Canada in middle of growth spurt, to lead G7 in first half of 2011: OECD
Canada is like the average student in the poor class, not the brilliant student in an average class. But, as Charlie Sheen says, “winning!”
By The Associated Press
OTTAWA – A leading international think-tank says Canada will lead its peers in the G7 in economic growth during the first half of this year. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development says the outlook for economic growth has brightened for all G7 countries, with the exception of Japan .
But the improvement has been most marked in Canada and to a lesser extent the United States.
“The outlook for growth today looks significantly better than it looked a few months back,” OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan said in a statement.
“Growth perspectives are higher all across the OECD area, and the recovery is becoming self-sustained, which means there will be less need for fiscal or monetary policy support.”
Canada is now expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2011, and 3.8 per cent in the current second quarter.
Much of that growth has come from the resources sector in Western Canada and continued strength in the housing market in most parts of the country.
Germany is the next strongest economy, with growth rates of 3.7 and 2.3 per cent in the two quarters.
Overall, the Paris-based organization says the G7 economies excluding Japan are set to grow at an annual rate of about three per cent in the first half of 2011, well above the organization’s previous forecast.
The growth estimates given by the OECD are the middle of a range, meaning the rates could be slightly lower or higher.
The new forecasts exclude Japan because of the uncertainty over the full cost of damage from last month’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster.
The Canadian economy began the year with an impressive 0.5 per cent expansion in January that has set the stage for the strongest quarter in a year, according to Statistics Canada.
The performance was in line with market projections, but still was a mild surprise because many economists had worried of a possible payback after December’s equally robust 0.5 per cent gain in gross domestic product.
The strong back-to-back months put the economy on pace to grow by as much as 4.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, analysts have said. That’s two whole points more than the Bank of Canada’s now-dated estimate. At that growth rate, the pace of job creation should be high enough to continue pushing down the national unemployment rate, currently 7.8 per cent.
In the last year, the Canadian economy has created 322,000 jobs and has rebounded nicely from the 2008-2009 recession that battered the country’s manufacturing sector.
In some sectors of the economy, price pressures have been building, raising the prospect of higher interest rates down the road to fight inflationary pressures.
The next scheduled announcement on interest rates from the Bank of Canada is April 12, although the central bank isn’t expected to change its policy rate at that time from the current one per cent. Another announcement is scheduled for May 31, after the federal election.
Most economists believe Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will leave a hike on the sidelines until July http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Canada-middle-growth-spurt-capress-340380811.html?x=0
Alberta’s raw materials will fuel small real estate boom
Comment – this is what caused the inital boom – high inter-province relocations to Calgary. Why? Do you know that Ft. Mac has the world’s largest oil reserves that are not government owned!
Kevin Usselman
The world wants what Alberta has an abundance of; namely energy, food, fertilizer and lumber.
Cutting Edge Research President Don Campbell has been tracking Canadian real estate for 19 years and he says the province is in a good position to cash in.
Campbell says vacancy rates are again on the decline while job creation numbers are on the rise.
He says Alberta’s economy is going to act like a magnet in the next 18 to 24 months and people need places to live.
Subsequently, Campbell has a rather bullish economic and housing forecast for the province and for Calgary in particular.
He doesn’t believe Calgarians are going to see another housing boom like the one experienced back in 2006-2007, but thinks sales and prices could rise anywhere from seven to 12 per cent by 2013.
Campbell is also glad to see the city moving forward with major transportation projects like the west leg of the LRT, although he’s disappointed more efforts aren’t being made to address the secondary suite issue.
Calgary ranks third on global prosperity score card
Calgary ranks third on global prosperity score card: Toronto Board of Trade
BY KIM GUTTORMSON, CALGARY HERALD
Calgary is back near the top of a score card that ranks prosperity in a number of cities around the world, besting all other Canadian metros on the list.
Strong population growth, a young workforce, disposable income, affordable housing and clean air helped boost the city to the number three spot on the list behind Paris and San Francisco.
That’s up from last year’s fifth place ranking, but below its first place finish in 2009, the first time the Toronto Board of Trade compiled results, using information from the Conference Board of Canada — including commute time, income equality, gross domestic product and productivity — to compare 24 major cities.
However, Calgary did score low in some key areas, including transportation.
“I think it speaks to Calgary’s more dynamic economy, more dynamic than we had in the ‘80s when it took us years to crawl out of the recession,” Todd Hirsch, senior economist at ATB Financial, said of the city’s post-recession recovery. “What you’d really hate is to be extremely high in some (indicators) and at the bottom on others.
“You’d rather be really good on a number of indicators and get an overall ranking quite high, like Calgary got.”
The Toronto board of Trade said “Calgary’s success comes from a combination of solid fundamentals in both (economy and labour attractiveness), not just from a robust economy. With the fastest population growth of all metros, Calgary proved that it was an attractive place for people seeking work.
“Calgary’s housing affordability and clean air provide further evidence of its livability.”
Elsbeth Mehrer, director of research, workforce and strategy for Calgary Economic Development, says the city’s ranking shows it should be a choice destination for both companies and people.
“To be able to put the city in the context of major global cities like Paris and San Francisco, that’s an important frame around our positioning,” she said. “I think that helps to elevate the conversation to a different level.
“If you’re comparing yourselves with communities of this stature, now it’s a very different conversation in terms of the types of target companies you’re trying to attract, the types of investment.”
On the score card Calgary ranked third overall, and third for being attractive to workers (behind Paris and London).
The ability to attract labour is important, said Chamber of Commerce chief economist Ben Brunnen, because “the labour shortage, labour retention issue is starting to emerge again. Positioning Calgary as a destination for young talent is a fundamental first step for long-term prosperity.”
Calgary placed sixth if only the economy was looked at (behind San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Dallas and New York).
The Toronto Board of Trade wrote that Calgary overcame “near-bottom rankings on venture capital investment, market size, and IPOs, with first or second-place results on income growth, unemployment rate, residential building permit growth and GDP growth” to get to that sixth spot.
Calgary’s average office rents also put them in the top half of the rankings, in that they’re cheaper than more than 50 per cent of the list.
In the first three months of 2011, according to CB Richard Ellis, Calgary’s office vacancy fell to 12 per cent from 15 per cent compared to the same period a year before. Regional managing director for Alberta Greg Kwong said in a release that given the amount of office space coming onto the Calgary market, the drop is “amazing. This is a testament to how resilient Calgary’s office market has become.”
However, for all the good news, the city rated an overall 13th place in the transportation category.
That factored in an average commute time of 67 minutes, longer than Los Angeles, Chicago and Berlin, but better than Toronto’s 80 minutes, and a score in the bottom half when public transit ridership was evaluated.
“It points out some of the warts, too,” Hirsch said of the score card. “It’s good to be made aware of this is where we rank in global cities when it comes to commute times. A 60-minute commute time is not normal, this not just being part of a big city.
“This is a problem. Who knows where we would be if we could solve some of those transportation problems.”
Calgary also ranked lower in areas that included productivity and venture capital, which Mehrer said are on-going issues the city’s business community knows need work.
“It reaffirms what we know needs to be a focus,” she said.
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
‘Window closing’ on ultra-low mortgage rates
Essentially we are in artificially low interest rates and the government is expecting rates to come up to normal levels in the near future. Bond yields are continuing to put pressure on long term mortgage rates and we will continue to see the rates moving upward this year. The government is also trying to make it more difficult for individuals to qualify for insured mortgages. This article, from the Financial Post, speculates rates will increase rates by May.
Enjoy the Read!
Amid the noise of volatile-but-improving economic indicators, mortgage rate hikes are likely to repeat like a chorus in the coming months.
Canadian banks are raising interest rates on mortgages, marking the beginning of a trend as they correlate with rising bond yields and expected monetary tightening.
That’s making a strong case for borrowers to lock into fixed rates before it’s too late, said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets. “The window is closing.”
TD Canada Trust and CIBC both announced Monday hikes to their residential mortgage rates, the first increases since changes to the rules of borrowing were announced by the federal government last month. The other big banks where expected to follow the moves shortly.
Effective Feb. 8, the interest rate on the banks’ benchmark five-year closed fixed rate mortgage will increase 25 basis points to 5.44%. The country’s other major lenders are expected to soon follow suit.
Toronto mortgage broker Paula Roberts said rising borrowing costs will compel more of her clients to abandon ultra-low variable rates in favour of higher, fixed-rate mortgages.
That can be a tough decision for borrowers to accept higher payments, but not one that should strain a mortgagee’s finances, she said.
“If you can’t afford [your payments] … that’s a problem,” Ms. Roberts said. “That’s why the government has changed the rules.”
In two stages over the past year the federal government announced changes to the conditions of mortgage lending — shortening the maximum amortization from 35 years to 30 years and requiring borrowers to qualify for a fixed-rate plan, even if they are opting for a variable rate.
Many who only qualify under the old rules, however, will try to secure mortgages before the shorter maximum amortization periods come into effect next month, Ms. Roberts said.
“There are going to be a lot of people that will enter into their agreements by March 18.”
Much of the momentum in mortgage rates can be attributed to a bond selloff and rising yields across the board. That effect is partly a reflection of building global inflationary pressures as well as a global economy that is proving more robust than expected.
“In my opinion, the bond market will not be the place to be over the next six months, and if that’s the case, you will see mortgage rates continue to rise,” Mr. Tal said.
In addition, anticipation of increases to the Bank of Canada’s benchmark lending rates is building, also contributing to rising yields, which puts pressure on fixed-income mortgages.
If there was any lingering doubt that the Bank will soon raise rates, last week’s jobs report erased them. The report showed Canada added four times more jobs than expected in January.
“[It] creates a fairly powerful story for the Bank of Canada, which is clearly concerned on the domestic front,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at the Bank of Nova Scotia. “I think there’s a material change.”
So do investors. The probability that the central bank will boost its key policy rate by May, as measured by overnight index swaps, jumped to almost 75% after the jobs data.
Source: Financial Post
Info your banks would prefer you didn’t know
What your Bank doesn’t want you to know
| Monday, 28 February 2011 22:47 |
A list of some pertinent information your banks would prefer you didn’t know:
|
ALBERTA HOUSING MARKET MOST AFFORDABLE IN CANADA: RBC ECONOMICS
TORONTO, Feb. 24 /CNW/ – Alberta’s housing market officially became the most affordable in Canada in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released today by RBC.
Thanks to lower mortgage rates and further softening in home prices, RBC’s Affordability Measures for Alberta fell yet again in the fourth quarter, by 1.0 to 2.4 percentage points, extending their long strings of declines since late 2007.
“Alberta saw a notable downswing in demand for housing last spring and early summer, giving buyers the upper hand and pushing prices down,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “Alberta’s reign as the most affordable housing market may be short lived, however. Demand has shown more vigour in recent months, alongside a provincial economy that is gaining more traction, and Alberta’s market has become better balanced. We expect that this will stem price declines this year and erase a potential offset to the negative effect of a projected rise in interest rates on affordability.”
The RBC Housing Affordability Measures for Alberta, which capture the province’s proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home, eased across all housing categories in the fourth quarter. The measure for the benchmark detached bungalow moved down to 30.9 per cent (a drop of 2.4 percentage points from the previous quarter), the standard condominium to 20.3 per cent (down 1.0 percentage points) and the standard two-storey home to 34.4 per cent (down 2.2 percentage points).
The RBC report notes that gradual and steady improvements in Calgary’s housing demand have recently started to bolster market conditions as home resales increased appreciably since June which helped trim down the slack that kept buyers in the driver’s seat.
A return to more balanced market conditions in Calgary, however, did not succeed in reversing the tide in the fourth quarter of 2010 as home prices continued to weaken for the most part in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, this contributed to further material improvement in affordability. The RBC Measures for Calgary again fell the most among Canada’s largest urban markets, declining by 0.9 to 3.1 percentage points.
“Affordability in the Calgary area is now the best in almost six years and this attractive level of affordability will support further increases in demand as the local economy picks up steam in the year ahead,” added Hogue.
Elsewhere in the country, a majority of provinces saw improvements in affordability in the fourth quarter. Only the standard two-storey benchmark became less affordable in Ontario and Quebec, as did the standard condominium apartment in Quebec and the Atlantic region.
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income.
CANADIAN HOMEOWNERSHIP COSTS EASE FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE QUARTER: RBC ECONOMICS
This is great news.
TORONTO, Feb. 24 /CNW/ – Canada’s housing affordability continued to improve in the fourth quarter of 2010, thanks in part to slight decreases in five-year fixed mortgage rates and minimal home price appreciation across the country, according to the latest Housing Trends and Affordability report released today by RBC Economics Research.
“Some of the stress that had been building in the housing market between 2009 and the first half of 2010 has been relieved, but tensions persist overall and the recent improvement in affordability is likely to be short-lived,” said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. “We expect that the Bank of Canada will resume its rate hike campaign this spring and with borrowing costs set to climb further in the next two years, housing affordability will erode across the country. That said, we don’t expect this to derail the housing market because of rising household income and job creation from the sustained economic recovery.”
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure captures the proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a specified category of home. During the fourth quarter of 2010, measures at the national level fell between 0.4 and 0.8 percentage points across the housing types tracked by RBC (a decrease represents an improvement in affordability).
The detached bungalow benchmark measure eased by 0.8 of a percentage point to 39.9 per cent, the standard condominium measure declined by 0.4 of a percentage point to 27.6 per cent and the standard two-storey home decreased 0.4 percentage points to 46.0 per cent.
“We expect affordability measures will rise gradually in the next three years or so while monetary policy is readjusted, but will land softly thereafter once interest rates stabilize at higher levels,” added Hogue. “This pattern would be consistent with moderate yet sustained stress on Canada’s housing market. Overall, the era of rapid home price appreciation of the past 10 years has likely run its course and we believe that Canada has entered a period of very modest increases.”
A majority of provinces saw improvements in affordability in the fourth quarter, most notably in Alberta where falling home prices once again contributed to lower the bar for affording a home. Only the standard two-storey benchmark became less affordable in Ontario and Quebec, as did the standard condominium apartment in Quebec and the Atlantic region.
RBC’s Housing Affordability Measure for a detached bungalow in Canada’s largest cities is as follows: Vancouver 68.7 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points from the last quarter), Toronto 46.8 per cent (down 0.5 percentage points), Montreal 41.3 per cent (down 0.4 percentage points), Ottawa 38.7 per cent (up 0.5 percentage points), Calgary 34.9 per cent (down 3.1 percentage points) and Edmonton 31.0 per cent (down 2.4 percentage points).
The RBC Housing Affordability Measure, which has been compiled since 1985, is based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property benchmark for the housing market in Canada. Alternative housing types are also presented including a standard two-storey home and a standard condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. For example, an affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 per cent of a typical household’s monthly pre-tax income.
Highlights from across Canada:
- British Columbia: Buying a home in B.C. became slightly more affordable in the fourth quarter of 2010, due primarily to a small drop in mortgage rates. After experiencing some declines in the previous quarter, home prices rose modestly for most housing categories; condominium apartments bucked the trend, however, and depreciated slightly. Prices were supported by a tightening in market conditions with home resales picking up smartly following substantial cooling in the spring and summer that saw sellers lose their edge in setting property values. Demand and supply in the province are judged to be quite balanced at this point. RBC’s Affordability Measures fell between 0.8 and 1.0 percentage points in the fourth quarter which came on the heels of much more substantial drops (1.7 to 4.8 percentage points) in the third quarter. Notwithstanding these declines, affordability remains poor and will weigh on housing demand going forward.
- Alberta: Alberta officially became the most affordable provincial market in the country in the fourth quarter, according to the RBC Measures which fell once again by 1.0 to 2.4 percentage points, extending their declines since late-2007. In addition to the lower mortgage rates, the further depreciation of home prices contributed to lowering homeownership costs. Property values were negatively affected by a substantial downswing in demand in the spring and early summer, which put buyers in the drivers’ seat. The significant improvement in affordability is near the end of its line, however, as demand has shown more vigour in recent months – alongside a provincial economy that is gaining more traction – and the market has become better balanced. RBC expects that this will stem price declines this year, thereby removing a potential offset to the negative effect of projected rise in interest rates on affordability.
How the recession changed us
Below is a very cool graph on how the worst recession of our life times has changed the American life-style. Click on it to make it nice and big.
‘Window closing’ on ultra-low mortgage rates
Tim Shufelt, Financial Post · Monday, Feb. 7, 2011
Amid the noise of volatile-but-improving economic indicators, mortgage rate hikes are likely to repeat like a chorus in the coming months.
Canadian banks are raising interest rates on mortgages, marking the beginning of a trend as they correlate with rising bond yields and expected monetary tightening.
That’s making a strong case for borrowers to lock into fixed rates before it’s too late, said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist with CIBC World Markets. “The window is closing.”
TD Canada Trust and CIBC both announced Monday hikes to their residential mortgage rates, the first increases since changes to the rules of borrowing were announced by the federal government last month. The other big banks where expected to follow the moves shortly.
Effective Feb. 8, the interest rate on the banks’ benchmark five-year closed fixed rate mortgage will increase 25 basis points to 5.44%. The country’s other major lenders are expected to soon follow suit.
Toronto mortgage broker Paula Roberts said rising borrowing costs will compel more of her clients to abandon ultra-low variable rates in favour of higher, fixed-rate mortgages.
That can be a tough decision for borrowers to accept higher payments, but not one that should strain a mortgagee’s finances, she said.
“If you can’t afford [your payments] … that’s a problem,” Ms. Roberts said. “That’s why the government has changed the rules.”
In two stages over the past year the federal government announced changes to the conditions of mortgage lending — shortening the maximum amortization from 35 years to 30 years and requiring borrowers to qualify for a fixed-rate plan, even if they are opting for a variable rate.
Many who only qualify under the old rules, however, will try to secure mortgages before the shorter maximum amortization periods come into effect next month, Ms. Roberts said.
“There are going to be a lot of people that will enter into their agreements by March 18.”
Much of the momentum in mortgage rates can be attributed to a bond selloff and rising yields across the board. That effect is partly a reflection of building global inflationary pressures as well as a global economy that is proving more robust than expected.
“In my opinion, the bond market will not be the place to be over the next six months, and if that’s the case, you will see mortgage rates continue to rise,” Mr. Tal said.
In addition, anticipation of increases to the Bank of Canada’s benchmark lending rates is building, also contributing to rising yields, which puts pressure on fixed-income mortgages.
If there was any lingering doubt that the Bank will soon raise rates, last week’s jobs report erased them. The report showed Canada added four times more jobs than expected in January.
“[It] creates a fairly powerful story for the Bank of Canada, which is clearly concerned on the domestic front,” said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at the Bank of Nova Scotia. “I think there’s a material change.”
So do investors. The probability that the central bank will boost its key policy rate by May, as measured by overnight index swaps, jumped to almost 75% after the jobs data. http://www.financialpost.com/news/Window+closing+ultra+mortgage+rates/4239243/story.html#ixzz1DMwQzyWP
ALBERTA’S ECONOMY SET FOR STRONG GROWTH IN 2011 WITH BOOST FROM ENERGY SECTOR: RBC ECONOMICS
Comment – this is some of the data that was used in my MARKet Update / Buyers Report. Feel free to download it for free on my site here: http://markherman.ca/Rate2.ubr
ALBERTA’S ECONOMY SET FOR STRONG GROWTH IN 2011 WITH BOOST FROM ENERGY SECTOR: RBC ECONOMICS
TORONTO, Dec. 15 /CNW/ – Alberta’s economy continues to recover from its severe recession with real GDP set to grow 3.4 per cent in 2010 and then galloping to a solid 4.3 per cent in 2011, according to the latest Provincial Outlook report from RBC Economics. In 2011, RBC projects that Alberta’s economic growth will be second only to Saskatchewan, representing the fastest growth in the province since 2006.
Alberta’s strong forecast is owed to improvements in a number of areas, particularly the booming energy sector and increased job creation since spring which helped to bring down the stubbornly high unemployment rate.
“Improvements in the employment market helped reverse the net migration outflow to other provinces that earlier slowed population growth to the lowest rate in 15 years,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “These are the kinds of turnarounds that will spread the recovery more widely throughout Alberta’s economy next year.”
The RBC report notes Alberta’s employment sector is expected to lead the country with a rise of 2.3 per cent in 2011, up significantly from a scant 0.5 per cent in 2010. The anticipated increase represents the creation of 37,000 jobs and will usher in the highest total of new employment opportunities since 2007 which should ultimately contribute to a boost in population growth.
“With interest in developing Alberta’s oil sands growing ever higher, the gush of capital spending on megaprojects is expected to continue next year and beyond. This will pump tremendous activity into the provincial economy and act as a catalyst for both faster job growth and stronger migration from outside the province,” added Wright.
According to the RBC Economics Provincial Outlook, the impact of Alberta’s strengthening demographics will be especially positive for consumer spending in 2011 as retail sales are expected to soar to a rate of 5.6 per cent, higher than any other province. This, along with the 5.1 per cent increase in consumer spending expected this year, will go along way toward reversing the massive 8.4 per cent decline experienced in 2009.
Looking ahead to 2012, the rising tide of energy-related spending and the expanding of non-conventional oil production will continue to exert powerful lifting forces throughout the Alberta economy. RBC forecasts the province will sustain a solid pace of growth with GDP of 3.8 per cent which will keep the province near the top of Canada’s growth rankings.
The RBC Economics Provincial Outlook assesses the provinces according to economic growth, employment growth, unemployment rates, retail sales, housing stars and consumer price indexes.