Net Migration to Alberta – #’s here.
the CORE reason home prices in Calgary will be going up for the next 4 years, and are 100% supported and will not be coming down is summed up in this article right here.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-population-records-2023-to-2024-data-1.7157110
Summary of the Main Reasons Home Prices are Supported:
- BC and Ontario home prices are DOUBLE Calgary home prices
- 4 million New Canadians on the way here in the next 5 years.
- We hatched the largest 20 – 29 year old population Canada has EVER had, and they are moving out of their parent’s basements and buying their own homes.
- Alberta does NOT have PST
- Alberta does not have a 1% “welcome to the neighborhood tax” when buying property.
After researching the above data points we can confidently say all 5 of these stacked factors will cause home prices to increase is all price ranges for the next few years.
Mortgage Mark Herman, licensed as a top Alberta Mortgage Broker for 21 years and 1 year in BC
Persistent inflation leads the Bank of Canada to increase benchmark interest rate
UGH! The BoC whacks borrowers again.
Mark Herman, Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight interest rate to 5.00% (+0.25% from June) because of the “accumulation of evidence” that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent and after taking into account its “revised outlook for economic activity and inflation.”
This decision was not unexpected by analysts but is disconcerting – as is the Bank’s pledge to continue its policy of quantitative tightening.
To understand today’s decision and the Bank’s current thinking on inflation, interest rates and the economy, we highlight its latest observations below:
Inflation facts and outlook
- In Canada, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.4% in May, a “substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer”
- While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from an easing of “underlying inflation”
- With the large price increases of last year removed from the annual data, there will be less near-term “downward momentum” in CPI inflation
- Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3.5% to 4% since last September, “underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated”, an outcome that is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which found businesses are “still increasing their prices more frequently than normal”
- Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation; however, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services
Canadian housing and economic performance
- Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand
- Consumption growth was “surprisingly strong” at 5.8% in the first quarter
- While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy
- The housing market has seen some pickup
- New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices
- In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%
- Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing
Global economic performance and outlook
- Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been “surprisingly” resilient
- After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector
- Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting
- Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation
- The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report projects the global economy will grow by “around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025”
Summary and Outlook
As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the BoC expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of 2023 and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The Canadian economy will then move into “modest excess supply” early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.
In its July Monetary Policy Report, the Bank noted that CPI inflation is forecast to “hover” around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in its January and April projections. As a result, the Bank’s Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards its 2% inflation target “could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.”
In terms of what Canadians can expect in the near term, the Bank had this to say: “Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”
Stay tuned
September 6th, 2023 is the Bank’s next scheduled policy rate announcement. Will there be 1x more increase?
New Mortgage Rules 2023: Expanding the “Stress Test” to Everything?
This is from the Desk of Dr. Cooper, our Economist, and this data is 1 of the reason we are at Dominion Lending – to get this data.
Below is the details of the government expanding the STRESS TEST, or other mechanisms, to make it harder to buy a home.
OSFI Is Concerned About Federally Insured Lender Exposure to Mortgage Risk.
Late last week, the Office of the Superintendent for Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced it was concerned about the risks associated with the large and rising number of highly indebted borrowers, especially those with floating-rate mortgages, which stands at a record proportion of outstanding mortgage loans.
With the economy in danger of entering a recession and the Bank of Canada warning of potentially more rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, the housing market may face continued pressure in the coming months.
A record number of buyers used floating-rate debt for purchases during Canada’s pandemic-era real estate boom. Those borrowers may come under increasing strain if mortgage costs remain high. Job losses from an economic slowdown also would make it harder for people to keep up with loan payments and stay in their homes.
Superintendent of Financial Institutions Peter Routledge said a review of the country’s mortgage-underwriting rules that starts later this week would look beyond its current main measure — a stress test requiring borrowers to qualify for higher interest rates than what their banks are offering.
“The question in our minds is, is it sufficient?” Routledge said of the current stress test. “So we will look at a broader range of debt-serviceability tools, including debt-to-income constraints, debt-service constraints, as well as the current interest-rate stress test tool.”
The proposed rules—subject to public consultation—include loan-to-income and debt-to-income restrictions, new interest rate affordability stress tests and debt-service coverage restrictions.
Highly Indebted Borrowers
OSFI is particularly concerned about the rise in mortgage originations to households with a loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more, which the Bank of Canada has long asserted is the sector most at risk of delinquency and default. This risk has repeatedly been highlighted in the Bank’s financial risk analysis–the Governing Council’s Financial System Review. The latest report says, “Those with high debt are more vulnerable to a decline in income and will face more financial strain when they renew their mortgages at higher rates.”
This vulnerability relates to households’ ability to continue servicing their debt if incomes decline or interest rates rise without significantly reducing their consumption. The Bank staff estimate that the most highly indebted households have generally seen the smallest increases in liquid assets. At the same time, alongside higher house prices, many households have taken out sizable mortgages to purchase a house, adding to the already large share of highly indebted households.
The chart below shows that the average share of high loan-to-income borrowers before the pandemic was 23.8%. The average since the pandemic onset has risen to 33.7%.
Proposals for Comment
To date, mortgage delinquency rates at federally regulated financial institutions (FRFIs) are at a record low. The large FRFIs have worked closely with borrowers who have reached their trigger points. TD, CIBC, and BMO have allowed some negative amortizations until renewal. As a result, the proportion of their mortgages having remaining amortizations has risen sharply (see second chart below). Questions remain regarding how they will deal with this at renewal time. Will the new mortgage be amortized at 25 years at renewal, raising the monthly payments dramatically and increasing the risk of delinquency or default, especially among highly indebted households?
Earlier last week, CEOs of the Big 5 banks weighed in on vulnerable mortgage clients. None were quite as forthcoming as Scotiabank’s new President and CEO, Scott Thomson, who said the bank has about 20,000 borrowers that it considers “vulnerable.” These are borrowers with a high loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage, a low credit score, lower deposits in their checking accounts and those with home valuations that are susceptible to market conditions.
“So, as you think about the tail risk, we have about 20,000 vulnerable customers, which would be 2.5% [of the total portfolio],” he said Monday during the RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank CEO Conference.
However, he added this represents a “manageable-type situation for us on mortgages.” Scotiabank’s floating-rate mortgages are not fixed payment. They adjust monthly payments every time the central bank changes the overnight rate.
According to Steve Huebl at Canadian Mortgage Trends, RBC President and CEO Dave McKay said that his bank is “keeping a watchful eye on its mortgage clients, turning to AI and various types of modelling to forecast clients’ cash flow.”
“We look at incomes, we look at the stress of inflation on expenses in a household, and we monitor cash flow to interest payments, as you would in any corporation,” McKay said during the conference. “We do that [for] every single consumer in our portfolio because over 80% of our clients have their core checking and core cash management with us.”
Looking at the bank’s variable-rate mortgage portfolio, which totals between $100 and $120 billion, McKay said the bank has been able to segment that group of clients, keeping tabs on when they reach their trigger rates and when they’ll be coming up for rate resets in the next several years.
Through modelling, the bank can then predict which clients with upcoming renewals “will or will not have a cash flow challenge” should the economy enter a moderate or severe recession, he said. “We have a pretty clear view of that.”
For clients who have difficulties making their payments, mortgage lenders have several options to try and assist borrowers before the situation progresses to the point of them needing to sell their homes.
“You have skip-a-payment deferrals, you have maturity extensions, whatever it happens to be, you have a lot of ways to work with that client,” McKay said.
In terms of clients with cash flow challenges in addition to a collateral problem, where the property sale wouldn’t cover their mortgage and could result in default, McKay said it’s a much smaller group but one the bank is actively monitoring.
“That bucket, I can tell you, is in the low single-digit percentages of our portfolio,” he said. “And that’s the bucket we’re managing”.
Bottom Line
To the extent these measures are implemented, further pressure on mortgage growth is likely. Mortgage brokers can access lenders not impacted by OSFI B-20 rule changes. More than ever, brokers could add value to borrowers turned away from the banks. In these uncertain times, existing and new clients need advice from a trained and caring professional.
Canadian Prime Rate is now 5.95% – Mortgage Rate Analysis to End of 2022
Bank of Canada increased benchmark interest rate to 3.75%
Today, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight benchmark interest rate 50 basis point to 3.75% from 3.25% in September. This is the sixth time this year that the Bank has tightened money supply to quell inflation, so far with limited results.
Some economists had assumed the increase this time around would be higher, but the BoC decided differently based on its expert economic analysis. We summarize the Bank’s observations below, including its all-important outlook:
Inflation at home and abroad
- Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based reflecting the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices
- Energy prices particularly have inflated due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine
- The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries
- In Canada, two-thirds of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components increased more than 5% over the past year
- Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched
Economic performance at home and abroad
- Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world
- In Canada, the economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight while Canadian demand for goods and services is “still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them,” putting upward pressure on domestic inflation
- Canadian businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services
- Domestic economic growth is “expected to stall” through the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy
- The Bank projects GDP growth will slow from 3.25% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024
- In the United States, labour markets remain “very tight” even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity
- The Bank projects no growth in the US economy “through most of next year”
- In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages
- China’s economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, “although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth”
- The Bank projects global economic growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1.5% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2.5% in 2024 – a slower pace than was projected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report
Canadian housing market
- The effects of recent policy rate increases by the Bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy including housing
- Housing activity has “retreated sharply,” and spending by households and businesses is softening
Outlook
The Bank noted that its “preferred measures of core inflation” are not yet showing “meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing.” It did however offer the observation that CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to its 2% target by the end of 2024. This presumably would be achieved as “higher interest rates help re-balance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply chain disruptions fade and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate.”
As a consequence of elevated inflation and current inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Bank’s Governing Council said to expect that “the policy interest rate will need to rise further.”
The level of such future rate increases will be influenced by the Bank’s assessments of “how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding.”
In case there was any doubt, the Bank also reiterated its “resolute commitment” to restore price stability for Canadians and said it will continue to take action as required to achieve its 2% inflation target.
NEXT RATE INCREASE
December 7, 2022 is the BoC’s next scheduled policy interest rate announcement. We will follow the Bank’s commentary and outlook closely and provide an executive summary here the same day.
Details of the FTHBI – First Time Home Buyer Incentive
The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI) officially starts on September 2, 2019. Introduced help first-time home buyers, the FTHBI will provide shared equity loans of 5% toward the down payment of a resale home, and 5% or 10% for newly-built homes.
The idea is that by boosting the size of buyers’ down payments, the FTHBI lowers the monthly mortgage payment and is some relief on the costs of home ownership.
Details of Qualification
To qualify for the FTHBI, home buyers must satisfy the following:
- At least one person in the household must be a first-time home buyer, meaning they have not owned a home, or dwelled in a home owned by their spouse, over the last four years. (An exception is made for buyers who’ve had a breakdown of marriage or common-law relationship.)
- Buyers must have a minimum of 5% down payment from “own resources” to qualify for a CMHC insured mortgage.
- Buyers’ combined household income cannot exceed $120,000. This includes the income of any guarantors co-signing on the mortgage, as well as any rental income generated if part of the home is tenanted out.
- The buyers’ Mortgage-to-Income Ratio (MTI) cannot exceed 4x their income, including the portion that’s provided by the FTHBI. This means the maximum down payment for a resale home cannot exceed 14.99%, and 9.99% for a new build.
Details of How It Works
The funds provided are registered as a second mortgage on title, and don’t incur interest.
This second mortgage must be paid back in full when the first insured mortgage matures at 25 years or when the home is sold, whichever comes first. Homeowners may pay it back as a lump sum early without penalty. (Details of how the value at the time of payout are yet to be released.)
Because it is a shared equity mortgage, the amount to be paid back fluctuates along with the value of the home over time: if the home’s assessed value rises, the loan repayment will increase by the same percent. However, the same will occur if the home has lost value by the time it is sold or the mortgage matures.
There are more details on the last post on savings including this chart below: http://markherman.ca/updates-to-cmhc-first-time-buyer-incentive-program/
Savings Over Time
This is a handy chart to see the savings on the monthly payment when using the program.
OVERALL
The program looks to be a helper for saving on payments and that is a great thing.
Mark Herman, Top& Best Calgary Mortgage Broker
Inverted Yield Curves, Impacts on Prime Rate Changes and Variable Rate Mortgages
Summary:
For the 2nd time in 50 years the “Yield Curve” has inverted – meaning that long term rates are now lower than short term rates. This can signal a recession is on the way.
This Means …
- Alberta will look better comparatively to Canada’s hot housing markets which should finally cool down.
- Canada’s Prime rate increases look to be on hold until Spring. This makes the variable rates now look MUCH Better. There were 3 rate increases expected and these may not materialize – making the VARIABLE rate look better.
- Broker lender’s have VARIABLE rates that range between .1% and .65% BETTER than the banks do. If you are looking at variable rates we should look further into this in more detail.
DATA BELOW …
- More on the predictions on rate increases
- WTF is an inverted Yield Curve – lifted from “the Hustle”
-
Predictions on Prime
Three interest rate hikes in 2019 — that’s what economists have been predicting for months, as part of the Bank of Canada’s ongoing strategy to keep the country’s inflation levels in check. But, according to one economist, that plan may have changed.
The BoC held the overnight rate at 1.75 percent yesterday, and released a statement a senior economist at TD, believes hints that the next hike may not come until next spring.
“We no longer expect the Bank of Canada to hike its policy interest rate in January,” he writes, in a recent note examining the BoC’s decision. “Spring 2019 now appears to be the more likely timing.”
Meanwhile the Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, puts the odds of a rate hike in January at 50 percent.
“While the Bank reiterated its desire to get policy rates to neutral, the path to neutral is clearly more uncertain than just a couple of months ago,” he writes, in his most recent note. “Looking ahead to January, the BoC will likely need to be convinced to hike (rather than not).”
A VIDEO ON WHY VARIABLE RATE MAY BE THE WAY TO GO FOR YOUR PLANS
- https://vimeo.com/279581066
- This video is from my colleague Dustin Woodhouse and he perfectly presents the story on the variable. He also ONLY works in the BC Lower Mainland; if you live there HE should be doing your mortgage, if you don’t WE should be.
2. WTF is an ‘inverted yield curve,’ and what does it mean for the economy?
For the first time since 2007, the 2- to 5-year US Treasury yield curve has inverted. Historically, this has served as a somewhat reliable indicator of economic downturn, which means people are freaking out, which means…
OK, hold up: What exactly is a yield curve, and why is it inverting?
‘Lend long and prosper’ (so say the banks)
In short, a yield curve is a way to gauge the difference between interest rates and the return investors will get from buying shorter- or longer-term debt. Most of the time, banks demand higher interest for longer periods of time (cuz who knows when they’re gonna see that money again?!).
A yield curve goes flat when the premium for longer-term bonds drops to zero. If the spread turns negative (meaning shorter-term yields are higher than longer maturity debt), the curve is inverted…
Which is what is happening now
So what caused this? It’s hard to say — but we prefer this explanation: Since December 2015, the Fed has implemented a series of 6 interest rate hikes and simultaneously cut its balance sheet by $50B a month.
According to Forbes, the Fed has played a major part in suppressing long-term interest rates while raising short-term interest rates.
Yield curve + inversion = economic downturn (sometimes)
The data don’t lie. A yield curve inversion preceded both the first tech bubble and the 2008 market crash.
Though, this theory has had some notable “false positives” in its lifetime — so it’s not exactly a foolproof fortune teller.
Heck, IBM found the size of high heels tends to spike during hard times. As of now, the experts who believe the sky to be falling remain in the minority.
There is lots to digest in the data above. Please feel free to contact me to discuss in more detail.
Mark Herman, 403-681-4376
Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker
Should you look at 7 and 10 year terms?
With rates on the rise, is it worth a 2nd look at longer term mortgages?
Data:
- Rates have substantially increased over the last 6 of months. We have seen 3 prime rate increases with more on the horizon.
- Fixed rate mortgages have also followed suit due to bond market instability and the increases are noticeable.
- Consumer sentiment has rapidly moved from Variables rates to longer term Fixed rates of 5, 7, and 10 years.
The long-term trend for rates is up!
The advantage of Fixed rates is that they provide clients with added security and stability against this recent storm of volatility. This storm doesn’t seem to have an end in sight either with many questions still to be answered in the coming months. When will bond rates stabilize? Will global pressures continue to drive increases? Will we see a return to historical norms? What will be the impact of recent events on the Canadian economy?
Some clients are more concerned with rate trends these days it’s with good reason. Perhaps the interim answer to all this instability and volatility is to start looking long “term”. 7 & 10 year terms to be specific.
Longer term mortgages like a 7 & 10 year term help insulate clients against potential increases in the short to long-term as well as provide safety and consistency with mortgage payments that won’t fluctuate with the markets volatility.
We don’t have to go back very far (6-7yrs) to a time when 10 year mortgages were a very popular and attractive option. During that period of time many case studies show this product didn’t work out for those borrowers who selected those 10 year terms, however there was a major difference between that period of time and today. 6-7 years ago we were in a more stable rate environment and there was very little difference between the 5 & 10 year rates at the time. Shortly after this period, rates quickly dropped to even further all-time lows.
Compare those details to our current market situation where rates have now bottomed, and it becomes quickly apparent rates have been continually rising with more sustained increases forecasted.
If security is your top key, lets talk about a 7 or 10 year mortgage option today.
Mortgage Mark Herman
Top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker
403-681-4376
Fixed-Rate Mortgage Penalties: Larger Than Ever! ALL the MATH DETAILS here!
Many people are unaware the Big-6 banks, and all the banks you can walk into, calculate the payout penalties at much higher amounts than mortgage broker lenders.
The cost of how penalties are calculated is even more concerning when fixed-mortgage rates stay flat or rise slightly over an extended period – exactly what is happening right now.
Summary:
- You could be looking at an extra $7,000 in penalty cost on a $250,000 mortgage, or an extra $11,200 on a $400,000 mortgage, that is broken two years early with any Big-6 lender.
- Mortgage broker lenders still calculate the payout “the old way” – to your advantage!
Short Version:
Fixed-rate mortgage penalties are almost always calculated based on “the greater of three months interest or interest-rate differential (IRD)”. But there are key differences in the actual rates lenders use to calculate your IRD.
- These differences are magnified in a flat or slightly rising interest-rate environment.
- This is a big deal as the IRD calculations used by the banks below can trigger a penalty that is more than 5 times what you would be charged at a wide range of other lenders.
Long Version – hold on this is MATH!
Let’s say your current mortgage balance is $250,000 on a five-year fixed rate mortgage at 2.59%. We’ll also assume that you are three years into your term (with two years remaining) and that interest rates are the same when you break your mortgage as they were when you first got your loan.
First, we calculate the cost of three month’s interest, which we can quickly determine is $1,619.
Here is the formula we use to arrive at that number:
2.59% x $250,000 x 3/12 = $1,619
We then compare this cost to the cost of your IRD penalty, which will almost always be calculated using one of three methods: Standard, Discounted or Posted.
- The Standard IRD Penalty (used by Mortgage Broker Banks)
When using a standard IRD penalty calculation, your lender starts by taking the difference between your contract rate (2.59%) and their current rate that most closely matches your remaining term. Since you have two years left on your mortgage, that would be the lender’s two-year fixed rate (we’ll use 2.29%, which is widely available today). The difference between these two rates is 0.30%.
The lender multiplies this difference (0.30%) by your mortgage balance ($250,000) and the time remaining on your mortgage (expressed as the number of months remaining on your mortgage divided by twelve).
Here is the complete formula: (3.29% – 2.99%) x $250,000 x (24/12) = $1,500
And here is a table which explains where each number in the formula came from:
Standard IRD Calculation
2.59% = Your contract rate
2.29% = current rate the most closely matches your remaining term
$250,000 = remaining mortgage balance
24 = months remaining
$1,500 = IRD Penalty charged
That’s it; the standard IRD calculation. It is used by a wide range of lenders who compete with each other to offer borrowers the best mortgage rates available.
In this case the cost of three months’ interest ($1,619) is greater than the lender’s Standard IRD calculation ($1,500), so you would have to pay $1,619 to break your mortgage.
AND here is where the differences are: well-known lenders have tweaked their IRD calculations to skew the interest rates used in their formulas heavily in their favour, and as you will now see, that can have a huge impact on the size of your penalty.
- The Discounted Rate IRD Penalty (Used by RBC, BMO, TD, Scotia and National Bank)
When using the Discounted Rate Penalty, the lender takes your contract rate and compares it to the posted rate that most closely matches your remaining term MINUS the original discount you got off of their five-year posted rate (which in this case is 2.05%). Here is the contract wording taken straight from TD’s website. Key section is underlined:
{Your contract rate will be reduced by] the current interest rate that we can now charge for a mortgage term offered by us with the term closest to your remaining term. The interest rate will be our posted interest rate for the term minus the most recent discount you received.}
In other words, this lender will take the discount they gave you off of their five-year posted rate and apply that same discount to the posted two-year rate they use in your penalty calculation.
This tweak makes a big difference to the cost of your penalty and is blatantly one-sided because lenders don’t discount shorter-term fixed-rate mortgages nearly as deeply as they do their five-year terms (.30% vs. 2.05% using this same lender’s rate sheet as of today).
The table below shows you the key numbers used to calculate the Discounted Rate IRD penalty:
Discounted –Rate IRD Calculation
2.59% = Your contract rate
2.84% = current rate the most closely matches your remaining term
2.05% = discount you received on your original Contract Rate
0.79% = 2-year rate used to calculate your penalty
$250,000 = remaining mortgage balance
24 = months remaining
$9,000 = IRD Penalty charged
Yes, Ouch!
But fasten your seat belt because other major lenders dig even deeper into your wallet. The Grand Daddy of them all is the Posted Rate IRD Penalty.
- The Posted Rate IRD Penalty – the Real Pain (Used by CIBC)
Here is a breakdown of CIBC’s posted-rate penalty calculation:
In this variation, the lender calculates your IRD penalty using the five-year posted rate that they were offering when you got your mortgage. Here is a sample of the wording used to explain how the penalty is calculated (taken from CIBC’s website). Underlined, key sections:
The interest rate differential amount is the difference between the Interest on the Prepaid Amount for the remainder of the term at the posted rate at the time you took out the mortgage, and interest on the Prepaid Amount for the Remainder of the Term using a Comparable Posted Rate. Interest is calculated at the interest rate posted by [the lender] for a mortgage product similar to your mortgage product on the date the payout statement is prepared.
Now CIBC’s defence of this tactic is that they substitute posted rates for both your original rate and the rate that most closely matches your remaining term. But as we have already outlined above, this is a terrible trade that no informed person would make because Big-6 lenders must make huge discounts to their five-year posted rates to make them competitive with market five-year fixed rates, and those same discounts shrink dramatically on shorter fixed-rate terms.
If we used the same rates in this example that we used in the discounted-rate method outlined above, the posted-rate method would yield the same sized penalty. But CIBC’s posted rates tend to be higher (which they were at the time this post was written), and for that reason, their penalties earn the moniker of “The Grand Daddy of Them All”.
Here is what that small change to the wording in your contract does to your penalty:
Posted-Rate IRD Calculation
4.79% = 5-year posted rate that was offered when you got your mortgage
2.84% = current rate the most closely matches your remaining term
$250,000 = remaining mortgage balance
24 = months remaining
$9,750 = IRD Penalty charged
Long Summary – thanks for getting this far!
Don’t be Surprised. These inflated mortgage penalties generate substantial profits for the lenders who use them and when uninformed borrowers choose to negotiate directly with their lender, is it that hard to imagine that some of those lenders would word the fine print to their advantage.
To be clear, there is not a problem with mortgage penalties in principle. When you break a mortgage contract, your lender incurs costs when they unwind agreements related to your loan (these agreements can relate to hedging, servicing, secularization etc.). The penalty charged is supposed to cover these costs while also recouping part of the lender’s lost profit. Fair enough. That’s why they’re called “closed mortgages”. But is it fair for some lenders to use these early terminations as “gotcha” moments?
There is no way on earth that the average Canadian mortgage borrower has any idea that there are significant differences in the way fixed-rate mortgage penalties are calculated, and the largest Canadian lenders, who have milked that lack of awareness to their advantage for years, have been in no hurry to explain it to them.
Summary: a conscientious and well informed independent mortgage planner should be able to explain how penalties are charged by any lender they are recommending.
Bank Payout Penalties: The math behind “how they get you!”
This is a great article with the perfect math example.
Remember, there is also the catch of the collateral charge by the big banks that makes it cost about $2500 to leave your bank when your term is up.
Add these 2 things together and the better overall deals are from mortgage brokers.
Mark Herman, Top Calgary, Alberta Mortgage Broker for renewals and home purchases.
by: Angela Calla, AMP.
When choosing between mortgages, knowing how different lenders calculate penalties can be essential. The market and your needs easily shift during the term of your mortgage and the last thing you want is a painful penalty in order to get out early.
Penalty formulas differ radically, depending on the lender. A major bank, for example, will have a considerably higher penalty than a broker-only wholesale lender. Advice on how to avoid painful penalties is a key benefit of working with a mortgage broker.
You need to ask one important question right off the bat: What rates does the lender use to calculate its penalty? The actual discounted rates that people pay, or some artificially high posted rate? Hopefully the former.
Below is an example of how two lenders calculate the same “interest rate differential” penalty in different ways. Ask yourself, which one would save you the most money?
| Penalty #1 – Broker Lender | |
| Contract Rate (The rate you actually pay) | 4.19% |
| Current Rate (Today’s new rate, closest to your remaining term) | 3.09% |
| Differential (Contract Rate – Current Rate) | 1.10% |
| Remaining Balance | $229,000 |
| Remaining Months | 16 |
| Penalty Formula: Remaining Balance x Differential ÷ 12 x Remaining Months | $3,358.67 |
| TOTAL APPROXIMATE PENALTY | $3,358.67 |
| Penalty #2 – Major Bank | |
| Contract Rate (The rate you actually pay) | 4.19% |
| Current Posted Rate (Today’s new posted rate, closest to remaining term) | 3.39% |
| Original Posted Rate (At the time you got your mortgage) | 5.99% |
| Original Discount (That you received off the Original Posted Rate) | 1.80% |
| Differential (Contract Rate – (Current Posted Rate – Original Discount)) | 2.60% |
| Remaining Balance | $229,000 |
| Remaining Months | 16 |
| Penalty Formula: Remaining Balance x Differential ÷ 12 x Remaining Months | $7,938.67 |
| TOTAL APPROXIMATE PENALTY | $7,938.67 |
As you can see, there can be quite a difference in prepayment charges when you leave a lender early – over $4,500 in this example. And this is a modest hypothetical calculation. Bank discounts today are on the order of 2.00 percentage points off posted, instead of the 1.80 I’ve used here.
Some lenders will even charge an abnormally high penalty (like 3% of principal) despite you being close to the end of your mortgage term. They do this as a retention tool to keep you from leaving. Others will charge a “reinvestment fee” on top of the penalty, tacking on another $100 to $500 in expenses.
In short, penalties can be thousands—or even tens of thousands—higher depending on the lender’s specific calculation formula, mortgage amount, rates and time remaining until maturity. Extreme penalties are not only more expensive, they can even keep borrowers from moving because the amount eats into the money they’ve got for a down payment and closing costs.
Worse yet, some lenders have a “sale only” clause in their mortgages, meaning you can’t even leave them unless you sell the home. If you think, “Oh, that’s no big deal. I don’t plan on selling,” think again. Throughout every path in life, there are moving parts and uncertainties. When you get married, do you plan on divorcing? Likely not. Did you predict the company you were with for 20 years could downsize, or your pension would be reduced or cut? Can you guarantee your health will never throw you a curve ball?
We all want to believe that none of the above scenarios will come to pass, but they can and do. And when they do, what a relief it is to have options.
And last but not least, there is the refinance consideration. If interest rates fall 0.5-0.8%, (which may seem unlikely but is certainly a possibility) there may be opportunities to lower your borrowing costs. But you can’t do that unless you’ve got a low-cost way to renegotiate your existing contract. And as we’ve seen above, that cost is not based on just your interest rate alone.
Another example: When the rates are the same at the bank and the broker = broker deal is significantly better.
Here is what happens when the Current Posted Rate (Major Banks) = the Current Rate (Broker Lender) at 3.09%
Differential (Contract Rate – (Current Posted Rate – Original Discount)) = 2.90%
==> (4.19% – (3.09% – 1.80%)) = 2.90%
==> (4.19% – 1.29%) = 2.90%
Therefore:
Penalty Formula: Remaining Balance x Differential ÷ 12 x Remaining Months
==> $229,000 x 2.90% / 12 * 16
==> $8854.67
Moral of the story – talk to a broker and understand your penalty calculations.
You can talk to your major bank as well, although I don’t think they can spin the penalty calculation conversation into a favourable one for themselves.
Newly increased fees for home buyers – comments
The new fees are not that big a deal. It will add a bit but not much. All the news is just noise by the press looking to turn out an easy article. Below are my comments that will be in the Calgary Sun this week.
Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta mortgage broker for home purchase mortgage and renewal mortgages.
The additional $1,925 added to mortgage costs ends up costing an extra $8.81 a month for a $450k purchase – the average home price in Calgary – with 5 per-cent down on the maximum 25 year amortization.
“This really should not be that big a deal in the overall picture. We’re talking about the most expensive purchase most people make. An extra $2450 should not be a deal breaker. If it is, the buyers should really second think their continued ability to afford a home, especially if you consider that interest rates are at all-time 115-year lows. A rate increase, even back to what is considered the theoretical minimum of 4 pre-cent for the 5-year fixed, closed mortgage, should be considered more than this minor cost increase.”
For an average home at $450,000, the new increases with the budget for land title registration cost AND the new CMHC insurance premium for 5% down – from 3.15% to 3.6%:
The increase in the CMHC fee goes to $15,390 from $13,466 or an increase of $1,925.
The increase in the land title registration cost – attached – is an extra $525.
Total increase is $2,450 or 0.5% total increase in the costs to buy a home with 5% down payment.
Really not a big deal when you consider:
- Alberta does not have a 1% property transfer tax like B.C. and Ontario
- The cost for registration and land titles was cut by Ralph Klein years ago and has not increased since
- Buying a home for almost half a million dollars has only increased by 0.5% and
- Mortgage rates are at, and continue to hold at, now record lows; most mortgage broker rates are 2.69% for a full featured, 5 year mortgage with all the bells and whistles.
Fee increases may cause sticker shock for potential Calgary homebuyers
Fee hikes in Thursday’s provincial budget will add more than $1,000 to the cost of buying an average home in Alberta …
… The province said several real estate-related fees will increase effective July 1. Among the announced changes, the transfer/title creation flat fee rises from $50 to $75, while the variable fee will jump from $1 to $6 for each $5,000 in home value. Mortgage registration fees are to increase the same amount.
On a $450,000 mortgage, that would mean an increase from $140 to $540 for each.
“Unfortunately, these fees are assessed at the end of the real estate transaction and so are not included in the purchase price of the house, nor can they be rolled into the mortgage, so homebuyers will need to come up with that extra cost,” Copeland said.
Corinne Lyall, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the government has kept fees low for some time. This is the first time since 2011 that the flat fee for property and mortgage registrations has increased.