Why I paid $10,000 to break my mortgage
Below is a great article about why paying the payout penalty can be worth it for you. We always do the math for you to ensure that it is a better deal AND we also include any other costs in that math – like an appraisal and legal costs – lots of other brokers do not. Ensure ALL the costs are included in the math before making the change.
Want to ensure it is worth it – give us a call for a free 5-minute mortgage checkup at 403-681-4376.
Tara Walton/Toronto Star By Bryan Borzykowski |
Last September, my wife and I started scouring the city for a new house. We were living in a cozy bungalow, but with a growing kid and another on the way, we decided it was time to move.
Buying a new house is, of course, expensive, so I wanted to do whatever it took to reduce my costs. Most of the fees couldn’t be avoided, but there was one costly payment I desperately wanted to steer clear from: The mortgage penalty charge.
I had just over 12 months left on my five-year mortgage term, which meant that I either had to break my mortgage or stay with my current lender by transferring my mortgage to my new house. The latter option would have allowed me to avoid the fee. However, my lender couldn’t give me the best interest rate.
The new lender, a bank, was offering a variable rate of 2.25 per cent, a much lower rate than my old lender was willing to offer. I calculated that over the term I’d be better off paying the fee and taking the lower rate.
It was going to cost me $10,000 to break my contract. It felt like an unnecessary cost — I paid my lender so much in interest over the four years, why would I have to cough up so much cash?
I asked my broker to see if the lender would waive the fee, even though I was using a new lender for my next house, but they didn’t. Peter Veselinovich, vice-president of banking and mortgage operations at Investors Group, isn’t surprised. “The charge isn’t negotiable,” he says.
While the penalty may seem like an arbitrary sum, it’s not a cash-grab, he says.
The lender takes mortgage funds from money invested in GICs and other products and then it pays investors interest on those investments.
The idea is to match a five-year mortgage with a five-year GIC, so investors can get paid back at the same time as the mortgage comes due.
If a mortgage is broken, the lender needs to come up with money to fill the gap between the investment coming due and the mortgage ending. Hence the fee. The lender then takes that lump sum and invests it, so it can pay investors back when its GIC comes due.
The penalty is calculated two ways: you either pay 90 days of interest or what’s called an interest-rate differential, which is a penalty based on your old rate and a new rate based on a shorter term.
For example, let’s say you wanted to exit your 5 per cent five-year term with three years left to go. The lender would look at the current three-year term rate, which, say, is 3 per cent, and then charge you interest on the difference, 2 per cent, for 36 months. The sum also depends on how much money you still owe the bank.
However it’s calculated, the payment can be huge.
Darick Battaglia, a mortgage broker and owner of Dominion Lending Centres’ Barrie location, says that while it may seem as though people have to empty their bank account to pay the penalty, ultimately, by paying the lower rate, they’re getting that money back in mortgage savings.
Whether you’re moving houses, or just want to break a mortgage to take advantage of a lower interest rate, people often pay the penalty so they can free up more disposable income.
“It can help people get into a better financial position, because they have more disposable income,” says Battaglia. “They may find that it’s better to invest that money in an RRSP.”
If you’re moving, there are strategies to help reduce the penalty or even not pay it at all.
Almost all mortgages allow people to put a certain percentage of money down on a house every year; I was allowed to pay 20 per cent of my balance every 12 months.
In some cases, lenders will allow you to designate the first 20 per cent — it could be less or more depending on your lender — of the proceeds of a sale of a house towards the prepayment in order to pay down the outstanding balance and so reduce the mortgage penalty.
Battaglia has dealt with many lenders who refuse to honor this type of arrangement. They want two checks: one for the prepayment and one to pay off the mortgage.
My own lender refused to let me make one payment; I had to borrow money from my broker, who paid my prepayment three days before closing. I had to pay him back with some of the proceeds of the sale. It was a major hassle. But I did save about $1,500.
Porting a mortgage to a new house is another way to avoid the fee.
Let’s say you have $100,000 left on a mortgage with a 4 per cent rate, but you need $200,000 more for the new house. The bank will give you the additional money at the new rate, which could be 3 per cent. You’d keep the same term or extend it and now you’d pay a blended rate, in this case 3.5 per cent on $300,000.
“There are no penalty costs, because you’re still honouring the original contract,” says Veselinovich.
Most people will have to open their wallet when they break a mortgage.
While I did get my penalty reduced by making a prepayment before closing, I still had to write a cheque for about $8,000. It was painful at the time, but now that I’m in my new house, paying a new mortgage at a much lower rate, I don’t think about the penalty anymore.
Coming soon: higher interest rates
- refinance – or re-do your mortgage – and get today’s rates for another 5 years,
- roll in some higher interest payments – like LOC -Line of Credit or credit cards or,
- buy your first home before rates go up or,
- finally get that summer/ ski vacation cabin.
Call for a free 5-minute mortgage check-up while there is still time. (That may be 2 or 3 weeks from now as the bond market will smell this coming inflation pretty quickly.)
Let’s start with a little tutorial (no, please keep reading, it will be brief) and then we’ll talk about why this week’s economic data changes everything, more or less.
The Bank of Canada sets the benchmark overnight rate (the rate at which banks lend to each other). That in turn affects market interest rates on everything from mortgages through to business loans. At present, the overnight rate is at 1 percent, following three hikes of 25 basis points each last year.
The tutorial is on the ‘output gap’ which is one of the major tools that the Bank of Canada looks at to set monetary policy. Here goes.
The ‘output gap’ refers to the difference between the actual output of the economy and the potential output. Potential output basically refers to the maximum that could be produced if all inputs (like the labour force, technology, capital, factory space and all that) were used to the fullest extent that they can be without triggering inflation. That last little bit is key: when the bank says ‘potential’ they don’t mean full potential, they mean ‘potential without forcing prices higher’. It is a similar concept to what economists mean when they say ‘full employment’. In that case it does not mean everyone working, it means everyone working that can be working without wages being forced higher.
The Bank of Canada monitors the output gap as best they can, first by estimating what potential output is in any period of time, then estimating how close to potential the economy looks to be. A positive output gap means the economy is operating above potential, and that inflation is a risk. A negative gap means there is excess supply (for example, too many unemployed workers) and that inflation is not a risk, or at the extreme, that deflation is possible.
The Bank of Canada adjusts policy to try to get keep things in balance and the output gap closed – sort of a ‘not too hot, not too cold’ thing. Based on their most recent calculations, their latest estimate (which was contained in last week’s Monetary Policy Review) was that the output gap would close by the middle of 2012.
Everybody still with me? Good. Here’s the thing: as well as looking at the output gap itself, the Bank also looks at a bunch of economic indicators to see how close to capacity the Canadian economy is running. Things like industrial production, the unemployment rate, unfilled manufacturing orders – and inflation.
That last one is probably the most important, and it is the one that seems to be running most out of sync with where the Bank of Canada thought it would be. In the Monetary Policy Report, the Bank said that the overall inflation rate (which they target to be 1 to 3 percent) would peak at 3 percent in the second quarter. This week, we got the March inflation report, and we find out that the inflation rate was 3.3 percent as of March – which is decisively in the first quarter. Ouch.
So what does this mean? It means something has to change to keep the Canadian economy from overheating. That something is likely to be Canadian interest rates, and when I say ‘change’ I mean ‘go higher’.
If rates do not go higher, then the output gap is at risk of going into positive territory, which means inflation takes off even more. No way is the Bank of Canada going to let that happen.
There are other things to take into account too – the spiky Canadian dollar is an important one – but it does not take away from the big picture.
Big picture? A rate hike by July, and maybe more to come after that. And yes, watch the loonie soar in the meantime.
Real estate: A ‘secret’ tax shelter
By Jason Heath
TFSAs have been a welcome addition to the tax shelter landscape in Canada, but they leave something to be desired for those with substantial assets and maxed out RRSP and TFSA room.
Film limited partnerships have disappeared, charitable donation tax shelters were flawed from the start and the investment tax credit for flow-through shares may or may not be extended in the next budget.
Real estate is often overlooked in the quest for tax reduction and deferral, let alone income generation and inflation protection. If real estate is all of these things, why doesn’t everyone own a rental property? The answer is simple – money.
It’s not that investors don’t have the money to get into the rental property market, because this can be easily accomplished with leverage and minimal monthly carrying costs. The problem is there is simply no money to be made by financial professionals when it comes to rental real estate. The result is that rental real estate is a secret tax shelter that few people ever consider.
Investment advisors sell stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Insurance agents sell insurance policies. Accountants sell tax preparation services. Real estate agents sell real estate, but they tend to sell real estate from a vendor to a purchaser to be used solely as a principle residence.
So rental real estate ends up being a golden goose, elusive, yet attractive.
According to Harvard professor Niall Ferguson in The Ascent of Money, “The original property game we know today as Monopoly was actually invented back in 1903 to expose the unfairness of a social system where a small minority of landlords [took advantage of] the majority of tenants.
“What the game of Monopoly tells us, contrary to its inventor’s intentions, is that it’s smart to own property.”
First, a lesson in rental real estate taxation. Rental income is taxable and rental expenses, including mortgage or line of credit interest, are tax-deductible. In many cases, if a property is financed, it will run at a loss for tax purposes creating a tax deduction against all other sources of income and therefore, a tax refund. In the meantime, real estate values grow tax-deferred until an eventual sale. Even if a property runs at positive cash flow for tax purposes, depreciation can be claimed to wipe out some or all of the taxable income inclusion.
Rental real estate has been described by some as the equivalent of a super-charged RRSP. What is a traditional RRSP? It’s a tax-deferred savings vehicle; contributions are tax-deductible; it provides a future income stream; and it’s an investment asset. Rental real estate incorporates all of these features, plus there’s no pre-determined maximum tax deduction limit like with RRSPs; withdrawals aren’t forced at age 71 like with RRIFs; contributions can be financed and the interest can be deducted, unlike RRSP loans; and the taxes paid on selling a rental property are at the 50% capital gains tax rate, unlike RRSP withdrawals which are fully taxable.
The Harvard and Yale endowment funds have more than 50% of their assets invested in non-traditional asset classes, like real estate. The Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan, the largest single-profession pension plan in Canada, has 18% of their pension assets invested in real estate. Maybe Harvard, Yale and the OTTP know something the mainstream investment community doesn’t know.
Jason Heath is a fee-only Certified Financial Planner (CFP) for E.E.S. Financial Services Ltd. in Markham, Ontario.
Canada in middle of growth spurt, to lead G7 in first half of 2011: OECD
Canada is like the average student in the poor class, not the brilliant student in an average class. But, as Charlie Sheen says, “winning!”
By The Associated Press
OTTAWA – A leading international think-tank says Canada will lead its peers in the G7 in economic growth during the first half of this year. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development says the outlook for economic growth has brightened for all G7 countries, with the exception of Japan .
But the improvement has been most marked in Canada and to a lesser extent the United States.
“The outlook for growth today looks significantly better than it looked a few months back,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said in a statement.
“Growth perspectives are higher all across the OECD area, and the recovery is becoming self-sustained, which means there will be less need for fiscal or monetary policy support.”
Canada is now expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, and 3.8 per cent in the current second quarter.
Much of that growth has come from the resources sector in Western Canada and continued strength in the housing market in most parts of the country.
Germany is the next strongest economy, with growth rates of 3.7 and 2.3 per cent in the two quarters.
Overall, the Paris-based organization says the G7 economies excluding Japan are set to grow at an annual rate of about three per cent in the first half of 2011, well above the organization’s previous forecast.
The growth estimates given by the OECD are the middle of a range, meaning the rates could be slightly lower or higher.
The new forecasts exclude Japan because of the uncertainty over the full cost of damage from last month’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.
The Canadian economy began the year with an impressive 0.5 per cent expansion in January that has set the stage for the strongest quarter in a year, according to Statistics Canada.
The performance was in line with market projections, but still was a mild surprise because many economists had worried of a possible payback after December’s equally robust 0.5 per cent gain in gross domestic product.
The strong back-to-back months put the economy on pace to grow by as much as 4.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, analysts have said. That’s two whole points more than the Bank of Canada’s now-dated estimate. At that growth rate, the pace of job creation should be high enough to continue pushing down the national unemployment rate, currently 7.8 per cent.
In the last year, the Canadian economy has created 322,000 jobs and has rebounded nicely from the 2008-2009 recession that battered the country’s manufacturing sector.
In some sectors of the economy, price pressures have been building, raising the prospect of higher interest rates down the road to fight inflationary pressures.
The next scheduled announcement on interest rates from the Bank of Canada is April 12, although the central bank isn’t expected to change its policy rate at that time from the current one per cent. Another announcement is scheduled for May 31, after the federal election.
Most economists believe Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will leave a hike on the sidelines until July http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-middle-growth-spurt-capress-340380811.html?x=0
Experts best at brokering mortgage
Denise Deveau, Postmedia News · Mar. 30, 2011 |
Cheryl Hutton and Aaron Coates always thought getting a mortgage would be a challenge. But within 18 days of visiting a mortgage broker, they were able to close a deal on a new townhouse in Calgary without a hitch.
Now in their early thirties, both have careers in the theatre, something Ms. Hutton says has been a bit of a sticking point with banks. “In our industry we never fit the paperwork guidelines ‘for the banks.’ For some reason, people don’t think we pay our bills.”
Although it was their first home purchase, Ms. Hutton says it was surprising how easy the whole process was once they had someone who could walk them through it. “He sat us down, told us what our options were, showed us that it was possible and explained all the steps we needed to take. If it wasn’t for him, we may not have made the leap.”
Sorting through a mortgage process and negotiating rates can be overwhelming for first-time and seasoned home buyers alike. That’s why people such as Ms. Hutton and Mr. Coates turn to brokers to do the legwork for them.
Yet mortgage brokers will tell you that a good portion of home buyers out there don’t really understand what they do. “Part of the challenge we have in our world is that people aren’t really sure what a mortgage broker is,” says Gary Siegle, regional manager for Invis Inc., a mortgage brokerage firm in Calgary.
Brokers should not be confused with “rovers,” mortgage specialists attached to a specific financial institution who visit customers outside of banking hours, Mr. Siegle explains.
“They only deal with that bank’s product. A broker, however, is an intermediary whose job is to make a match between a lender and a borrower. We represent the individual, not the bank.”
About 30% of mortgages in Canada are done through a broker, according to Perry Quinton, vice-president, marketing, for Investor Education Fund, a Toronto-based non-profit financial information service.
“The reason more people don’t know about them is because the banks are so visible. It’s easy to gravitate to them when you have your savings accounts, credit cards and investments there already,” Ms. Quinton says.
Going for the comfort factor could cost you however, she adds. “A broker has access to different lenders including banks, and can shop rates and features. A half per-cent may not sound like much but that could make a difference of about $20,000 for a $250,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years. Any little bit helps.”
Mr. Siegle confirms that shopping around can deliver significant savings.
“Let’s take today’s average posted rate of 5.44%, and you get a point off that at your bank. So you think you just got a really great deal. But the vast majority of rates we deal with as brokers would be another 30 basis points lower -around 4.14%. And if you look at preferred deals that don’t offer features such as prepayment privileges, it can get as low as 3.89%. That’s another 25 basis points below what’s generally available.”
The reason for that is simple, he says. “We offer wholesale rates, banks offer retail.”
For anyone considering a broker, Ms. Quinton advises people to do a bit of groundwork first if they have the time.
“It helps to educate yourself about options and what you can afford. Look at all your living expenses, including student loans and credit card debt. Chances are you are understating those.”
Another thing to look into is the different types of available mortgages and features, including interest rates, payment frequency, amortization, cash-back programs and the ability to make lump sum payments.
“Knowing these things before you go in can save you a lot of money,” she adds.
Any mortgage broker you choose should always meet the right licensing and education requirements, so be sure to check their registration.
If you’re not completely prepared, however, that shouldn’t be a concern when working with a good mortgage broker, Mr. Siegle says.
“After all, mortgages are pretty much all we do. So even if you come in cold, good brokers will walk you through the process and ask all sorts of questions,” Mr. Siegle notes.
“You just need to be prepared to answer them openly and honestly so they can get you the best deal possible.”
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Experts+best+brokering+mortgage/4525573/story.html
Calgary ranks third on global prosperity score card
Calgary ranks third on global prosperity score card: Toronto Board of Trade
BY KIM GUTTORMSON, CALGARY HERALD
Calgary is back near the top of a score card that ranks prosperity in a number of cities around the world, besting all other Canadian metros on the list.
Strong population growth, a young workforce, disposable income, affordable housing and clean air helped boost the city to the number three spot on the list behind Paris and San Francisco.
That’s up from last year’s fifth place ranking, but below its first place finish in 2009, the first time the Toronto Board of Trade compiled results, using information from the Conference Board of Canada — including commute time, income equality, gross domestic product and productivity — to compare 24 major cities.
However, Calgary did score low in some key areas, including transportation.
“I think it speaks to Calgary’s more dynamic economy, more dynamic than we had in the ‘80s when it took us years to crawl out of the recession,” Todd Hirsch, senior economist at ATB Financial, said of the city’s post-recession recovery. “What you’d really hate is to be extremely high in some (indicators) and at the bottom on others.
“You’d rather be really good on a number of indicators and get an overall ranking quite high, like Calgary got.”
The Toronto board of Trade said “Calgary’s success comes from a combination of solid fundamentals in both (economy and labour attractiveness), not just from a robust economy. With the fastest population growth of all metros, Calgary proved that it was an attractive place for people seeking work.
“Calgary’s housing affordability and clean air provide further evidence of its livability.”
Elsbeth Mehrer, director of research, workforce and strategy for Calgary Economic Development, says the city’s ranking shows it should be a choice destination for both companies and people.
“To be able to put the city in the context of major global cities like Paris and San Francisco, that’s an important frame around our positioning,” she said. “I think that helps to elevate the conversation to a different level.
“If you’re comparing yourselves with communities of this stature, now it’s a very different conversation in terms of the types of target companies you’re trying to attract, the types of investment.”
On the score card Calgary ranked third overall, and third for being attractive to workers (behind Paris and London).
The ability to attract labour is important, said Chamber of Commerce chief economist Ben Brunnen, because “the labour shortage, labour retention issue is starting to emerge again. Positioning Calgary as a destination for young talent is a fundamental first step for long-term prosperity.”
Calgary placed sixth if only the economy was looked at (behind San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Dallas and New York).
The Toronto Board of Trade wrote that Calgary overcame “near-bottom rankings on venture capital investment, market size, and IPOs, with first or second-place results on income growth, unemployment rate, residential building permit growth and GDP growth” to get to that sixth spot.
Calgary’s average office rents also put them in the top half of the rankings, in that they’re cheaper than more than 50 per cent of the list.
In the first three months of 2011, according to CB Richard Ellis, Calgary’s office vacancy fell to 12 per cent from 15 per cent compared to the same period a year before. Regional managing director for Alberta Greg Kwong said in a release that given the amount of office space coming onto the Calgary market, the drop is “amazing. This is a testament to how resilient Calgary’s office market has become.”
However, for all the good news, the city rated an overall 13th place in the transportation category.
That factored in an average commute time of 67 minutes, longer than Los Angeles, Chicago and Berlin, but better than Toronto’s 80 minutes, and a score in the bottom half when public transit ridership was evaluated.
“It points out some of the warts, too,” Hirsch said of the score card. “It’s good to be made aware of this is where we rank in global cities when it comes to commute times. A 60-minute commute time is not normal, this not just being part of a big city.
“This is a problem. Who knows where we would be if we could solve some of those transportation problems.”
Calgary also ranked lower in areas that included productivity and venture capital, which Mehrer said are on-going issues the city’s business community knows need work.
“It reaffirms what we know needs to be a focus,” she said.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
Calgary house prices expected to increase
Calgary house prices expected to increase
Local market classified as balanced
CALGARY — Short-term year-over-year price growth is expected to be in the five to seven per cent range for Calgary, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
In releasing its monthly Metro Resale Index on Wednesday, the board said Calgary’s real estate market is currently classified as being under balanced conditions.
In February, the average residential resale price rose to $406,216, up from $401,743 the previous month and $394,850 in February 2010.
The board also said that sales, on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, were up by 6.1 per cent in Calgary to 23,784 following a 2.2 per cent hike in January to 22,416. But that is still down from 23,820 in February 2010.
“It’s a reasonably balanced market. That’s what we’re seeing,” saids Robin Wiebe, senior economist with the board. “Sales are on the upswing. They rose six per cent in February from January and that builds on a two per cent growth the month before. And that’s starting to eat away at the stock of listings.
“Sales are bouncing back from a bit of a tough spot later in 2010. They’re coming back . . . There seems to be a little bit of momentum building in the Calgary market which is why we are forecasting a decent price outlook.”
The sales to new listings ratio in Calgary increased to 0.558 from 0.547 in January and 0.531 in February 2010.
The board also said that new listings were 46,812 in February on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis compared with 44,748 the previous month and 48,576 a year ago.
“Over the last couple of months, we’ve definitely seen sales pick up,” said Dan Sumner, economist with ATB Financial in Calgary. “I still think all in all sales aren’t really strong. We are seeing kind of a recovery from really low levels.
“In Calgary, it’s been stronger than other areas of the province. The Calgary resale market has been better than most of the rest of Alberta but it’s still nothing to get too excited about.”
Sumner said preliminary data indicates that March “has not been a blockbuster month” for MLS sales in the city.
In its Metro Resale Index, the board classified Saskatoon, Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivieres and Saguenay as having short-term price growth expectations in the seven per cent and higher range.
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Halifax and Newfoundland joined Calgary in the five to seven per cent range followed by Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Kingston, Ottawa, and Saint John in the three to five per cent range.
Toronto, Oshawa, London and Windsor can expect short-term year-over-year price growth of zero to three per cent.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
Lower Canadian Mortgage Rates – should have happened a month ago
Here is some bank-spin b.s. in full display. Bank mortgage rates should have come down 3 weeks or a month ago like the broker rates did. Banks intentionally left their rates higher to keep their profits up. So it is supposed to be a big deal now that the Big 5 banks have a 5 year at 4.09% when we have been at 3.89% for the last month?
Always use a mortgage broker to take care of your interests! And the banks pay us so there are normally no fees to you for our services!
Global instability leads to lower mortgage rates in Canada
Global instability, highlighted by turmoil in Libya and Japan, has caused Canadian banks to drop their mortgage rates.
Just as changes to mortgage rules coming into effect Friday were likely to make borrowing for a new home more difficult, the latest drop in interest rates has helped potential new borrowers in the short term find a more affordable price.
The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), along with the Bank of Montreal, slashed its rates on various fixed rate mortgages. Other lenders are also expected to follow suit.
After heightened confidence led to mortgage rate increases last month, banks are now following the cue of declining bond rates, according to the Globe and Mail.
For the RBC, the country’s largest bank, its residential mortgage special fixed rate was unchanged at 3.2% for one-year closed mortgages, but its four-year special fixed rate for closed mortgages was reduced 0.15% to a rate of 4.19%.
The same rate, 4.19%, now applies to five-year special fixed rate closed mortgages, which are down 0.1%, while 5.1% applies to a seven-year closed special fixed rate, which is down 0.2%.
Prime to be at 4% by 2012
BoC rate to reach two per cent by year end: RBC
By | 11/03/2011 2:00:00 PM | 0 comments
As part of its economic outlook for 2011, RBC projects that the Bank of Canada overnight rate will rise from one per cent to two per cent by year-end.
The gradual pace of rate increases combined with anchored inflation expectations will result in less upward pressure on long-term interest rates, added the Economic Outlook released by RBC Economics.
On the back of solid net exports in the final quarter of 2010, Canada’s economy finished the year on a high note recording stronger than expected gains. The biggest support for the economy came from net exports, which added a full 4.5 percentage points to the quarterly growth rate. Continued consumer spending also played a vital role in driving overall GDP, marking the fastest increase in spending since late 2007.
RBC expects real GDP to increase at 3.2 per cent in 2011, as U.S. demand for Canadian exports increases. Growth in 2012 is forecast to rise by 3.1 per cent.
The report also stated labour market conditions will remain firm in 2011and disposable income is expected to post a 4.1 per cent gain that will provide continued support to consumer spending.
“Consumers’ earlier confidence in taking on increasing amounts of debt was based on a combination of lower interest rates, a strengthening labour market and a 4.6 per cent rise in disposable income,” explained Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC Wright. “An expected slowing in the housing market, rising interest rates and tightening mortgage lending standards all add up to a levelling out in consumer debt relative to income.”
At the provincial level, RBC forecasts Saskatchewan will lead the country in growth this year. Alberta is expected to return to a top three placing, closely trailing growth in Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario and Manitoba will hover close to the national average while both Quebec and British Columbia will fall slightly below. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island are still projected to lag behind at the lower end of the scale for 2011.
ALBERTA HOUSING MARKET MOST AFFORDABLE IN CANADA: RBC ECONOMICS
TORONTO, Feb. 24 /CNW/ – Alberta’s housing market officially became the most affordable in Canada in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released today by RBC.
Thanks to lower mortgage rates and further softening in home prices, RBC’s Affordability Measures for Alberta fell yet again in the fourth quarter, by 1.0 to 2.4 percentage points, extending their long strings of declines since late 2007.
“Alberta saw a notable downswing in demand for housing last spring and early summer, giving buyers the upper hand and pushing prices down,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “Alberta’s reign as the most affordable housing market may be short lived, however. Demand has shown more vigour in recent months, alongside a provincial economy that is gaining more traction, and Alberta’s market has become better balanced. We expect that this will stem price declines this year and erase a potential offset to the negative effect of a projected rise in interest rates on affordability.”
The RBC Housing Affordability Measures for Alberta, which capture the province’s proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home, eased across all housing categories in the fourth quarter. The measure for the benchmark detached bungalow moved down to 30.9 per cent (a drop of 2.4 percentage points from the previous quarter), the standard condominium to 20.3 per cent (down 1.0 percentage points) and the standard two-storey home to 34.4 per cent (down 2.2 percentage points).
The RBC report notes that gradual and steady improvements in Calgary’s housing demand have recently started to bolster market conditions as home resales increased appreciably since June which helped trim down the slack that kept buyers in the driver’s seat.
A return to more balanced market conditions in Calgary, however, did not succeed in reversing the tide in the fourth quarter of 2010 as home prices continued to weaken for the most part in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, this contributed to further material improvement in affordability. The RBC Measures for Calgary again fell the most among Canada’s largest urban markets, declining by 0.9 to 3.1 percentage points.
“Affordability in the Calgary area is now the best in almost six years and this attractive level of affordability will support further increases in demand as the local economy picks up steam in the year ahead,” added Hogue.
Elsewhere in the country, a majority of provinces saw improvements in affordability in the fourth quarter. Only the standard two-storey benchmark became less affordable in Ontario and Quebec, as did the standard condominium apartment in Quebec and the Atlantic region.
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income.