Is Calgary’s boom back? Consumer confidence seen climbing ‘with a vengeance’
CALGARY – From BMWs to Bentleys to a good bottle of wine, Calgary consumers are opening their wallets in what’s being described as more than just a recovering economy – with some even willing to say the word “boom” again.
Retailer Wayne Henuset is in the thick of it, discovering his own barometer to measure what is quickly turning into a healthier marketplace.
The owner of Willow Park Wines and Spirits says consumer confidence has been rising “with a vengeance” since fall.
“We know this because when things are bad, people just buy wine, on sale, and bring it home.
“But when times are good, the restaurants are buying more wine from us, because people are going out more. And that’s what’s happening.”
It’s one of myriad examples that suggest Calgary is reclaiming its economic swagger, as sectors across the board enjoy a surge in consumer and investment confidence, including high-end retail, real estate, construction and, most importantly, oil and gas.
Henuset adds that during the 2008-09 recession, reduced prices and spot sales were what brought customers in.
“Now they’re not really paying attention to that as much, they’re just buying whenever,” Henuset said, adding that the pricier, highend bottles are also getting bought up more.
According to the BMO Blue Book report released this week, Alberta is expected to lead the country in real GDP growth by next year as the province’s economy starts humming again.
Real GDP is expected to expand 3.6 per cent this year before moderating to 3.4 per cent by 2012, according to BMO Capital Markets.
In Calgary, recent reports have suggested record leasing activity in the downtown office market last year, with experts saying job growth isn’t far behind.
Meanwhile, job growth has already started in the construction industry with construction giant Ledcor launching a massive recruitment campaign, with plans to hire up to 9,000 people this year in Alberta and other parts of Western Canada.
In the energy sector, industry activity is way up, says oil and gas analyst Peter Linder, with drilling activity significantly on the rise, record land sales and job prospects improving.
Alberta Energy reported this week it had sold oil and gas leases or licences on 271,000 hectares of land worth $842 million, including a whopping $107 million for a 7,900-hectare licence near Red Deer.
“All of that means more activity in the energy industry, and that means much more jobs,” said Linder.
“In fact, I think we’re on the cusp of another significant labour shortage, another boom.”
Even the lower natural gas prices that have been a hurdle in recent years will start to recover, Linder predicts.
“The second half of this year will be far, far better than the last three years.”
Ben Brunnen, chief economist with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, explains that as oil prices recover, Calgary’s oil and gas sector is enjoying increased activity and investment confidence.
As of March 2011, 59 oilsands projects valued at nearly $100 billion were either planned or already underway in Alberta.
“And when investment is good, incomes increase here. That’s a unique perspective for Calgary because we are the head office of oil and gas,” Brunnen said.
Businesses seem to already be reaping the rewards of more disposable income.
Justin Havre, a realtor with CIR Realty, says Calgary’s real estate market is bouncing back, particularly in the luxury home market with 44 homes sold for over $1 million in Calgary alone last month.
“The luxury market is becoming really active, and it’s usually a good indicator that there’s some confidence in our economy and in Calgary investment.”
Tony Dilawri, who runs several car dealerships including Calgary BMW and the Distinctive Collection, which sells Bentleys and Aston Martins, says the luxury car market has also improved from last year.
“We’re finding consumer confidence is definitely up as people become a little more willing to spend money on their vehicles.”
BMW sales are up 20 per cent from last year, Dilawri said, adding that some 20 new and pre-owned Bentleys and Aston Martins were delivered to customers last month. Dilawri says the Calgary kind of wealth is on its way back, a swagger that’s proud, but not too boastful. Calgary is not like Montreal and Toronto, he said, filled with old money that isn’t always affected by economic shifts.
“We’re young in Alberta, and we work hard for our wealth,” he said.
“So when we get it back, we want to have some fun. We don’t want to boast, but we want to reward ourselves.”
Brunnen agreed Calgary’s economy is bouncing back, but consumers are still cautious.
“The investment is there, and the consumer confidence will come with it.”
While optimism is growing in Calgary, however, the economic mood elsewhere is guarded. Reuters reported last week the global economy is still in flux, with investors wary that the real stresses still lie ahead. European debt uncertainties and the arrest of the head of the International Monetary Fund mixed with Arab revolt and Japan’s recovery from natural disaster are all contributors.
“It is clear that some investors have decided that they need to take some risk off the table, but they do not want to take too much off,” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments.
eferguson@calgaryherald.com
Mark Herman in the press on high-end properties selling quickly
High-flying stock market sends business to brokers Lingering caution at the big banks and wealthy clients increasingly bullish on the stock market are helping brokers claim their biggest share of high-end deals in years – with a Re/Max study helping explain the phenomenon.
By Vernon Clement Jones
Mortgagebrokernews.ca
Lingering caution at the big banks and wealthy clients increasingly bullish on the stock market are helping brokers claim their biggest share of high-end deals in years – with a Re/Max study helping explain the phenomenon.
“In the last week, we’ve just had two of the biggest deals of my career,” Mark Herman, an agent and team leader for Mortgage Alliance Mortgages Are Marvelous Inc. in Calgary, told MortgageBrokerNews.ca. “One was a new purchase for $1.525 million, with 5% down, and the other one was for a $750,000 line of credit on a $1.5 million purchase. High-end mortgage business for brokers in Calgary has picked up like we’ve never seen.”
Calgary brokers may not be alone.
Re/Max examined 12 major centres from coast-to-coast and found that luxury sales surged in two-thirds of them during the first four months of 2011, compared to the same period last year.
While Vancouver led in terms of percentage increases – 118% year over year – Dartmouth, at 27%, Winnipeg, 24%, Hamilton-Burlington, 13%, and Greater Toronto, 9%, also saw spikes.
Herman’s market of Calgary was also on that list, at 51%, although that scorching hot performance fell short of setting a new record, unlike the other top jurisdictions on the list. With the exception of Vancouver, their sales growth can be chalked up to domestic buyers.
Michael Polzler, executive vice president for Re/Max in Ontario-Atlantic Canada, pointed to three key factors for the rise in high-end business: equity gains, stock market recovery, and improved economic performance.
Brokers like Herman are pointing to the some of the same factors to explain why they’re getting more high-net-worth clients stepping across their thresholds.
“These guys weren’t buying as much during the recession, but with prices still below recent highs, high-end buyers are now out bargain shopping,” said the mortgage agent, also an MBA.
“But what they’re doing is they’re looking to keep their money in the stock market and other high-yield investments and want to buy homes with as little money down as possible – it’s all about limiting opportunity costs. Also they’re coming to brokers this time because they’re finding the banks have been slower to ease credit and aren’t giving them the discounted rates they expect.”
Less than five months into 2011, another broker, Sharnjit Gill, has already surpassed last year’s total for high-value deals.
“We’re also seeing more activity there because those clients are more educated about what we as brokers can do for them beyond rate,” he told MortgageBrokerNews.ca.
Still the trend is less obvious at other mortgage brokerages, even in those markets highlighted by the Re/Max report.
While her Ottawa brokerage has seen an uptick in volume, said Kim McKenney, senior VP at Dominion Lending Centres The Mortgage Source.
“The average dollar amount has risen by only a couple of thousands of dollars,” she told MortgageBrokerNews.ca.
Mortgagebrokernews.ca is a division of KMI Media.
Variable rates are still really good.
It’s that time again. When Mark Carney and his cohorts ascend Mount Olympus once more for the latest round of talks to decide the immediate future for Canadian mortgage holders.
The prevailing feeling however is that little will result from this month’s scheming and plotting. Another meeting will pass with rates unchanged and the variable rate mortgage holders can rest easily until July 19th signals the next round of talks. While some speculators – who haven’t been paying enough attention to our blog – earlier in the year cited this meeting as the one to kick off a series of interest rate rises, it now appears those speculators were somewhat premature in their estimations. Recent developments have meant it is now highly unlikely we will see a rate increase tomorrow, Tuesday, May 31, 2011.
Economic growth for the first quarter in the US, Canada’s primary trading partner, came in at a highly disappointing 1.8% with consumer spending slowing. And while Canada’s strong dollar has seen investment increase and manufacturing experience a long overdue rebound, these are still highly uncertain times for the Canadian economy. As expressed by Governor Mark Carney earlier this month, fears persist that rising commodity prices, combined with an inflated currency could impede Canada’s ability to increase demand in the US. The commodity boom is no longer serving Canada in the way it had previously during China’s rapid expansion. These concerns combined with the ever worsening European debt crisis and the impending impact of fiscal austerity in the US driven by irrational desires to cut the budget mean a rate hike tomorrow is highly unlikely.
While we feel that interest rate rises are coming before the end of the year we still feel the variable rate offers the greatest value for money. However we always advise our clients that if they feel ill-suited to the uncertainty of a variable rate, they should opt for a fixed. And the good news is that being adverse to risk has rarely been so well rewarded, with fixed rates plummeting in recent weeks. Fixed rates, as we predicted they would, have fallen repeatedly and there has never been a better time to opt for fixed. If you have any questions about anything you’ve read here or would like to hear how the impending rise in prime may affect you, please feel free to contact us at403-681-4376 for sound, unbiased mortgage advice.
Coming soon: higher interest rates
- refinance – or re-do your mortgage – and get today’s rates for another 5 years,
- roll in some higher interest payments – like LOC -Line of Credit or credit cards or,
- buy your first home before rates go up or,
- finally get that summer/ ski vacation cabin.
Call for a free 5-minute mortgage check-up while there is still time. (That may be 2 or 3 weeks from now as the bond market will smell this coming inflation pretty quickly.)
Let’s start with a little tutorial (no, please keep reading, it will be brief) and then we’ll talk about why this week’s economic data changes everything, more or less.
The Bank of Canada sets the benchmark overnight rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other). That in turn affects market interest rates on everything from mortgages through to business loans. At present, the overnight rate is at 1 percent, following three hikes of 25 basis points each last year.
The tutorial is on the ‘output gap’ which is one of the major tools that the Bank of Canada looks at to set monetary policy. Here goes.
The ‘output gap’ refers to the difference between the actual output of the economy and the potential output. Potential output basically refers to the maximum that could be produced if all inputs (like the labour force, technology, capital, factory space and all that) were used to the fullest extent that they can be without triggering inflation. That last little bit is key: when the bank says ‘potential’ they don’t mean full potential, they mean ‘potential without forcing prices higher’. It is a similar concept to what economists mean when they say ‘full employment’. In that case it does not mean everyone working, it means everyone working that can be working without wages being forced higher.
The Bank of Canada monitors the output gap as best they can, first by estimating what potential output is in any period of time, then estimating how close to potential the economy looks to be. A positive output gap means the economy is operating above potential, and that inflation is a risk. A negative gap means there is excess supply (for example, too many unemployed workers) and that inflation is not a risk, or at the extreme, that deflation is possible.
The Bank of Canada adjusts policy to try to get keep things in balance and the output gap closed – sort of a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ thing. Based on their most recent calculations, their latest estimate (which was contained in last week’s Monetary Policy Review) was that the output gap would close by the middle of 2012.
Everybody still with me? Good. Here’s the thing: as well as looking at the output gap itself, the Bank also looks at a bunch of economic indicators to see how close to capacity the Canadian economy is running. Things like industrial production, the unemployment rate, unfilled manufacturing orders – and inflation.
That last one is probably the most important, and it is the one that seems to be running most out of sync with where the Bank of Canada thought it would be. In the Monetary Policy Report, the Bank said that the overall inflation rate (which they target to be 1 to 3 percent) would peak at 3 percent in the second quarter. This week, we got the March inflation report, and we find out that the inflation rate was 3.3 percent as of March – which is decisively in the first quarter. Ouch.
So what does this mean? It means something has to change to keep the Canadian economy from overheating. That something is likely to be Canadian interest rates, and when I say ‘change’ I mean ‘go higher’.
If rates do not go higher, then the output gap is at risk of going into positive territory, which means inflation takes off even more. No way is the Bank of Canada going to let that happen.
There are other things to take into account too – the spiky Canadian dollar is an important one – but it does not take away from the big picture.
Big picture? A rate hike by July, and maybe more to come after that. And yes, watch the loonie soar in the meantime.
Occupied downtown Calgary office space at 2008 level
This is great news for the housing market as all those workers are moving into Calgary and will need places to live. There are details of the increasing need for housing in my free reports and most of these people will need a Calgary mortgage broker.
Large blocks of space short in supply
CALGARY — Occupied office space in downtown Calgary has surpassed the level reached during the height of the real estate market in the second quarter of 2008.
A report by Colliers International says that occupied space has reached 33.7 million square feet in the first quarter of this year.
The overall vacancy rate declined one percentage point to 10.92 per cent which equated to about 393,000 square feet of positive absorption in the first three months of 2011.
“Much like in the latter half of 2010, oilsands companies continued to grow, with numerous new projects on the horizon creating additional office space requirements,” said the report. “Most of the activity can be attributed to the strong oil prices and resultant higher levels of activity in the sector.”
The recently-completed Eighth Avenue Place office tower absorbed 50,000 square feet last quarter. It is currently 88 per cent leased.
Development of the 49-storey, 1.1 million-square-foot EAP began totally on speculation with no leasing deals in place.
“With oil trading above $100 a barrel, leasing activity in the Calgary downtown office market is expected to remain strong throughout 2011,” said Colliers. “As more companies take on additional projects, the highly active oil sector will continue to recapture most of the jobs lost during the recessionary period.
“As employment increases, vacancy numbers will continue to decline. Good quality space is leasing quickly in the current market, as shown by the strong absorption numbers for the upper classes of office buildings … Large contiguous blocks of vacancy in all classes of buildings have become short in supply.”
Meanwhile, the Calgary Board of Education has officially put the downtown Education Centre building up for sale. The building at 515 Macleod Trail S.E. has been put for sale by public tender with a minimum bid price of $40 million.
The five-storey building is close to 91,000 square feet on 1.08 hectares of land.
“The final bid and sale price will ultimately be determined by prevailing market conditions,” said the CBE.
The board said the Armengol sculptures, commonly known as the Family of Man statues, are not within the scope of the sale. The future of the sculptures will be determined by the City of Calgary, the sculpture’s owners.
The offer for sale by tender will expire May 4.
The CBE said the building will be vacant by June this year as staff moves into the new Education Centre at 1221 8th St. S.W.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
The ‘thrill’ of buying a house
You walk into the open house, take one look and say to yourself: This is it. It’s the house I have to live in. Where do I pay? A bidding war? I’m in.
Over my years of buying houses, I never bought one that did not have that frisson moment, that thrill of finding a place so suited to my wants. Indeed, I have in the past decided that I wanted to buy a house in what seems, in retrospect, to be nanoseconds. (By contrast, I’ve taken weeks to decide on the right pair of shoes.)
It is no way to make an “investment,” to be sure. But, as I’ve previously discussed in this space, buying a house is perhaps the most uninvestment-like of investments.
Just about anyone who’s purchased a property or thought about purchasing knows that it is much about gut-feel, in which the senses can conspire to trump sense.
Now, as the major real estate selling season gets under way, along comes a survey commissioned by BMO Bank of Montreal to give statistical weight to the notion that intuition carries a particularly heavy weight in the house-buying process.
The survey by Leger Marketing found that more than two-thirds of Canadians cited a “good feeling” toward the property as a reason to buy. Meantime, though, good sense is not thrown out of that gorgeous bay window and into those manicured flower beds. More than 90% of house-hunters value affordability and location over resale value.
So, the axiom that there are three important things in real estate – location, location and location – might reasonably be replaced by the Three Ps: Price, place and personality.
Nevertheless, that resale value is not a big concern to these surveyed house-hunters – people between 25 and 45 who plan to buy a home within two years – is a telling sign of the real estate times.
With some dips here and there, Canadian house prices have been rising strongly for more than a decade. Indeed, even the recession created just a downward blip in the chart of ever-growing values, with the average national price rising 8.9% last month from the previous March (but just 4.3% excluding Vancouver).
As a result, most of the house-hunters surveyed might never have been aware of a housing market that was not rising. I suspect many in this 25-to-45 demographic believe house prices basically keep going up forever, that though they downplay resale value in the survey, the expectation for solid gains is, well, a given. (Any significant drop in prices would surely shake that belief.)
In recent times, investors have been asked if they are stocks or bonds. If you’re a stock, you are prepared to take on more investment risk. If you’re a bond, you are not.
Perhaps, though, many people are probably houses when it comes to investing. A home is both partly a stock and a bond – and somehow neither.
It is a bond because over the long term it will likely produce modest returns through the enforced savings required by paying down the mortgage. It is a stock because the gains could be outsized if the investor were to buy and sell at propitious entry and exit points for market-timing gains.
And it is neither because it is an “investment” with many moving parts and frictional costs. You don’t live in a stock or a bond, but when the house leaks, it costs money and cuts into the investment. Meantime, the costs associated with buying and selling a property are becoming more daunting in many jurisdictions, with some observers reckoning that a house is often a mediocre investment at best.
But most young first-time buyers and mover-uppers are not fazed by such commentary. Home ownership is a cornerstone of our culture, with 70% of the population owning properties and many of the other 30% looking to join the majority.
And the real estate industry has become far more adept at marketing and selling than in the days decades ago when I was in the market. Today, houses are often professionally “staged” to produce that frisson moment. Prices are sometimes set artificially low to produce that exciting bidding war and that extra frisson of “winning.”
A house, it is said, is not a home. And a home is not strictly an investment. But does a stock have granite counters? Does a bond have stainless steel appliances?
Financial Post
Real estate: A ‘secret’ tax shelter
By Jason Heath
TFSAs have been a welcome addition to the tax shelter landscape in Canada, but they leave something to be desired for those with substantial assets and maxed out RRSP and TFSA room.
Film limited partnerships have disappeared, charitable donation tax shelters were flawed from the start and the investment tax credit for flow-through shares may or may not be extended in the next budget.
Real estate is often overlooked in the quest for tax reduction and deferral, let alone income generation and inflation protection. If real estate is all of these things, why doesn’t everyone own a rental property? The answer is simple – money.
It’s not that investors don’t have the money to get into the rental property market, because this can be easily accomplished with leverage and minimal monthly carrying costs. The problem is there is simply no money to be made by financial professionals when it comes to rental real estate. The result is that rental real estate is a secret tax shelter that few people ever consider.
Investment advisors sell stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Insurance agents sell insurance policies. Accountants sell tax preparation services. Real estate agents sell real estate, but they tend to sell real estate from a vendor to a purchaser to be used solely as a principle residence.
So rental real estate ends up being a golden goose, elusive, yet attractive.
According to Harvard professor Niall Ferguson in The Ascent of Money, “The original property game we know today as Monopoly was actually invented back in 1903 to expose the unfairness of a social system where a small minority of landlords [took advantage of] the majority of tenants.
“What the game of Monopoly tells us, contrary to its inventor’s intentions, is that it’s smart to own property.”
First, a lesson in rental real estate taxation. Rental income is taxable and rental expenses, including mortgage or line of credit interest, are tax-deductible. In many cases, if a property is financed, it will run at a loss for tax purposes creating a tax deduction against all other sources of income and therefore, a tax refund. In the meantime, real estate values grow tax-deferred until an eventual sale. Even if a property runs at positive cash flow for tax purposes, depreciation can be claimed to wipe out some or all of the taxable income inclusion.
Rental real estate has been described by some as the equivalent of a super-charged RRSP. What is a traditional RRSP? It’s a tax-deferred savings vehicle; contributions are tax-deductible; it provides a future income stream; and it’s an investment asset. Rental real estate incorporates all of these features, plus there’s no pre-determined maximum tax deduction limit like with RRSPs; withdrawals aren’t forced at age 71 like with RRIFs; contributions can be financed and the interest can be deducted, unlike RRSP loans; and the taxes paid on selling a rental property are at the 50% capital gains tax rate, unlike RRSP withdrawals which are fully taxable.
The Harvard and Yale endowment funds have more than 50% of their assets invested in non-traditional asset classes, like real estate. The Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan, the largest single-profession pension plan in Canada, has 18% of their pension assets invested in real estate. Maybe Harvard, Yale and the OTTP know something the mainstream investment community doesn’t know.
Jason Heath is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) for E.E.S. Financial Services Ltd. in Markham, Ontario.
Calgary house prices expected to increase
Calgary house prices expected to increase
Local market classified as balanced
CALGARY — Short-term year-over-year price growth is expected to be in the five to seven per cent range for Calgary, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
In releasing its monthly Metro Resale Index on Wednesday, the board said Calgary’s real estate market is currently classified as being under balanced conditions.
In February, the average residential resale price rose to $406,216, up from $401,743 the previous month and $394,850 in February 2010.
The board also said that sales, on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, were up by 6.1 per cent in Calgary to 23,784 following a 2.2 per cent hike in January to 22,416. But that is still down from 23,820 in February 2010.
“It’s a reasonably balanced market. That’s what we’re seeing,” saids Robin Wiebe, senior economist with the board. “Sales are on the upswing. They rose six per cent in February from January and that builds on a two per cent growth the month before. And that’s starting to eat away at the stock of listings.
“Sales are bouncing back from a bit of a tough spot later in 2010. They’re coming back . . . There seems to be a little bit of momentum building in the Calgary market which is why we are forecasting a decent price outlook.”
The sales to new listings ratio in Calgary increased to 0.558 from 0.547 in January and 0.531 in February 2010.
The board also said that new listings were 46,812 in February on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis compared with 44,748 the previous month and 48,576 a year ago.
“Over the last couple of months, we’ve definitely seen sales pick up,” said Dan Sumner, economist with ATB Financial in Calgary. “I still think all in all sales aren’t really strong. We are seeing kind of a recovery from really low levels.
“In Calgary, it’s been stronger than other areas of the province. The Calgary resale market has been better than most of the rest of Alberta but it’s still nothing to get too excited about.”
Sumner said preliminary data indicates that March “has not been a blockbuster month” for MLS sales in the city.
In its Metro Resale Index, the board classified Saskatoon, Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivieres and Saguenay as having short-term price growth expectations in the seven per cent and higher range.
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Halifax and Newfoundland joined Calgary in the five to seven per cent range followed by Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Kingston, Ottawa, and Saint John in the three to five per cent range.
Toronto, Oshawa, London and Windsor can expect short-term year-over-year price growth of zero to three per cent.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
ALBERTA’S ECONOMY SET FOR STRONG GROWTH IN 2011 WITH BOOST FROM ENERGY SECTOR: RBC ECONOMICS
Comment – this is some of the data that was used in my MARKet Update / Buyers Report. Feel free to download it for free on my site here: http://markherman.ca/Rate2.ubr
ALBERTA’S ECONOMY SET FOR STRONG GROWTH IN 2011 WITH BOOST FROM ENERGY SECTOR: RBC ECONOMICS
TORONTO, Dec. 15 /CNW/ – Alberta’s economy continues to recover from its severe recession with real GDP set to grow 3.4 per cent in 2010 and then galloping to a solid 4.3 per cent in 2011, according to the latest Provincial Outlook report from RBC Economics. In 2011, RBC projects that Alberta’s economic growth will be second only to Saskatchewan, representing the fastest growth in the province since 2006.
Alberta’s strong forecast is owed to improvements in a number of areas, particularly the booming energy sector and increased job creation since spring which helped to bring down the stubbornly high unemployment rate.
“Improvements in the employment market helped reverse the net migration outflow to other provinces that earlier slowed population growth to the lowest rate in 15 years,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “These are the kinds of turnarounds that will spread the recovery more widely throughout Alberta’s economy next year.”
The RBC report notes Alberta’s employment sector is expected to lead the country with a rise of 2.3 per cent in 2011, up significantly from a scant 0.5 per cent in 2010. The anticipated increase represents the creation of 37,000 jobs and will usher in the highest total of new employment opportunities since 2007 which should ultimately contribute to a boost in population growth.
“With interest in developing Alberta’s oil sands growing ever higher, the gush of capital spending on megaprojects is expected to continue next year and beyond. This will pump tremendous activity into the provincial economy and act as a catalyst for both faster job growth and stronger migration from outside the province,” added Wright.
According to the RBC Economics Provincial Outlook, the impact of Alberta’s strengthening demographics will be especially positive for consumer spending in 2011 as retail sales are expected to soar to a rate of 5.6 per cent, higher than any other province. This, along with the 5.1 per cent increase in consumer spending expected this year, will go along way toward reversing the massive 8.4 per cent decline experienced in 2009.
Looking ahead to 2012, the rising tide of energy-related spending and the expanding of non-conventional oil production will continue to exert powerful lifting forces throughout the Alberta economy. RBC forecasts the province will sustain a solid pace of growth with GDP of 3.8 per cent which will keep the province near the top of Canada’s growth rankings.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales, housing stars and consumer price indexes.
Canada’s homeownership affordability improves for the first time in over a year says RBC
TORONTO, Nov. 29 /CNW/ – After four consecutive quarters of rising homeownership costs, housing affordability improved in the third quarter of 2010 thanks primarily to a drop in mortgage rates and some softening in home prices, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released today by RBC Economics Research.
“The improvement in affordability during the third quarter has relieved some of the stress that had been mounting in Canada’s housing market over the past year,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “After appreciating rapidly during the strong rebound in resale activity last year and early this year, national home prices recently came off the burner and retreated modestly as market conditions cooled considerably through the spring and summer.”
The RBC Housing Trends and Affordability report notes that, at the national level, the third quarter improvement in affordability reversed almost two-thirds of the cumulative deterioration that took place over the previous four quarters. For the most part, the RBC Housing Affordability Measures returned to their levels at the end of 2009.
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure captures the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a specified category of home. During the third quarter of 2010, measures at the national level fell between 1.4 and 2.5 percentage points across the housing types tracked by RBC (a decrease represents an improvement in affordability).
The detached bungalow benchmark measure eased by 2.4 of a percentage point to 40.4 per cent, the standard condominium measure declined by 1.4 of a percentage point to 27.8 per cent and the standard two-storey home experienced the largest decrease, falling 2.5 percentage points to 46.3 per cent.
Despite some decline in home prices over last quarter, prices were still 5.8 to 6.8 per cent higher year-over-year at the national level. Conventional fixed mortgage rates came down in the third quarter, with the five-year posted rate (the basis on which the RBC Measures are calculated) falling more than 0.5 percentage points to an average of 5.52 per cent, entirely reversing the rise in the second quarter.
RBC notes that affordability could well improve further in the near term, with additional cuts in the posted five-year fixed rate already in place in the early part of the fourth quarter and previous home price increases still being rolled back in certain markets. However, RBC expects the Bank of Canada will resume its rate hiking campaign by the second quarter of next year, which will eventually have a more sustained upward effect on mortgage rates.
“Higher mortgage rates will be the dominant factor raising homeownership costs beyond the short term, although increasing household income – as the job situation continues to strengthen in Canada – will provide some positive offset,” added Hogue. “We expect housing demand and supply to remain mostly in balance overall, setting the course for very modest home price increases.”
All provinces saw improvements in affordability in the third quarter, particularly in British Columbia where elevated property values amplified the effect of the decline in mortgage rates on monthly mortgage charges. Ontario also experienced some notable drops in homeownership costs, pushing down the RBC Measures below their long-term average in the province for bungalows and condominiums. Alberta and Manitoba are the only two provinces where the RBC Measures stand below their long-term average in all housing categories, indicating little stress in these markets.
RBC’s Housing Affordability Measure for a detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 68.8 per cent (down 5.4 percentage points from the last quarter), Toronto 47.2 per cent (down 3.0 percentage points), Montreal 41.7 per cent (down 1.3 percentage points), Ottawa 38.2 per cent (down 2.9 percentage points), Calgary37.1 per cent (down 2.0 percentage points) and Edmonton 32.7 per cent (down 2.0 percentage points).
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income.
Highlights from across Canada:
- British Columbia: Lower home prices and declining mortgage rates brought the B.C. housing market some welcomed reprieve in the third quarter from the significant deterioration in affordability recorded since the middle of 2009. Amid much cooler resale activity through the spring and summer and greater availability of properties for sale, home prices either fell, particularly for bungalows, or remained stable in the case of condominium apartments. The RBC Housing Affordability Measures for B.C. dropped between 1.8 and 5.0 percentage points, representing the largest declines since the first quarter of 2009; however, all remained significantly above long-term averages. Poor affordability is likely to continue to weigh on housing demand in the province in the period ahead.
- Alberta: Despite recording substantial affordability improvements since early 2008, housing demand in Alberta is still a shadow of its former self from just a few years ago and there are few signs that it is picking up meaningfully. The RBC Measures eased between 0.8 and 1.8 percentage points, more than reversing modest rises in the second quarter. Homeownership is among the most affordable in Canada both in absolute terms and relative to historical averages. RBC notes such a high degree of affordability bodes well for a strengthening housing demand once the provincial job market sustains more substantial gains.