, all the while flogging a cheap closing service, enticing the borrower to go without the opportunity of having an independent legal opinion of the documents they are signing, just plain stinks,” he wrote in the two-page letter. “We will have to wait awhile for a decision by a judge crushing the ‘one-sidedness’ of these contracts. In the meantime a significant number of consumers will make ill-informed decisions, unless consumers and/or bank regulators take action.”
A policy advisor for Flaherty did contact O’Gorman for a brief discussion, although the broker doubts the matter will move beyond that initial outreach. He’s more certain about potential negatives for the broker channel as banks continue to shift to collateral mortgages, used to help them retain clients for the full life of the mortgage and not just the first five-year term.
“This is all going to end when mortgage brokers are all working for the banks and they’ve eaten up all the business,” he told MortgageBrokerNews.ca, echoing the sentiments of more than 30 comments posted on the site last fall. “I’ll still make a living, but I’m also concerned about making sure that people are treated fairly.”
Why I paid $10,000 to break my mortgage
Below is a great article about why paying the payout penalty can be worth it for you. We always do the math for you to ensure that it is a better deal AND we also include any other costs in that math – like an appraisal and legal costs – lots of other brokers do not. Ensure ALL the costs are included in the math before making the change.
Want to ensure it is worth it – give us a call for a free 5-minute mortgage checkup at 403-681-4376.
Tara Walton/Toronto Star By Bryan Borzykowski |
Last September, my wife and I started scouring the city for a new house. We were living in a cozy bungalow, but with a growing kid and another on the way, we decided it was time to move.
Buying a new house is, of course, expensive, so I wanted to do whatever it took to reduce my costs. Most of the fees couldn’t be avoided, but there was one costly payment I desperately wanted to steer clear from: The mortgage penalty charge.
I had just over 12 months left on my five-year mortgage term, which meant that I either had to break my mortgage or stay with my current lender by transferring my mortgage to my new house. The latter option would have allowed me to avoid the fee. However, my lender couldn’t give me the best interest rate.
The new lender, a bank, was offering a variable rate of 2.25 per cent, a much lower rate than my old lender was willing to offer. I calculated that over the term I’d be better off paying the fee and taking the lower rate.
It was going to cost me $10,000 to break my contract. It felt like an unnecessary cost — I paid my lender so much in interest over the four years, why would I have to cough up so much cash?
I asked my broker to see if the lender would waive the fee, even though I was using a new lender for my next house, but they didn’t. Peter Veselinovich, vice-president of banking and mortgage operations at Investors Group, isn’t surprised. “The charge isn’t negotiable,” he says.
While the penalty may seem like an arbitrary sum, it’s not a cash-grab, he says.
The lender takes mortgage funds from money invested in GICs and other products and then it pays investors interest on those investments.
The idea is to match a five-year mortgage with a five-year GIC, so investors can get paid back at the same time as the mortgage comes due.
If a mortgage is broken, the lender needs to come up with money to fill the gap between the investment coming due and the mortgage ending. Hence the fee. The lender then takes that lump sum and invests it, so it can pay investors back when its GIC comes due.
The penalty is calculated two ways: you either pay 90 days of interest or what’s called an interest-rate differential, which is a penalty based on your old rate and a new rate based on a shorter term.
For example, let’s say you wanted to exit your 5 per cent five-year term with three years left to go. The lender would look at the current three-year term rate, which, say, is 3 per cent, and then charge you interest on the difference, 2 per cent, for 36 months. The sum also depends on how much money you still owe the bank.
However it’s calculated, the payment can be huge.
Darick Battaglia, a mortgage broker and owner of Dominion Lending Centres’ Barrie location, says that while it may seem as though people have to empty their bank account to pay the penalty, ultimately, by paying the lower rate, they’re getting that money back in mortgage savings.
Whether you’re moving houses, or just want to break a mortgage to take advantage of a lower interest rate, people often pay the penalty so they can free up more disposable income.
“It can help people get into a better financial position, because they have more disposable income,” says Battaglia. “They may find that it’s better to invest that money in an RRSP.”
If you’re moving, there are strategies to help reduce the penalty or even not pay it at all.
Almost all mortgages allow people to put a certain percentage of money down on a house every year; I was allowed to pay 20 per cent of my balance every 12 months.
In some cases, lenders will allow you to designate the first 20 per cent — it could be less or more depending on your lender — of the proceeds of a sale of a house towards the prepayment in order to pay down the outstanding balance and so reduce the mortgage penalty.
Battaglia has dealt with many lenders who refuse to honor this type of arrangement. They want two checks: one for the prepayment and one to pay off the mortgage.
My own lender refused to let me make one payment; I had to borrow money from my broker, who paid my prepayment three days before closing. I had to pay him back with some of the proceeds of the sale. It was a major hassle. But I did save about $1,500.
Porting a mortgage to a new house is another way to avoid the fee.
Let’s say you have $100,000 left on a mortgage with a 4 per cent rate, but you need $200,000 more for the new house. The bank will give you the additional money at the new rate, which could be 3 per cent. You’d keep the same term or extend it and now you’d pay a blended rate, in this case 3.5 per cent on $300,000.
“There are no penalty costs, because you’re still honouring the original contract,” says Veselinovich.
Most people will have to open their wallet when they break a mortgage.
While I did get my penalty reduced by making a prepayment before closing, I still had to write a cheque for about $8,000. It was painful at the time, but now that I’m in my new house, paying a new mortgage at a much lower rate, I don’t think about the penalty anymore.
Coming soon: higher interest rates
- refinance – or re-do your mortgage – and get today’s rates for another 5 years,
- roll in some higher interest payments – like LOC -Line of Credit or credit cards or,
- buy your first home before rates go up or,
- finally get that summer/ ski vacation cabin.
Call for a free 5-minute mortgage check-up while there is still time. (That may be 2 or 3 weeks from now as the bond market will smell this coming inflation pretty quickly.)
Let’s start with a little tutorial (no, please keep reading, it will be brief) and then we’ll talk about why this week’s economic data changes everything, more or less.
The Bank of Canada sets the benchmark overnight rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other). That in turn affects market interest rates on everything from mortgages through to business loans. At present, the overnight rate is at 1 percent, following three hikes of 25 basis points each last year.
The tutorial is on the ‘output gap’ which is one of the major tools that the Bank of Canada looks at to set monetary policy. Here goes.
The ‘output gap’ refers to the difference between the actual output of the economy and the potential output. Potential output basically refers to the maximum that could be produced if all inputs (like the labour force, technology, capital, factory space and all that) were used to the fullest extent that they can be without triggering inflation. That last little bit is key: when the bank says ‘potential’ they don’t mean full potential, they mean ‘potential without forcing prices higher’. It is a similar concept to what economists mean when they say ‘full employment’. In that case it does not mean everyone working, it means everyone working that can be working without wages being forced higher.
The Bank of Canada monitors the output gap as best they can, first by estimating what potential output is in any period of time, then estimating how close to potential the economy looks to be. A positive output gap means the economy is operating above potential, and that inflation is a risk. A negative gap means there is excess supply (for example, too many unemployed workers) and that inflation is not a risk, or at the extreme, that deflation is possible.
The Bank of Canada adjusts policy to try to get keep things in balance and the output gap closed – sort of a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ thing. Based on their most recent calculations, their latest estimate (which was contained in last week’s Monetary Policy Review) was that the output gap would close by the middle of 2012.
Everybody still with me? Good. Here’s the thing: as well as looking at the output gap itself, the Bank also looks at a bunch of economic indicators to see how close to capacity the Canadian economy is running. Things like industrial production, the unemployment rate, unfilled manufacturing orders – and inflation.
That last one is probably the most important, and it is the one that seems to be running most out of sync with where the Bank of Canada thought it would be. In the Monetary Policy Report, the Bank said that the overall inflation rate (which they target to be 1 to 3 percent) would peak at 3 percent in the second quarter. This week, we got the March inflation report, and we find out that the inflation rate was 3.3 percent as of March – which is decisively in the first quarter. Ouch.
So what does this mean? It means something has to change to keep the Canadian economy from overheating. That something is likely to be Canadian interest rates, and when I say ‘change’ I mean ‘go higher’.
If rates do not go higher, then the output gap is at risk of going into positive territory, which means inflation takes off even more. No way is the Bank of Canada going to let that happen.
There are other things to take into account too – the spiky Canadian dollar is an important one – but it does not take away from the big picture.
Big picture? A rate hike by July, and maybe more to come after that. And yes, watch the loonie soar in the meantime.
Real estate: A ‘secret’ tax shelter
By Jason Heath
TFSAs have been a welcome addition to the tax shelter landscape in Canada, but they leave something to be desired for those with substantial assets and maxed out RRSP and TFSA room.
Film limited partnerships have disappeared, charitable donation tax shelters were flawed from the start and the investment tax credit for flow-through shares may or may not be extended in the next budget.
Real estate is often overlooked in the quest for tax reduction and deferral, let alone income generation and inflation protection. If real estate is all of these things, why doesn’t everyone own a rental property? The answer is simple – money.
It’s not that investors don’t have the money to get into the rental property market, because this can be easily accomplished with leverage and minimal monthly carrying costs. The problem is there is simply no money to be made by financial professionals when it comes to rental real estate. The result is that rental real estate is a secret tax shelter that few people ever consider.
Investment advisors sell stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Insurance agents sell insurance policies. Accountants sell tax preparation services. Real estate agents sell real estate, but they tend to sell real estate from a vendor to a purchaser to be used solely as a principle residence.
So rental real estate ends up being a golden goose, elusive, yet attractive.
According to Harvard professor Niall Ferguson in The Ascent of Money, “The original property game we know today as Monopoly was actually invented back in 1903 to expose the unfairness of a social system where a small minority of landlords [took advantage of] the majority of tenants.
“What the game of Monopoly tells us, contrary to its inventor’s intentions, is that it’s smart to own property.”
First, a lesson in rental real estate taxation. Rental income is taxable and rental expenses, including mortgage or line of credit interest, are tax-deductible. In many cases, if a property is financed, it will run at a loss for tax purposes creating a tax deduction against all other sources of income and therefore, a tax refund. In the meantime, real estate values grow tax-deferred until an eventual sale. Even if a property runs at positive cash flow for tax purposes, depreciation can be claimed to wipe out some or all of the taxable income inclusion.
Rental real estate has been described by some as the equivalent of a super-charged RRSP. What is a traditional RRSP? It’s a tax-deferred savings vehicle; contributions are tax-deductible; it provides a future income stream; and it’s an investment asset. Rental real estate incorporates all of these features, plus there’s no pre-determined maximum tax deduction limit like with RRSPs; withdrawals aren’t forced at age 71 like with RRIFs; contributions can be financed and the interest can be deducted, unlike RRSP loans; and the taxes paid on selling a rental property are at the 50% capital gains tax rate, unlike RRSP withdrawals which are fully taxable.
The Harvard and Yale endowment funds have more than 50% of their assets invested in non-traditional asset classes, like real estate. The Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan, the largest single-profession pension plan in Canada, has 18% of their pension assets invested in real estate. Maybe Harvard, Yale and the OTTP know something the mainstream investment community doesn’t know.
Jason Heath is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) for E.E.S. Financial Services Ltd. in Markham, Ontario.
Lower Canadian Mortgage Rates – should have happened a month ago
Here is some bank-spin b.s. in full display. Bank mortgage rates should have come down 3 weeks or a month ago like the broker rates did. Banks intentionally left their rates higher to keep their profits up. So it is supposed to be a big deal now that the Big 5 banks have a 5 year at 4.09% when we have been at 3.89% for the last month?
Always use a mortgage broker to take care of your interests! And the banks pay us so there are normally no fees to you for our services!
Global instability leads to lower mortgage rates in Canada
Global instability, highlighted by turmoil in Libya and Japan, has caused Canadian banks to drop their mortgage rates.
Just as changes to mortgage rules coming into effect Friday were likely to make borrowing for a new home more difficult, the latest drop in interest rates has helped potential new borrowers in the short term find a more affordable price.
The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), along with the Bank of Montreal, slashed its rates on various fixed rate mortgages. Other lenders are also expected to follow suit.
After heightened confidence led to mortgage rate increases last month, banks are now following the cue of declining bond rates, according to the Globe and Mail.
For the RBC, the country’s largest bank, its residential mortgage special fixed rate was unchanged at 3.2% for one-year closed mortgages, but its four-year special fixed rate for closed mortgages was reduced 0.15% to a rate of 4.19%.
The same rate, 4.19%, now applies to five-year special fixed rate closed mortgages, which are down 0.1%, while 5.1% applies to a seven-year closed special fixed rate, which is down 0.2%.
Prime to be at 4% by 2012
BoC rate to reach two per cent by year end: RBC
By | 11/03/2011 2:00:00 PM | 0 comments
As part of its economic outlook for 2011, RBC projects that the Bank of Canada overnight rate will rise from one per cent to two per cent by year-end.
The gradual pace of rate increases combined with anchored inflation expectations will result in less upward pressure on long-term interest rates, added the Economic Outlook released by RBC Economics.
On the back of solid net exports in the final quarter of 2010, Canada’s economy finished the year on a high note recording stronger than expected gains. The biggest support for the economy came from net exports, which added a full 4.5 percentage points to the quarterly growth rate. Continued consumer spending also played a vital role in driving overall GDP, marking the fastest increase in spending since late 2007.
RBC expects real GDP to increase at 3.2 per cent in 2011, as U.S. demand for Canadian exports increases. Growth in 2012 is forecast to rise by 3.1 per cent.
The report also stated labour market conditions will remain firm in 2011and disposable income is expected to post a 4.1 per cent gain that will provide continued support to consumer spending.
“Consumers’ earlier confidence in taking on increasing amounts of debt was based on a combination of lower interest rates, a strengthening labour market and a 4.6 per cent rise in disposable income,” explained Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC Wright. “An expected slowing in the housing market, rising interest rates and tightening mortgage lending standards all add up to a levelling out in consumer debt relative to income.”
At the provincial level, RBC forecasts Saskatchewan will lead the country in growth this year. Alberta is expected to return to a top three placing, closely trailing growth in Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario and Manitoba will hover close to the national average while both Quebec and British Columbia will fall slightly below. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island are still projected to lag behind at the lower end of the scale for 2011.
‘Window closing’ on ultra-low mortgage rates
Essentially we are in artificially low interest rates and the government is expecting rates to come up to normal levels in the near future. Bond yields are continuing to put pressure on long term mortgage rates and we will continue to see the rates moving upward this year. The government is also trying to make it more difficult for individuals to qualify for insured mortgages. This article, from the Financial Post, speculates rates will increase rates by May.
Enjoy the Read!
Amid the noise of volatile-but-improving economic indicators, mortgage rate hikes are likely to repeat like a chorus in the coming months.
Canadian banks are raising interest rates on mortgages, marking the beginning of a trend as they correlate with rising bond yields and expected monetary tightening.
That’s making a strong case for borrowers to lock into fixed rates before it’s too late, said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets. “The window is closing.”
TD Canada Trust and CIBC both announced Monday hikes to their residential mortgage rates, the first increases since changes to the rules of borrowing were announced by the federal government last month. The other big banks where expected to follow the moves shortly.
Effective Feb. 8, the interest rate on the banks’ benchmark five-year closed fixed rate mortgage will increase 25 basis points to 5.44%. The country’s other major lenders are expected to soon follow suit.
Toronto mortgage broker Paula Roberts said rising borrowing costs will compel more of her clients to abandon ultra-low variable rates in favour of higher, fixed-rate mortgages.
That can be a tough decision for borrowers to accept higher payments, but not one that should strain a mortgagee’s finances, she said.
“If you can’t afford [your payments] … that’s a problem,” Ms. Roberts said. “That’s why the government has changed the rules.”
In two stages over the past year the federal government announced changes to the conditions of mortgage lending — shortening the maximum amortization from 35 years to 30 years and requiring borrowers to qualify for a fixed-rate plan, even if they are opting for a variable rate.
Many who only qualify under the old rules, however, will try to secure mortgages before the shorter maximum amortization periods come into effect next month, Ms. Roberts said.
“There are going to be a lot of people that will enter into their agreements by March 18.”
Much of the momentum in mortgage rates can be attributed to a bond selloff and rising yields across the board. That effect is partly a reflection of building global inflationary pressures as well as a global economy that is proving more robust than expected.
“In my opinion, the bond market will not be the place to be over the next six months, and if that’s the case, you will see mortgage rates continue to rise,” Mr. Tal said.
In addition, anticipation of increases to the Bank of Canada’s benchmark lending rates is building, also contributing to rising yields, which puts pressure on fixed-income mortgages.
If there was any lingering doubt that the Bank will soon raise rates, last week’s jobs report erased them. The report showed Canada added four times more jobs than expected in January.
“[It] creates a fairly powerful story for the Bank of Canada, which is clearly concerned on the domestic front,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at the Bank of Nova Scotia. “I think there’s a material change.”
So do investors. The probability that the central bank will boost its key policy rate by May, as measured by overnight index swaps, jumped to almost 75% after the jobs data.
Source: Financial Post