Calgary is 1 of North America’s Fastest Growing Cities

North America’s fastest-growing Cities

Forbes has indicated a bright future for Alberta’s premier city, naming Calgary one of North America’s fastest-growing metropolises. According to Forbes, with Canada’s and the US’ major land mass, the area is expected to develop more than 100 million by the year 2050.

The following article discusses North America’s growing cities, and highlights that easy-to-manage cities that are less crowded and more affordable can expect to be driven in large part by continued migration.

Article Source (Financial Post – Calgary, Alberta) – The U.S. and Canada’s emerging cities are not experiencing the kind of super-charged growth one sees in urban areas of the developing world, notably China and India. But unlike Europe, this huge land mass’ population is slated to expand by well over 100 million people by 2050, driven in large part by continued immigration.In the course of the next 40 years, the biggest gainers won’t be behemoths like New York, Chicago, Toronto and Los Angeles, but less populous, easier-to-manage cities that are both affordable and economically vibrant.

Americans may not be headed to small towns or back to the farms, but they are migrating to smaller cities. Over the past decade, the biggest migration of Americans has been to cities with between 100,000 and 1 million residents. In contrast, notes demographer Wendell Cox, regions with more than 10 million residents suffered a 10% rate of net outmigration, and those between 5 million and 10 million lost a net 2.4%.

In North America it’s all about expanding options. A half-century ago, the bright and ambitious had relatively few choices: Toronto and Montreal for Canadians or New York, Chicago or Los Angeles for Americans. In the 1990s a series of other, fast-growing cities — San Jose, Calif.; Miami; San Diego; Houston; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; and Phoenix — emerged with the capacity to accommodate national and even global businesses.

Now several relatively small-scale urban regions are reaching the big leagues. These include at least two cities in Texas: Austin and San Antonio. Economic vibrancy and growing populations drive these cities, which ranked first and second, respectively, among large cities on Forbes’ “Best Places For Jobs” list.

Austin and San Antonio are increasingly attractive to both companies and skilled workers seeking opportunity in a lower-cost, high-growth environment. Much the same can be said about the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina, and Salt Lake City, two other U.S. cities that have been growing rapidly and enjoy excellent prospects.

One key advantage for these areas is housing prices. Even after the real estate bust, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, barely one-third of median-income households in Los Angeles can afford to own a median-priced home; in New York only one-fourth can. In the four American cities on our list, between two-thirds and four-fifths of the median-income households can afford the American Dream.

Advocates of dense megacities often point out that many poorer places, including old Rust Belt cities, enjoy high levels of affordability, while more prosperous regions, such as New York, do not. But lack of affordability itself is a problem; areas with the lowest affordability, including New York, also have suffered from high rates of domestic outmigration. The true success formula for a dynamic region mixes affordability with a growing economy.

Our future cities also are often easier for workers and entrepreneurs alike. Despite the presence of the nation’s best-developed mass transit systems, the longest commutes can be found in the New York area; the worst are for people living in the boroughs of Queens and Staten Island. As a general rule, commuting times tend to be longer than average in some other biggest cities, including Chicago and Washington.

In contrast, the average commutes in places like Raleigh or San Antonio are as little as 22 minutes on average — roughly one-third of the biggest-city commutes. Figure over a year, and moving to these smaller cities can add 120 hours or more a year for the average commuter to do productive work or spend time with the family.

Similar dynamics — convenience, less congestion, rapid job growth and affordability — also are at work in Canada, where two cities, Ottawa (which stretches from Ontario into Quebec) and Calgary, stand out with the best prospects. Many Canadians, particularly from Vancouver, would dispute this assertion. But Vancouver, the beloved poster child of urban planners, also suffers extraordinarily high housing prices–by some measurements the highest in the English-speaking world. This can be traced in part to the presence of buyers from other parts of Canada and abroad, particularly from East Asia, but also to land-use controls that keep suburban properties off the market.

Calgary, located on the Canadian plains, not much more than an hour from the Rockies, retains plenty of room to grow, and its housing price-to-income ratio is roughly half that of Vancouver’s. Calgary is also the center of the country’s powerful energy industry, which seems likely to expand during the next few decades, and its future is largely assured by soaring demand from China and other developing countries.

The other Canadian candidate, the capital city of Ottawa and its surrounding region, has developed a strong high-tech sector to go along with steady government employment. Remy Tremblay, a professor at the University of Quebec at Montreal, notes that Ottawa “is changing very rapidly” from a mere administrative center to a high-tech hotshot. Yet for all its growth, it remains remarkably affordable in comparison with rival Toronto, not to mention Vancouver.

In developing this list we have focused on many criteria — affordability, ease of transport and doing business–that are often ignored on present and future “best places” lists. Yet ultimately it is these often mundane things, not grandiose projects or hyped revivals of small downtown districts, that drive talented people and companies to emerging places.

Landlords Dodge New CMHC Rule

Landlords Dodge New CMHC Rule

The recent changes to CMHC rules on qualifying for investment mortgage are having an effect that is causing havoc on an investor’s debt-service ratio, making it difficult for investors to qualify without a more-than stable personal income.

The following article discusses how recent investors are experiencing difficulty when qualifying for mortgages, and explores the best ways to avoid CMHC, highlighting that investors should deal with banks that “go outside of CMHC”.

We DO have lenders that still do the offset under certain circumstances. Call to find out how and when.

— Mark Herman

Article Source (Calgary, Alberta – Financial Post) – These are particularly confusing times to be a real estate investor due, for the most part, to a policy change made by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) in April.

The major issue concerns mortgages on CMHC-insured properties with four complete units or less, which went from being calculated using an 80% offset model to a 50% add-back one. As reported in this paper, the offset model meant that up to 80% of the expected rental income is used to offset the cost of the mortgage. With the add-back model, half of the expected gross rental income will be added to an investor’s income, but the entire mortgage is added to expenses.

In other words, it wreaks havoc on an investor’s debt-service ratio, as was the case with full-time Toronto investor and consultant Cindy Wennerstrom, who is currently shopping for her eighth property but is “stuck, mortgage-wise,” she says.

“When banks take off 50% of the rent and apply that to your expenses, there is usually a deficit. That is subtracted from your actual income,” she says.

And with Ms. Wennerstrom’s other properties each producing a cash flow of $800 to $1,100 per month, there still isn’t enough to bring her to the desired debt-service ratio of 40%.

“That means 40% of your gross monthly income has to service your monthly debts,” says Barrie, Ont., broker Adam Bazuk. “That makes it very difficult to qualify investors unless they also have an enormous personal income.”

If that wasn’t difficult enough, the 50% add-back policy is not rubber-stamped across all lending institutions, with some allowing investors to use more than 50%, and others maintaining different versions of the offset program.

“It’s gone from a nice simple A or B plan, to an A, B and C plan, with all different ways to get there,” says Dustan Woodhouse, a B.C. mortgage broker with Invis.

Confusing, perhaps. But is it a bad thing?

Consider the 80% offset, for instance. “Everybody thought rental offset was gone,” says Mr. Woodhouse. “All they could see was that, based on a $1,000 monthly rental income, an 80% offset would qualify you for a $190,000 mortgage, while a 50% add-back would qualify you for $45,000, so it’s messed up the market from that perspective.”

But he says that for “organized property investors,” who have been reporting rental income on their T1 forms for the past two years, there are still good, if not better, options out there.

“Under the old rules, I would only be allowed to subtract 80%,” Mr. Woodhouse says.

While not a true 100% offset, it is the easiest way to explain the program, says Chris Hoeppner, a regional vice-president at Street Capital.

“If a client can provide the statement of real estate rentals from the T1 General, we just go with the net gain or net loss that property produces. As long as a person claims enough rental income to cover all the expenses, it basically becomes a wash, taking that property out of the debt servicing.”

But for those not so organized, who have not been reporting rental income on their T1 forms, there are still options.

As well, private mortgage insurers Genworth allows for rental offset.

Mr. Bazuk suggests avoiding CMHC by having a 20% or more down payment, and dealing with banks that “go outside of CMHC.” He also says Scotiabank, National Bank, Royal Bank of Canada and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce still offer a 70% offset arrangement, or are rental-property friendly.

Ms. Wennerstrom, despite being without a mortgage at the moment, is still confident.

“The option is still there, but you just have to buy the right properties,” she says, which means ones with “exceptionally positive cash flow.” To her, that’s more than $700 a month after expenses, plus a 10% reserve for maintenance and a 5.4% vacancy slush fund.

“After that, it’s just what sort of hoops to jump through to get the mortgage,” she says. “They will continue to change the rules and we will continue to find ways around them.”

TD mortgages get harder to get out of

Comment:

TD mortgages just became less appetizing as they are now very difficult to get out of. We do not use them much and now even less.

TD bank overhauls mortgage program

| Wednesday, 13 October 2010
TD bank is redesigning its mortgage program to make it easier for homeowners to tap into their equity and harder for them to switch to another lender when their mortgage renewal comes up.
The main difference of the overhaul is a switch to collateral-charge mortgages, which are similar to lines of credit. The bank is encouraging employees to approve customers at 125 per cent of a home’s actual value with certain conditions, so the homeowner can easily borrow more money if the property value increases.
Unlike traditional mortgages, collateral mortgages are difficult to transfer from one lender to another because they must be paid in full to be cancelled.

Alberta tops North America in employment growth!

Alberta tops North America in employment growth, study finds

Saskatchewan now third says new study

Western Canadian provinces recorded the best performing labour markets in Canada between 2005 and 2009, led by Alberta and Saskatchewan, according to a new study released today by the Fraser Institute.

The report said Alberta topped all provinces and American states, in the ranking reported in Measuring Labour Markets in Canada and the United States: 2010 Edition. The province recorded the highest level of employment growth over the five-year span that was measured, along with high levels of employment growth in the private sector and low durations of unemployment.

Saskatchewan recorded the second-best performing labour market in Canada and third overall in North America, an improvement from its eighth place ranking in last year’s report. British Columbia is ranked third in Canada, sixth in North America, with Manitoba ranking fourth in Canada and eighth overall. Both provinces moved up in the 2010 report from ninth and 21st in North America respectively.

“There’s a clear delineation in the labour market performance of the western provinces compared to Eastern Canada. Over the five years studied, western Canadian provinces are among the best performers in key areas of employment growth, private sector job creation, unemployment rate, low durations of unemployment, and high labour productivity,” said Niels Veldhuis, Fraser Institute vice president of Canadian policy research and co-author of the study, in a news release.

New Brunswick had the highest ranking of the remaining provinces, 27th overall, followed by Ontario (31st), Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island (tied at 39th), Quebec at 43rd, with Newfoundland and Labrador the lowest ranked province at 49th.Alaska was the top ranked American state, second overall behind only Alberta. Other states ranked in the top 13 (which includes five jurisdictions tied for ninth) are: Wyoming and Utah (tied at fourth overall), Texas (sixth), and Washington, South Dakota, North Dakota, Colorado, and Arizona all tied for ninth place overall.

mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com



3 versions of the home buying future

Comment: CMHC has been dead on for the last 6 years. They call for a soft landing. I believe it.

CCPA says bubble to burst, CD Howe dismisses, CMHC predicts soft landing

Three significant housing reports published yesterday paint very different pictures of the future of Canada’s housing market.

CD Howe Institute says that in spite of recent dips in Canadian house prices, we will not experience a US-style housing crash because of our stricter government policies and tighter underwriting standards.

However, the report published by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, has a different view on what will ultimately cause the bubble to burst.  David Macdonald, the economist behind the report entitled “Canada’s Housing Bubble: An Accident Waiting To Happen”, says that affordability and low interest rates are the issue.

With average house prices at 4.7 to 11.3 times Canadians’ annual income — much higher than historical comfort levels of between three and four times income, home owners may not be able to cope once interest rates goes back to their historic norms.

And finally, CMHC published the Canada edition of their housing market outlook in which the association forecasts a softer fall market with prices raising slightly in 2011.

CMHC also predicts that mortgage rates will gradually increase in the second half of 2010 and 2011.

Calgary tops the list in places to buy in Canada!

Where to buy: Top 10 cities

Jesse Kinos-Goodin, Financial Post · Sunday, Aug. 8, 2010

When investing in real estate, sometimes it’s necessary to look beyond your own backyard. The Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), a national organization of investors, has compiled what it says are the top 10 Canadian cities in which to invest. Few are major cities and some are surprising. Don Campbell, president of REIN, as well as one of the researchers on the study, says the results are based on factors such as planned transportation improvements, or if the area’s average income, population growth and job growth are increasing faster than the provincial average.

Oddly enough, nothing east of Ontario shows up on the list, and while Mr. Campbell says cities like Halifax, Saint John and Moncton “still provide decent returns,” the top cities are ones that will outperform the national average between 2010 and 2015.

1. Calgary

Calgary is “poised to outperform the average by a wide margin,” says Mr. Campbell, making it the top-ranked city.

After two years of declining average resale housing prices, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has predicted they will increase year-over-year in 2010.

The REIN report credits the downturn to a much-needed correction, and that it was “economically impossible for the [Calgary] market to continue at the pace at which it was heading.” But now that it is coming out of the recession, along with economies elsewhere, Calgary’s strengths in producing food, fuel and fertilizer will boost its growth.

“Calgary is in a unique economic and geographic position to take advantage of the direct and indirect jobs this increase in demand will create,” says Mr. Campbell, who adds that with strong in-migration and renewed affordability, the city provides a good buying window for long-term investors.

2. Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, Ont.

REIN refers to Canada’s Technology Triangle as the “economic Alberta of Ontario.” That means KWC is not only seen as the economic engine of the new Ontario economy, but also that it “will outperform all other major regions in eastern Canada,” Mr. Campbell says. For indicators, he points to job growth, student growth and a new light rapid-transit system.

3. Edmonton

Edmonton sits near the top of the report’s list because of its future potential. Calling it a “perennial overachieving market,” REIN says the city is a “growing market, [with] an increasing population, and a forward-looking leadership.”

It will also be the main benefactor of energy development in Western Canada, says Mr. Campbell, resulting in a “very affordable, strong rental market with strong in-migration from across Canada.” Major infrastructure improvements, such as the ring road and LRT expansion, will be key.

4. Surrey, B.C.

British Columbia’s second-largest city is growing so fast it could become even bigger than Vancouver.

“Just a decade ago, it was known as the punch line to many a joke,” Mr. Campbell says. But with two border crossings to the United States, links to five major highways, deep sea docks and four railways, Surrey is a prime location to do business, he says.

Although there may be a strong rental market, it’s a city that requires a closer examination, taking “neighbourhoods and even the street’s characteristics into consideration when deciding where to purchase,” REIN warns.

5. Maple Ridge & Pitt Meadows, B.C.

The Translink and Gateway Project infrastructure improvements have made these B.C. towns the “most accessible regions in [Vancouver’s] Lower Mainland,” the report says. They’ve come a long way, Mr. Campbell says. The unofficial motto of Maple Ridge used to be “You can’t get there from here.” As a result of poor infrastructure in the past, property values have been historically low in this area. But with the improvements, it’s predicted an additional 400 business will move into the area, REIN says, improving the demand for both residential and commercial property.

6. Hamilton, Ont.

“The perception no longer matches the reality of Hamilton,” Mr. Campbell says. “The city’s leadership, as well as local business owners, have transformed what was once a rough-and-tumble steel town to a city with economic vitality, diversification and population growth.” REIN applauds Hamilton’s leadership as being innovative in revitalizing the city, adding Hamilton

“has beaten its overall building permit value for the second year in a row.”

7. St. Albert, Alta.

“Long thought of as a satellite of Edmonton, St. Albert is poised to be the biggest benefactor of the new Edmonton Ring Road,” says Mr. Campbell, who adds that as the transportation access improvement is completed, the city will begin to experience “a flood of not only new residents, but also the relocation of companies and jobs into town.” Other attributes of the city include consistently low vacancy rates, high rents and strong property value increases. It also helps that the city has “turned itself into a major retail centre for the northern region while adding to its industrial and commercial job base,” REIN says.

8. Barrie & Orillia, Ont.

These two cities have been shedding the perception of being just cottage country and have become a “hot bed for growth,” Mr. Campbell says. University and college expansion campuses have brought new life to the area, and the addition of Go Train access has made them viable commuter towns for the Greater Toronto Area, REIN says. For investors, this all adds up to healthy property appreciation, a respectable vacancy rate of 4.7% and the youngest residents on average in a given Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).

9. Red Deer, Alta.

In the centre of the Edmonton-Calgary corridor, Red Deer is not close to either. But REIN suggests reviewing city plans, as there will be a lot of hidden opportunities. “The whole central Alberta region has witnessed very strong population and job growth, as well as a real estate market that has continually outperformed most other regions of the country,” Mr. Campbell says. He adds that with a continually expanding industrial and commercial job base, Red Deer is in a good position to “take advantage of the inevitable growth in demand for food, fuel and fertilizer.”

10. Winnipeg

Winnipeg is often left off the real estate investment radar, but Mr. Campbell says it’s a good city for “consistent economic performance — not too high during booms and not too low during downturns.” But people should stick to buying top-quality properties. REIN also notes that housing prices, after dipping last year, are back to double-digit increases, which could “lead to an influx of inventory on the market.” But with one of the lowest vacancy rates in the country, at 1.2%, there is room for movement. Another positive factor for the city is international immigration is expected to increase under the provincial nominee program being undertaken by the government.
Read more: http://www.financialpost.com/news/Where+cities/3369599/story.html#ixzz0w4mDdnyK

Canadian Prime rate to go up only a bit.

As expected the economy is not as hot as every one thought. That means that Prime – as below – is now predicted to go up to .5% and then hold there or up to 1% for the rest of the year.

This means that the Variable rates are now very attractive because we know where Prime is headed – as in holding constant. A variable at Prime -.6 today is 2.5-.6= 1.9%. The 5 year fixed are more like 4.30%

Weak Canadian GDP puts BoC on the spot

Eric Lam, Financial Post · Friday, Jul. 2, 2010

With Canada’s economy stumbling in April, adding fuel to speculation the country’s roaring recovery that began in September 2009 was coming to an abrupt end, economists warned Canada’s central bank will have to tread carefully on its plan to raise interest rates for the rest of the year.

Derek Holt and Gorica Djeric, economists with Scotia Capital, said the Bank of Canada “was not likely to be swayed” by Wednesday’s economic data. The pair maintain a forecasted 1.25% benchmark rate by the end of the year.

“There should be enough strength in the underlying economic momentum to dismiss the drag on GDP in April as something that does not portend the start of a new trend,” the pair say in a note.

In April, Canada’s gross domestic product neither expanded nor contracted, compared with 0.6% growth in March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had been forecasting 0.2% growth in GDP for April.

This is the first time in eight months Canada’s economy did not expand.

In its report, Statistics Canada blames the stagnant April on a “large decline” in retail trade of 1.7%, after a 1.9% gain in March. Declines in manufacturing and utilities also contributed to the underperformance while advances in mining, wholesale trade, the public sector and construction helped to offset the decreases.

Krishen Rangasamy, economist with CIBC World Markets, said it was too soon to jump to conclusions.

“It’s too early to conclude from this GDP report that the recovery is already waning,” he said in a note on Wednesday. “The excellent handoff from March means that we’re starting the second quarter from a higher base, which sets Canada up for a decent quarter despite a slow start.”

Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said that while the 3% growth now expected is respectable, it is a bit of a letdown compared with the 5% to 6% growth figures seen earlier.

“It’s kind of like driving on the highway at 100 kilometres an hour, then getting off and going 50,” he said in an interview. “But 3% growth is still all right and where we see it for this year.”

The second half of the year will likely move quite sluggishly, however, as a lot of spending in housing, renovation and other big-ticket items was “pulled forward” due to the HST, introduced in July in Ontario and British Columbia. Mr. Gregory expects growth of about 2% on average in the fall and winter months.

Canada’s economy also faces headwinds from the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, an even worse slowdown in the United States, and possible fallout in China, he warned.

Warren Jestin, chief economist with Scotia Economics, said in a note on Wednesday that Canada’s position as a resource leader should help keep it afloat in the face of other developed countries, although “this won’t be a hard race to win.”

The situation in Europe is troubling for Mr. Gregory, but he suspects the combination of weakening housing, high unemployment and zero credit growth will hurt the United States.

“That buzz you hear about a possible double-dip recession is legitimate and will remain a worry for markets the rest of the summer and into the fall,” he said. “It’s why we think the Bank of Canada will be on hold for a while after July.”

Mr. Gregory figures the central bank will raise rates 25 basis points at its next meeting in July, then go on hold to see how things play out in Canada the rest of the year. It is likely the BoC will push rates to 1% by the end of 2010 and add another 1 percentage point to 1.5 percentage points in 2011.

“An environment of 3% growth is still something that requires higher interest rates,” he said. “Rapid buildup in household debt is a long-term risk.”

Residential Mortgage Rates Lowered

We never talk about rates as not everyone can qualify for best rates and not all rates are for a mortgage you would want.
That said, below is a note on what the bank rates are. Our rates right now are:
  • 4.49% to 4.19% to 4.09% – depending on how long your rate hold is for  a  5 year fixed
  • 1.90% = Prime – .6% = 2.5%-,65=1.90% for a variable.
As you can see our regular rates are lower than the bank offers. AND our services are free for you as the banks pay us AND you work with the top team of Katie – an ex-bank underwritter, and me 1 of 3 MBA’s doing mortgages in Canada. Why go anywhere else?

Residential Mortgage Rates Lowered

TORONTO, June 24 /JAC/ – Residential mortgage rate changes as and when announced by major lenders.

TORONTO, June 24 /CNW/ – RBC Royal Bank announced today that it is decreasing its residential mortgage rates effective June 25, 2010.

The changes are as follows:

Fixed Rate Mortgages

  • Six-month convertible 4.85 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • One-year closed 3.60 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Two-year closed 3.95 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Three-year closed 4.50 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Four-year closed 5.54 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Five-year closed 5.89 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Seven-year closed 6.85 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Ten-year closed 7.00 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)

Special Fixed Rate Offers*

  • Four-year closed 4.39 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)
  • Five-year closed 4.49 per cent (decreased by 0.10 per cent)

* The rates indicated are special discounted rates and are not the posted rates of Royal Bank of Canada. To calculate a rate discount compare the Special Offer rate against the posted rate for the applicable term.

Special Offers may be changed, withdrawn or extended at any time, without notice. Not available in combination with any other rate discounts, offers or promotions.

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For further information: Media contact: Gillian McArdle, (416) 974-5506

TORONTO, June 24 /CNW/ – TD Canada Trust has changed its mortgage rates, effective June 25, 2010.

The changes are as follows:

Fixed Rates To/Change:

  • 6-month convertible 4.75% – 0.10%
  • 1-year open 6.70% N/C
  • 1-year closed 3.80% – 0.10%
  • 2-year closed 4.30% – 0.10%
  • 3-year closed 4.85% – 0.10%
  • 4-year closed 5.54% – 0.10%
  • 5-year closed 5.89% – 0.10%
  • 6-year closed 6.20% – 0.10%
  • 7-year closed 6.59% N/C
  • 10-year closed 6.90% N/C

Special Fixed Rate Offers To/Change:

  • 1-year closed 2.80% – 0.10%
  • 4-year closed 4.39% – 0.10%
  • 5-year closed 4.49% – 0.10%
  • 7-year closed 5.25% N/C
  • 10-year closed 5.59% N/C

-30-

For further information: Tashlin Hirani, Media Relations, Corporate and Public Affairs, TD Bank Financial Group, (416) 982-3375

TORONTO, June 25 /CNW/ – CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) today announced the following changes in mortgage rates:

  • Six-month convertible 4.85 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Six-month open 6.70 per cent, no change
  • One-year open 6.45 per cent, no change
  • One-year closed 3.60 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Two-year closed 3.95 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Three-year closed 4.60 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Four-year closed 5.54 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Five-year closed 5.89 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Seven-year closed 6.95 per cent, down 0.10 per cent
  • Ten-year closed 7.00 per cent, down 0.10 per cent

These rates are effective Saturday, June 26, 2010.

Alberta’s economy to rebound this year, lead nation in GDP growth

More good news on the economy that does not make the papers.

Alberta’s economy to rebound this year, lead nation in GDP growth

Oil sands investment boosts forecast of 4.1% spurt

CALGARY – Alberta will experience a significant economic rebound this year and lead the nation in GDP growth, says a report released today by Scotiabank.

The report forecast GDP growth of 4.1 per cent for the province while overall Canadian growth would be 3.6 per cent, the strongest advance in a decade for the country. In 2011, Scotiabank is forecasting Alberta economic growth at 3.4 per cent – tied with Saskatchewan for the best in Canada. Nationally, it is predicting Canadian GDP at 2.7 per cent next year.

Scotiabank said a strong pickup in investment will fuel growth in the energy and manufacturing sectors this year in Alberta.

“Investment has perked up in the oil sands, as easing costs and higher oil prices revived investment intentions in late 2009, with $2.2 billion in outlays scheduled for 2010 alone,” said the report. “Renewed activity in the industry will lead to significant benefits flowing through the economy, with manufacturing and services all heavily tied to conditions in the energy sector. While the bulk of investment will stem from oil sand development and tight oil plays, recent revisions to the province’s royalty framework are a major positive for the natural gas industry.”

mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

Buyers still enjoy exceptional rates

Buyers still enjoy exceptional rates

Memories of 22 per cent in early ’80s

By Marty Hope, Calgary HeraldJune 12, 2010

It’s far from panic, but there is concern in the marketplace regarding resale housing — and much of this concern is around rising mortgage rates at a time when selling prices are in flux.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: homebuyers today have it exceptionally good when it comes to mortgage rates.

I moved to Calgary and bought in the early 1980s when mortgage rates were something like 22 per cent. Try that on for size — and compare it with what the rates are today, even after they moved off the historic bottom.

Then there was the commentator I heard on TV the other night saying the latest movement would add just $20 per month per $100,000 to the monthly mortgage.

Granted, there will be some who will find it difficult to cope with that marginal increase, but for most it’s easily covered.

And yes, the overall average price reported by the Calgary Real Estate Board did go up by more than $20,000 in May from April, but that’s because there were so many high-end properties changing hands.

Board figures show that during May, 52 homes priced at $1 million or more were sold compared with 29 the month before. Take those numbers out of the equation and average prices are going down.

Here are a couple of examples.

Two months ago, the average price of detached single-family homes in the southwest was $506,000. By the end of May, it had fallen to $472,500.

The southeast average slipped by less than $5,000 in two months and in the northeast, the decline was more than $10,000 — in one month.

Realtor Bryan Morrow of Re/ Max First is one who believes sales will continue to decline while listings increase. Good old supply and demand, again.

He agrees with the suggestion that upward average prices are being skewed by the number of upper-end deals — but there’s another calculation he rolls out.

He’s compiled a graph that tracks price reductions — and the fever line on that graph is pointing up.

For sellers, it’s not a good thing.

“Clearly with asking prices now being reduced en masse, it seems clear that the stats will begin to confirm the fact in a month or two at the most,” says Morrow.

This scenario is not one that realtors want to see.

“We, like lots of other hardworking realtors, have properties for sale and no one likes to suggest to their clients that perhaps they’ll need to reduce their price expectations. However, it is what we do when we see the wheels coming off and prices in decline — with no end in sight,” says Morrow.

Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, says a market decline in sales was noted in May. The number of detached homes sold that month was down 20 per cent compared to a year ago, while condo deals fell by 21 per cent.

It marks an inauspicious start to the second quarter of the year.

“The first quarter of 2010 was exceptionally strong, with our spring sales coming early in the wake of anticipated mortgage hikes,” says Scott. But mortgage rates alone didn’t bring about the slowdown, she says, adding there was a reduced number of first-time buyers being active, a rise in monthly carrying costs brought on by higher mortgage rates, and international issues out of the control of almost everyone.

“Consumers are feeling a little nervous about the recent instability of the stock markets — and with the mortgage rate hikes behind us, it’s understandable that feelings of urgency among buyers have lessened,” says Scott.

While the number of first-timers has slowed, there has been an increase in the head count of move-up buyers, she says in the board’s monthly activity report.

“Our inventory is shifting to higher price points as move-up buyers enter the market,” says Scott. ” Nonetheless, our days on market year over year has decreased, suggesting that competitively-priced homes are selling.”

There is instability in the market, as there has been before. How long this will continue is anybody’s guess — but probably until such time as rates move again and people decide to jump into ownership before rates and prices get even higher — at least, that’s my guess.

mhope@theherald.canwest.com

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