History of Economic Bubbles
This is a most interesting info graphic
https://fortunly.com/infographics/historical-financial-bubbles-infographic/
Economic Bubbles: The History, Causes, and Effects
You don’t need to be an expert to understand what economic bubbles are and how they happen. The simplest definition is the rapid and unrealistic inflation of asset prices without any basis in the intrinsic value of the given asset.
Despite the fact that financial bubbles (also known as speculative bubbles) are not rare, people repeatedly fail to recognize speculative trading as it’s happening. Too often, those involved only identify these risky activities in the autopsy. Once the bubble bursts, it’s already too late.
One of the crucial reasons for this is that bubbles are often driven by strong emotions, blurring people’s ability to make rational decisions. When gung-ho traders who are willing to take huge risks start operating in that environment, you have a recipe for disaster.
Investors’ greed (believing that someone will pay more for something than they paid themselves) is accompanied by strong feelings of euphoria (“wow, this investment will be so profitable, let’s buy!”), but also anxiety. Buyers go into denial when prices start to fall (“this is just a temporary reversal, my investment is long-term”). Then, finally, panic sets in, causing a domino effect: everyone starts to sell, ultimately leading to a crash.
A bubble burst can have a devastating effect on the economy, even on a global scale. The most recent example is the Great Recession after the market crash in 2008. However, depending on the economic sector or industry, bubbles can also have some positive effects.
Just consider the dot-com bubble, which forced the information technology industry to consolidate. Although people lost a lot of capital at the time, that money has since been invested many times over in infrastructure, software, servers, and databases. Pretty much every American house and business is now connected to the internet, which has changed how we live and work for good.
The best way to prevent an asset bubble from happening is strategic, common-sense investing. Unfortunately, humans don’t always act sensibly. Bearing that in mind, chances are economic bubbles will continue to occur in the future.
To help you notice these patterns early, we at Fortunly have created an infographic detailing how some of the biggest financial bubbles in history have formed and then burst. Check it out to make sure you don’t fall victim to the hype of “the next big thing.”
Very coolMark Herman, Best Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker
Updates to CMHC First Time Buyer Incentive Program
In March the federal government unveiled changes to the budget that included an interesting opportunity for prospective first time home buyers through an enticing program that they called a “shared equity mortgage”. This program could see Canada’s housing agency (CMHC) kicking in up to 10% of the purchase price of a home if certain conditions are met, therefore bringing down the mortgage load and monthly payment for first time home buyers.
In June, the federal government released further details for the new CMHC program. Under the fine print for the First Time Home Buyer Incentive Program, which will officially launch in September, the program is limited to first time buyers who earn under $120,000 annually. The CMHC would kick in up to 10% of the purchase price of the home, as long as the borrower comes up with the minimum down payment for an insured mortgage, which is currently 5%.
An additional stipulation is that the total value of the mortgage, plus the kick in from CMHC don’t exceed $480,000. According to government officials, this means the program will really only aid those shopping for properties worth a maximum of about $565,000, regardless of whether or not they have met the other requirements.
The “loan” from CMHC would be interest free, meaning no compounding costs to pay down, like a mortgage does. In exchange for its stake, the government says CMHC would get to participate “in the upside and downside of the change in the property value” – meaning they would be entitled to any corresponding increase in the value of a home when the buyer sells. On the other hand, CMHC would also be responsible for any share of the loss if the property depreciates.
This means on a home costing $500,000, if the buyer contributes $25,000 (5% down payment) and CMHC kicks in the same amount, CMHC would own 5% of the home. If the home were to appreciate to $600,000 when the home owner wants to sell, they would have to pay 5% of the sale price – in this case, $30,000 – not the original $25,000 CMHC contributed to begin with. Therefore, there will always be a bill to pay down the line. With that said, the kick in from CMHC would reduce the mortgage load and monthly payments, therefore making it easier for first time buyers to save over the life of the loan.
This table from CBC News shows the impact of a borrower of CMHC’s program. On the left is the cost if they went it alone. On the right shows how qualifying for CMHC program makes the same house more affordable:
Savings Over Time
While many are in support of the new program because it will help first time buyers and families across Canada, some financial advisers are not so sure. Rajiv Bissessur says “the program will likely help some people, but ultimately it amounts to just another form of debt for over leveraged borrowers.” It is an interest free loan, but a loan that will need to be paid back nonetheless.
Bissessur also said the cap of $480,000 won’t do much to help people who are shopping in more expensive markets, who are ultimately the people who need it the most.
The program must be paid back within 25 years, or whenever the buyer decides to sell. There is no financial penalty for buying CMHC out of its stake at any time, however homeowners will have to pay CMHC the fair share of the value of the home at the time.
We have yet to see if this program will prove to be “worth it” or if it is election promises.Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta mortgage broker
How the US may start to raise interest rates
This bite of an article is as interesting and as funny as US interest rate increase articles can be.
See why it is better to have your mortgage broker follow this stuff for you then to read it yourself!
Mark Herman, Top Calgary Alberta mortgage broker for home purchases and mortgage renewals
Bill Gross, the former Pimco “bond king” … believes the Federal Reserve could – and should – raise interest rates in September and then hold off on another rate hike for at least six months, a strategy he calls “one and done.”
The strategy adheres in principle if not specifics to numerous messages conveyed recently by influential Fed policy makers, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who have said rates will rise “gradually” after the initial rate hike is announced.
“The Fed … seems intent on raising (short-term interest rates) if only to prove that they can begin the journey to ‘normalization,’” Gross wrote in his September Investment Outlook. “They should, but their September meeting language must be so careful, that ‘one and done’ represents an increasing possibility – at least for the next six months.”
Gross, who has been calling for higher interest rates for months, suggested the Fed may have missed its opportunity to raise rates earlier this year when markets were rising steadily and the U.S. economy seemed to be humming along nicely.
In recent weeks, global turmoil has rocked U.S. markets, leading to volatility that pushed all three U.S. stock markets into correction territory last week. A strong bounce-back this week has raised optimism that the downturn was temporary but also led to concerns that markets could be in for a volatile run.
Any mention now by the Fed of returning interest rates to a more normal level of say 2% “cannot be approached without spooking markets further and creating self-inflicted ‘financial instability,’” Gross wrote.
from Fox Business – I know it’s Fox but it’s true: http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/09/03/bill-gross-fed-likely-eyeing-one-and-done-hike-strategy/
New to Canada Mortgage Program and Stats
Below are some interesting numbers of New to Canada residents.
We specialize in New to Canada programs as there are many in’s and out’s with the details.
Because New to Canada people do not have the standard 2 years of Canadian credit history here to buy a home, there are special programs that help them buy as soon as they have a full-time, perminant job.
The Short Version of what is needed:
- a full time permanent job position and either
- 5% down payment from your own savings if you have a foreign credit report OR
- 10% down from own savings if you do not have a foreign credit report
Give us a call to discuss the details of how this program may work for you!
Mortgage Mark Herman, Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker, 403-681-4376
Facts and figures 2013 – Immigration overview: Permanent residents
Canada – Permanent residents by source country
| Source country | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
| People’s Republic of China | 36,620 | 42,584 | 33,518 | 27,642 | 30,037 | 29,622 | 30,391 | 28,503 | 33,024 | 34,126 |
| India | 28,235 | 36,210 | 33,847 | 28,742 | 28,261 | 29,457 | 34,235 | 27,509 | 30,932 | 33,085 |
| Philippines | 14,004 | 18,139 | 18,400 | 19,837 | 24,888 | 28,573 | 38,617 | 36,765 | 34,314 | 29,539 |
| Pakistan | 13,399 | 14,314 | 13,127 | 10,124 | 8,994 | 7,217 | 6,811 | 7,468 | 11,227 | 12,602 |
| Iran | 6,348 | 5,837 | 7,480 | 6,974 | 6,475 | 6,580 | 7,477 | 7,479 | 7,533 | 11,291 |
| United States of America | 6,990 | 8,394 | 9,613 | 9,463 | 10,190 | 8,995 | 8,142 | 7,675 | 7,891 | 8,495 |
| United Kingdom and Colonies | 7,533 | 7,258 | 7,140 | 8,216 | 8,979 | 8,876 | 8,724 | 6,204 | 6,195 | 5,826 |
| France | 4,391 | 4,429 | 4,002 | 4,290 | 4,532 | 5,051 | 4,646 | 4,080 | 6,280 | 5,624 |
| Iraq | 1,796 | 2,226 | 1,788 | 2,406 | 3,543 | 5,450 | 5,941 | 6,196 | 4,041 | 4,918 |
| Republic of Korea | 5,352 | 5,832 | 6,215 | 5,920 | 7,294 | 5,874 | 5,537 | 4,589 | 5,315 | 4,509 |
Interest rate predictions are tough
I found this in a retirment planning post ….
Every year since 2009, experts have predicted that “rates have nowhere to go but up,” only to be confronted with what seems to be perpetually low rates.
Most pundits predict rates will finally start to rise again in mid 2015, but the recent surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada (from 1% to 0.75%) suggests how futile trying to predict the timing of such a change can be.
Central banks’ zero interest rate policies have resulted in “real” (net of inflation) returns of zero or even less-than-zero after income tax, except for outliers like Russia.
In December, Switzerland even began charging savers for the right to deposit funds!
This post from 2013
http://blog.markherman.ca/2013/07/11/how-low-are-interest-rates-really-here-is-the-big-picture/
Now for the big picture…
Short version: rates are the lowest of all time … like a 496 year low. Is that low enough?
“in July 2012, 10-year yields in the US thus reached with 1.39% the lowest level since the beginning of records in the year 1790.
In the Netherlands – which provide the longest available time series for bond prices – interest rates fell to a 496 year low.
In the UK, ‘base rates’ are currently at the lowest level since the founding of the Bank of England in 1694.
In numerous countries (Germany, Switzerland), short term interest rates even fell into negative territory.”
Mark Herman, Mortgage Alliance, Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker, and #1 mortgage brokerage in Canada for 2013 AND 2014!!!
Variable rate mortgage – how payments will change for the new rate
We are getting many calls on this so here is how it works for MOST of the banks.
The Bank of Canada (BofC) reduced their Prime rate by 1/4 % or .25% last week to 0.75% from 1% where it has been for about 3 years.
The banks took a while to decide ifthey were going to lower their rates as well. 3 times before the banks have either not passed on the entire rate reduction to customers or not moved at all and kep the savings to themselves.
Now that most banks have lowered their rate by .15% this is how payments are impacted:
a. If they have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage – ARM mortgage – then the rate will be the new rate starting on the “effective date.”
b. The payment after the next payment will change to reflect this new rate. (So if you pay monthly on the 1st, the Feb 1st payment will be your current payment, but the March 1st Payment will be the new payment, If you pay weekly every Friday, this Friday will be the same payment but the next Friday will be the new payment)
c. Because the rate has gone down, your payment will decrease.
d. Because the interest rate has gone down, the next payment that is still at your existing payment amount will apply a little more to your principal.
e. Customer will receive a letter with their new payment amounts in the snail-mail.
Hope that clears things up a bit.
Call if you have questions.
Mark Herman, Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker.
ATB = collateral mortgage registrations too
ATB – Alberta Treasury Branches – is registering their mortgages are collateral mortgages.
Are you sure you want one of these?
- Have a look at the previous articles showing why the banks want you to have this, and you do not want it: http://blog.markherman.ca/?s=collateral
- And – what if you move out or are transfered out of Alberta? ATB can only lend in Alberta so your mortgage is not PORTABLE to move to any other province – like with most lenders we work with. You will have to pay it out and pay the payout penalty. 🙁
Calgary, Alberta Mortgage Broker, Mark Herman
2014: #1 Mortgage Brokerage in ALL of Canada! AGAIN!
Yeah!
Mortgages are Marvellous just won the #1 mortgage brokerage for all of Canada, based on total value of funded mortgages at Mortgage Alliance, Canada’s largest SuperBrokerage with more than 100 offices and 1,800 agents from coast to coast.We also won this in 2013 so this is 2 years in a row.
Congratulations to all of our team.
We think it is becuase of our process – ensuring your deal will work BEFORE you buy and getting all the docs in and duscussing your deal with the bank BEFORE you buy!
It works!
Mark Herman, Top Calgary Alberta mortgage broker.
My bank REALLY REALLY REALLY wants my mortgage! Really?
Does your bank really, really, really want your mortgage that badly?
Do you know why?
NOT because they make lots of money on mortgages.
NOT because the bank rep needs to fill their mortgage quota this month (this happens too.)
BECAUSE the banks have studies that if they can get you to have 3 or more products with them, your odds of leaving to go to another bank fall by 75%.
This means 2 things:
- If they can get you to have the mortgage in addition to your existing checking and savings accounts and or credit card then you will probably not leave for another bank and their cost of customer acquisition is very high.
- Then they can cross-sell you the products they really, really make money on:
- LOCs – line of credits – and more credit cards both with overdraft protection and insurance for the minimum payments if you are injured or laid-off.
- mortgage insurance – a huge profit for them as they try very hard later not to pay claims in their post-claim underwriting process
- mutual funds
- long distance phone plans
- travel insurance
- all the rest.
And 1 more VERY important thing:
Banks know that 86% of people will stay with their existing bank at mortgage renewal time. AND if you have the magic 3 products will you move your mortgage somewhere else then?
Banks expect you to chisel them down now, and when you renew they renew you at rates that are typically .25% to .75% higher than they should be. And 86% of people just sign the renewal docs and send them back. (More data from studies.)
This does NOT happen with mortgages via mortgage brokers as the banks know they have to renew you at the best possible rates or the very same broker that took the customer to that bank will be the very same broker that moves the customer to a new bank if for a better rate on renewal.
Do you want to play this game with the banks or just skip it all together?
All this advice from the top mortgage broker in Calgary Alberta, Mark Herman.
Wisdom from Kevin O’Leary, interst rates increases and housing demand
Kevin O’Leary – AKA Mr. Wonderful and self-proclaimed star of Dragon’s Den and Shark Tank – was speaking at our real estate conference yesterday. Surprisingly, he also used to be a professor at Ryerson’s School of Business so he does know more about what he is talking about then you would expect he does.
The short version of his talk – which was way better than expected.
The good news is hiding
- Corporate earnings for the last ¼ of 2014 are being reported this week and they are all good or great, coming off of one of their best years ever! Companies have increased sales and have lots of cash; unless you are an oil company.
- Overall the S&P should be up 7% for 2015 – with lots of volatility – so hold on tight.
Housing
- Even if demand reduces due to less people buying because of the drop in oil prices OR from an increase in interest rates, pricing should stay stable. Alberta will still have in-bound migration and those people still need places to live.
- Demand should stay stable as long as any interest rate increases are less than 1.2% from today’s rates. That is not expected to happen for another 2 – 3 years.
- Big banks are buying solid real estate and less bonds now. An example is a billion dollar building in New York selling at a cap rate of about 1%. That means that the return on the investment is expected to about 1% on a billion dollars. This is much lower than almost any bond and shows the reasoning that real estate is a great investment in today’s changing markets.
Interest Rates
- Today the US 30-year bond fell to a record low, surpassing the previous record low of set in July, 2012.
- The US 10-year bond is almost at record lows as well.
- The problems in the market are not real estate but for long term bonds – like the 30-year bond above – lost about 30% of its expected return.
- 6 of the big banks expectations are for interest rates to begin to rise in October by about 1/4% – the same as what the Bank of Canada said 2 months ago. See previous Blog post from October 22 here: http://blog.markherman.ca/2014/10/22/1138/
- The interest rate increase prediction was before oil fell so interest rates may not increase and stay the same for longer than expected above.
BONUS – 3 Keys to Business Success on the Dragon’s Den
He also shared a few studies on the companies in the Dragon’s Den. They all showed all the companies that boomed all had this in common:
- Their business model could be fully explained in 90 seconds or less
- The owners were able to explain why they were the ones to be able to execute the business model better than anyone else and
- They knew the numbers to their business cold – pricing, costs, revenue, economics, IRR, etc.
All this from the top Calgary, Alberta mortgage broker, Mark Herman at Mortgage Alliance.