Canadian Mortgage Economic Data, June 4th, 2025
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is keeping its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, unchanged from April (and March) of 2025.
As noted under “Rationale”, the Bank appears to be in a holding pattern until it gains more information on the direction of US trade policy and its impact on Canada.
Below, is a summary of the Bank’s observations and its outlook.
Summary – the 5-year fixed is the best option for June 2025 and July 2025 so far. ensure you get a rate hold are rates are creeping up.
Mortgage Mark Herman, top Calgary Mortgage Broker for First Time Buyers
Canadian Economic Performance, Housing, Employment and Outlook
- Economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected
- The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand “roughly flat”
- Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected
- Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite “a large drop” in consumer confidence
- Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales; government spending also declined
- The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%
- The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued
Canadian Inflation
- Inflation eased to 1.7% in April, with the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax shaving 0.6 percentage points off the Consumer Price Index
- Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected
- The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up
- Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs
- The Bank will be watching all of these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving
Global Economic Performance
- While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs
- In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP
- US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come
- In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase
- China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade; more recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US
- Since financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements
- Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April Monetary Policy Report
Rationale
With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, the Bank’s Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate steady “as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts.
Looking Ahead: Uncertainty Remains High
The Bank noted that since its April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the Bank said the outcomes of these negotiations “are highly uncertain,” tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high.
As a result, the Bank says it is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve.
Final comments
Today’s announcement ended with the following statement from the Bank’s Governing Council: “We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled.”
Next scheduled BoC rate announcement
The Bank is scheduled to make its fifth policy interest rate decision of 2025 on July 9th.
Study – renewing your mortgage at your bank is NOT the best option
I LOVE THIS ARTICLE! Here is the summary- talk to a high volume, full-time, professional mortgage broker before renewing your mortgage because we can often get you a better overall deal.
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Loyalty doesn’t pay when it comes to mortgage renewals!
A Bank of Canada study found that loyal bank customers don’t get best deal when they renew mortgage. People who switch and first-time buyers do.
A Bank of Canada study found that loyal bank customers don’t get best deal when they renew mortgage. People who switch and first-time buyers do.
Everyone you deal with would like you to believe there are rewards for your loyalty.
They may offer a better price, a bundling discount, or less tangible things like superior customer service. Sometimes your loyalty is rewarded and sometimes it isn’t.
The best way to figure out which is which is to become better informed about your choices. Compare prices and features, read the fine print on contracts and keep an eye on developments in the news. In this respect, the Internet has been a great leveler. The products are all on display in the online shop window. You can poke around, ask questions, figure out where you want to spend your money and negotiate a price.
The biggest investment most of us make is in a home. So if you can shave just a little off the cost of a mortgage, you can save thousands in interest payments.
Here, you’d think that loyalty would work in your favour — the more services you have with a bank, the better the deal. But, that’s not true according to evidence in a Bank of Canada paper called Discounting in Mortgage Markets. The 2011 study by three economists looked at a sample of Canadian insured mortgages between 1999 and 2004 to figure out who got the best rates.
The economists found that people who switch banks get a better deal than existing customers, because new customers offer the banks an opportunity to sell more products. Existing customers assume they will automatically get a better deal because they’re loyal, but don’t. They don’t bother to shop around because they assume they’ll get the best rate so, lacking ammunition, the discount may not be much. Those least likely to shop around are affluent, possibly because they’re happy with the full service they get from a bank and are willing to accept higher rates in exchange.
The study also found that mortgage brokers find the best rates. Mortgage brokers are paid by the lender, not the customer, but aren’t confined to one lender’s products. Their business is very competitive, so the pressure to find the very best rates is high. The study noted that brokers “are a significant factor driving discounts,” reducing the cost of a mortgage on average by 17.5 basis points.
As a group, first-time buyers do well because they are more likely to have shopped around, have tight budgets and so fight for every basis point. They’re a higher risk group for a bank because they have so much debt, but over time the bank can sell them more services. So they get good deals.
“Lenders are more willing to offer discounts to younger borrowers in return for future expected profits,” the study says.
Jim Murphy, president of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, an industry group, isn’t surprised by the finding.
About a quarter of Canadian mortgages are done through a mortgage broker, but the portion of new buyers who use brokers is a much higher 40 per cent, he says. First-time buyers tend to be younger, more comfortable using the Internet and social media for research, and like shopping around, he says. They are also less loyal and happy to try new things — like a mortgage broker — if it gets them what they want.
“We don’t do as well with renewals,” Murphy says. “Your lender sends you something in the mail, you’ve paid off some principal, the new rate looks pretty good, so you say OK.
“But you should shop around. Just because a bank offers you a rate doesn’t mean it’s the best one.”
You remember when your mother said you should do your homework? She was right.