YYZ & YVR homes: more expensive than Rome, closing in on Paris!
This is some interesting data on the housing market in Vancouver and Toronto from one of the banks we deal with.
Mark Herman; Calgary, Alberta mortgage broker
—
Canadian home prices really are “world class”, at least in the country’s two hottest markets.
A survey shows the price for prime residential property Toronto and Vancouver has surpassed Rome and is closing in on Paris. Vancouver is at nearly $1,400 a square foot and Toronto is a little above $1,200. (Top spot is London at more than $3,600/sq. ft.)
The survey says growing foreign investment as a key reason for the rising prices because international investors consider Canadian real estate as a safe haven.
That’s backed up by high-profile Canadian economist Sal Gautieri. He also points to domestic factors: population growth in Toronto and Vancouver (and Calgary) has outpaced the national average by about 2 to 1 over the past decade; economic prospects remain good in both cities; and low financing continues to be a key factor in pricey markets.
Interest rates expected to go up October 2015 says Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada has updated when they plan to increase rates again … about a year from now – so next October? Expect rates to go up 1% then.
Mark Herman, top Calgary, Alberta mortgage broker
The central bank further pushed back the time frame for when it reckoned the economy would reach full capacity, to the second half of 2016 from the mid-2016 estimate in July. It also delayed by one quarter to the fourth quarter of 2016 the time when it expects total and core inflation to settle at its 2 percent target.
Here is the link: http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0IB1NY20141022
Worried about oil prices and the Calgary housing prices?
Have a look at this TD report about the price of oil and the Canadian economy.
Highlight: TD expects the Bank of Canada to keep rates the same until mid-2015.
Link to the TD report, outlining the various outcomes of the recent fall in the price of oil.
Calgary – 5th BEST place to live in the world! – the Economist
This is why Calgary housing prices are supported by about 20,000 new arrivals a year. The in-migration will continue for a while yet … and that will support housing prices.
Three Canadian cities — Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary — have been named as some of the best places to live in the world, according to a report by The Economist.
In the annual poll ranked Vancouver as 3rd most livable city in the world; followed by Toronto at No. 4, and Calgary tied for fifth place with Adelaide, Australia.
… The Economist ranks the cities on 30 factors across various categories, including stability, health care, culture, environment, education and infrastructure.
the article is here: http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/08/19/melbourne_wins_tops_most_liveable_city_ranking_three_canadian_cities_in_top_10_list.html
Mortgage rate data – short version
Below is the type of data that we watch for you on a daily basis. … short version – rates are holding at 114 year lows.
As expected the Bank of Canada has held the line on its benchmark interest rate for another setting.
Concerns about inflation, which accelerated again in June, appear to be outstripped by Canada’s stagnant job market and the apparent desire to bolster the country’s export sector by lowering the value of the Canadian dollar.
Unrelenting low rates are, of course, doing nothing to moderate demand for housing. The latest CREA figures show a 0.8% increase in sales from May to June with an 11.2% jump from a year ago. The MLS read on prices shows a 5.4% year-over-year increase. The Teranet index shows a 4.5% jump.
Calgary 4th most expensive city in Canada to live in
Vancouver tops the list of most expensive Canadian cities to live in, surpassing Toronto for the second year in a row, according to an annual cost of living survey.
But life is still expensive in Toronto, as well as Montreal and Calgary, which round out the top four costly cities in the country, according to Mercer’s 2014 Cost of Living Survey.
Overall, however, Canadian cities have dropped down the list significantly in this year’s ranking compared with other places worldwide, because of the weakened Canadian dollar and slower pace of price increases compared with New York, the survey’s base city.
Vancouver fell thirty-two places since last year, for a new ranking at 96, while Toronto stood at 101, down thirty-three spots, Montreal fell twenty-eight spots to 123 and Calgary dropped to rank 125.
– See more at: http://www.nanaimodailynews.com/business/life-is-most-expensive-in-vancouver-but-cdian-cities-drop-in-worldwide-ranking-1.1200860#sthash.VLKjU4BU.dpuf
Residential Market Update – Mortgage Rates to stay low for a while.
A great summary of where we are today in relation to the economy and the housing market.
There have been a couple of highlights for the Canadian housing market in the past week:
- the U.S. Federal Reserve announcement that it is committed to low interest rates until 2015 and
- the latest global housing outlook that puts this country in better shape than most.
Anyone looking for a new mortgage or a mortgage renewal will likely be heartened by the American central bank’s interest rate pledge. The commitment to low rates makes it harder, but not impossible, for the Bank of Canada to move on its desire to increase rates.
However, that desire got a boost from Canada’s economic think-tank, the C.D. Howe Institute. It says the central bank needs to change the way it calculates inflation to take into account rising house prices. The institute says the current calculation keeps inflation lower than it really is and puts the Bank of Canada at risk of keeping rates too low for too long.
As for the global housing outlook, it shows Canadian prices continue to rise, albeit more slowly than a year ago. But around the world, countries showing price declines outnumbered gainers by more than two to one.
NO Condo Bubble in Calgary nor Toronto!
These comments below are in addition to the report last week that said that because Toronto has:
-
lots of in-migration,
-
New to Canada migration and
-
no other kinds of homes being built in the inner city
they do need all of these new condos and it is not a bubble. Interesting.
Economists to condo investors: Smile!
Written by Vernon Clement Jones
Condo investors in Toronto have every reason to be keep smiling, with two separate bank reports suggesting their assets are almost certain to retain their value at the same time their cash flow gets buoyed by rental demand.
“As CMHC… mentioned, capital return for investors who bought new condominiums and decided to rent them once the construction was complete, could earn superior returns than on other investment products,” reads Laurentian Banks’ July economic outlook. “Furthermore, condominiums rents are generally 40% more expensive than apartments of same dimensions in the Toronto CMA, the most important spread in the whole country.”
Smiling yet?
There’s more.
RBC is also weighing in on the future of Canada’s most controversial housing market, suggesting there’s no indication condos, despite what most see as a glut of inventory, are in a bubble.
Far from it.
“Based on market activity to date,” say economists for the heftiest of Canada’s big banks, “the total number of new housing units (condos) completed by builders has not exceeded the GTA’s demographic requirements and is unlikely to do so by any significant magnitude in the next few years.”
Phew!
That dual analysis effectively counters concerns that T.O.’s high-rise properties are primed to fall in value as renters find themselves spoiled for choice and investors are forced to slash prices. The naysayers are also worried that even new construction will be subjected to a major price correction and in the short-term, a phenomenon directly tied to mortgage rule changes making it harder to win financing.
That could, in fact, still happen, although not likely on the scale many analysts had predicted earlier this year, says Laurentian in its analysis.
Snapshot of Canadians’ finances
| This is super interesting. Also remember that less than 1% of Canadians work in oil and gas, and less than 20% of Canadians make more than $85,000 a year! It shows how well Alberta is doing. |
| Jason Heath Jun 30, 2012
Who is the average Canadian — financially speaking? According to the Association for Canadian Studies, our median household income is $68,560 per year. Personal incomes are lowest in Prince Edward Island at $21,620 and highest in Alberta at $36,010. We pay $11,000 per year in income tax, donate $260 to charity, contribute $2,790 to our RRSPs and carry a credit card balance of $3,462. Mortgage and household debt comes in at a total of $112,329 Our net worth per capita has continued to rise, most recently clocking in at $193,500 per capita according to Statistics Canada. Real estate gains have continued to drive the increase to our net worth, though many have suggested the Canadian market could be in for a correction — or at least a pause. The Toronto Stock Exchange has risen 59% over the past 10 years, compared with a 3% gain for the MSCI World Index and a 4% loss for the S&P 500 (excluding dividends). Our Canadian dollar has appreciated 47% against the U.S. dollar and 16% against the euro over the past 10 years. This has made global and U.S. stock market returns even worse in Canadian dollar terms. Canada had a double-digit personal savings rate in the ’90s, but over the past two decades, this has dropped dramatically to the current 3.1% — one of the lowest savings rates of all OECD countries. The flipside of this coin is that our current personal debt to income has simultaneously reached an all-time high of 153%. So gains in real estate and stocks have been tempered by a corresponding increase in personal debt. The Economist Intelligence Unit lists Canada’s government debt per person at about US$39,883 or 81.6% of GDP. This compares with the U.S. at $37,953 or 76.3%. Go figure! That said, Greece’s public debt is currently $35,874 or 141.0% and Japan is at $87,601 or 204.9%. Canada’s federal government has been consistently posting budget surpluses of about 1% of GDP since the mid-1990s, a time when many people thought Canada was on the path to a sovereign debt crisis of its own. Quite to the contrary, Canada entered and emerged from the 2008 recession relatively unscathed. And this is the asterisk beside Canada’s 81.6% debt-to-GDP ratio when compared with the 76.3% figure for the U.S. — given our neighbours are currently spending US$1.50 for every US$1 of federal revenue. Call it a “Tale of Two Countries.” Some people suggest the U.S. and Europe could learn something from the Canadian government debt experience of the 1990s. While many people in other Western countries are now suffering as a result of their government’s debt problems, our government is sitting pretty. Our personal debt is the one black spot for the red and white as we celebrate our country’s birthday. Jason Heath is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) and income tax professional for Objective Financial Partners Inc. in Toronto |
Has the US housing market hit bottom?
This is a copy of the blog from Boris – the president of MERIX bank – a broker bank we love and deal with often. It is worth pasting all of it here AND it is good news!
Article written by Boris Bozic on the 17 Jul 2012 in Current Events
I’m referring to the real estate market in the U.S. There have been some signs that real estate market may have reached the point where you can actually see the bottom. Interesting to note that new home construction is up in many regions of the U.S. Drive through parts of Florida and you’ll be surprised by the number of new homes being built. Another sign is the number of pending sales just recently reported. On a year over year basis, pending sales were up 14.5% in the West, 22.1% in the Midwest, 19.8% in the Northeast and 11.9% in the south. Another sign that real estate market is getting better is due to increased foreclosures.
As odd as that made sound, a real recovery of the real estate market in the U.S. will only happen when financial institutions finally deal with the backlog of foreclosures. Recent reports indicate the U.S. financial institutions are taking action against more delinquent home owners. Statistics indicated that foreclosure proceedings increased by 6% in the second quarter as compared to the precious year. That’s the first increase since 2009. How is that possible? Simple, banks chose to do nothing. If the borrower didn’t approach the bank and request a loan modification or approval of a short sale, the banks were free to act at their own pace. I suspect their motivation to deal with these issues had nothing to do with any kind of empathy for the home owner. It was more to do with flooding the market with more distressed properties which ultimately would drive the prices down even further. The shadow inventory is a subject that all stakeholders wanted to set aside and deal with it in a mushroom growing fashion. Clearly something has changed, and the banks now feel that the market can absorb the additional foreclosures. This could have further impact on home prices in the short term but many analysts are predicting the drop could be as little as 1%. Here’s another stat I found to be both encouraging and staggering. At of the end of the 2012 first quarter, approximately 11.4 million homes or 23.7% of all homes with a mortgage in the U.S. were under water, negative equity. On a quarter over quarter comparison it was 12.1 million homes or 25.2%.
There’s no doubt that U.S. real estate market has a long way to go before anyone would suggest that it’s a “normal” market. Until they (the politicians, Federal Reserve, regulators etc.,) deal with the real estate issue there will be no full economic recovery. Put aside the markets and consumer spending because the real estate market is the 800 pound gorilla. The real unemployment rate in the U.S is just over 14%, the 8.2% reported unemployment rate is manipulated data and reported by Obama sycophants, and will not come down until there’s marked improvement in the real estate market. As soon as that has happened, the better it is for us. We love it when Americans are working because they love to spend, and we have stuff we would love to sell them. Recently, given the value of the Canadian dollar, we been purchasing more in the U.S., like their homes. If you’re thinking of buying a second home in the U.S., this might be the bottom.
Until next time,
Cheers.