Alberta creates 9/10 jobs in ALL OF Canada for 2013
I have about 50 posts saying the continued inbound immigration from all places in Canada and the world supports our home prices and high qualify jobs down town. Here is more awesome news …
… It was the highest pace of monthly job creation in nearly three years and well above the average gain of about 6,000 since the end of the 2009 recession.
And Alberta accounted for a stunning 87 per cent of all the jobs created in the entire country since February of last year.
and the link is here: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Steady+hiring+climate+expected+Calgary+region/9603604/story.html
Great news!
#Mortgage RATES to stay low for a while yet – that is great news!
Below is the technical, boring stuff we read to see where rates are going for you. Just ask us for the short version.
Short version is that the Bank of Canada is going to leave the rates the same for a while yet – like a year.
Long boring version is below.
Canadian Dollar Down in Wake of BOC Dropping Tightening Bias
TORONTO–The Canadian dollar is lower Thursday morning as it struggles with the implications of the Bank of Canada’s erasure of its tightening bias amid a broader retreat in commodity currencies.
The U.S. dollar was at C$1.0409 Thursday, from C$1.0384 late Wednesday, according to data provider CQG.
Its high for the session so far at C$1.0419 fell just shy of resistance around the C$1.0420 area.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also lower Thursday amid concerns about monetary policy and banking system liquidity in China. Any threat to economic growth in China puts pressure on commodities and commodity-linked currencies because Chinese demand for commodities is a key support for the asset class.
But the Canadian dollar is also grappling with the implications of the Bank of Canada’s decision on Wednesday to drop its 18-month-old tightening bias, a move some analysts believe could prompt a new round of weakness in the Canadian unit as it undermines the perception the Bank will raise interest rates before other advanced economies.
Currency strategists at UBS said in a report the Bank’s move derailed a rally they had expected to see in the currency.
“Having felt conditions were ripe for a CAD rally, we were taught a harsh lesson on Wednesday by the BOC: never ever underestimate the determination of a small, open economy’s central bank to defy expectations for a positive outlook,” they said.
The tightening effect on the Canadian economy from any gain in the Canadian dollar is simply too big for the Bank of Canada to risk, and the bank wanted to keep policy steady in order to retain maximum policy flexibility, UBS said.
Write to Don Curren at don.curren@wsj.com
Calgary listed as an “out-performer” in Canadian real estate market
Calgary listed as an “out-performer” in Canadian real estate market
Pace predicted to be moderately lower for the rest of Canada
Calgary realtor Kaitlyn Gottlieb of Century 21 Bamber Realty Ltd.
Photograph by: Colleen De Neve Colleen De Neve, Calgary Herald
CALGARY — Canada is expected to embark on a gradual, modest, downward housing market adjustment over the next three years with a “measly” two per cent annual price gain over the next decade, says a study released Monday by TD Economics.
But the bank has also listed Calgary as an “out-performer” in Canada for the long-run rate of return on Canadian real estate. Compared with the national picture, Edmonton, Vancouver, Victoria and Toronto were also listed as out-performers for the future.
“With the slowdown in the Canadian housing market well entrenched, many are worried about the future value of their homes. This is not surprising as real estate is the largest financial asset most Canadians have in their possession,” said TD Economics.
“The housing market is prone to cyclical ups and downs and we should embark on a gradual, modest, downward adjustment over the next three years. We project a 3.5 per cent annual rate of return on real estate to prevail beyond 2015 – this is the long-run rate of increase for home prices in Canada. However, this pace will be moderately lower than they have been historically (5.4 per cent).”
Derek Burleton, vice-president and deputy chief economist with TD Economics, said Calgary had a run-up in prices before the recession and then a sharp decline during the recession.
“I guess prices didn’t come back too much but certainly sales fell back and now you’re getting a bit of a cyclical bounce,” he said, adding a long-term forecast takes into account key economic drivers like population growth and the potential of the economy to generate income.
“Based on some of the key drivers of growth, Calgary ranks right up there at the top and that should stand the housing market good stead. At least continue to drive above average price gains over the long run.”
The average MLS sale price in Calgary was $180,420 in 2000. That climbed to a peak of $423,770 in 2007 before dipping to $394,064 in 2009. From then, it has steadily climbed, reaching an all-time record of $428,644 in 2012.
Becky Walters, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the Calgary market is really strong this year due to the in-migration it has been getting over the past 12 months.
“It’s not maybe as strong this year as it was last year but it’s certainly strong,” said Walters. “We’re seeing a nice steady growth. We’re seeing prices starting to come up a little bit not tons.”
For example, according to CREB, year-to-date until March 10, there have been 3,595 MLS sales in the city, up 4.66 per cent from the same period a year ago, and the average sale price has jumped by 9.23 per cent to $451,189.
However, at the national level, TD said a string of lacklustre performances over the next few years will mean that the annual rate of return for real estate in nominal terms will be a “measly” two per cent over the next decade, meaning home price gains should simply match the pace of inflation.
“Our research at REIN Canada is showing that for the coming five years, outperforming markets will be those based not in speculation or foreign investment, they will be those markets supported by underlying economics,” said Don Campbell, senior analyst and founding partner of the Real Estate Investment Network. “The Canadian real estate market is too broad and too diverse to paint with one story or byline and will become an increasingly regional story. Supporting economics such as increasing jobs, increasing population through migration — especially those areas which are attracting a younger, working age cohort — and increasing incomes will play a larger role in market demand and value than it has in the last five years.
“Despite Calgary and Edmonton’s value moves already experienced, they are both rated in the most affordable major centres in the country because average incomes are also higher than in most other regions. This, along with the younger age of in-migrants to these cities from other parts of the country, will be strong and supporting factors for these market for the coming years.”
Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in the Calgary region the average price in 2013 is expected to reach $423,000, up 2.6 per cent from 2012.
“The rate of growth is anticipated to be higher here than in many other areas of the country as the average resale price in Canada is forecast to increase by only one per cent in 2013,” he said. “Supply of homes in Calgary’s resale market has come down from a year earlier while sales have been fairly stable. The resale price in 2014 is forecast to continuing rising in Calgary, averaging $434,000.”
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
Inspection needed even when buying new condo
Many people do not get inspections for new condos but since it is one of the most expensive things you can buy, it is worth it. Read below for more info.
Many buyers think it’s unnecessary to hire a building inspector before purchasing a new condo. Prospective owners often assume a condo building and their unit of interest is fine and everything is to code and working properly. While this is usually the case, purchasers still need to protect themselves against those rare occasions where a problem exists.
A friend of mine, for example, moved into a newly constructed condo where someone had inadvertently dropped a piece of plywood down the chimney flu, blocking it off. When the new owner lit the fireplace, smoke backed up through the unit.
Although the condo corporation took care of the fireplace, the owner was responsible for the smoke cleanup. A pre-purchase inspection would likely have avoided this problem as the offending piece of wood was within view of a casual look up the chimney.
I have sold many condos where buyers think they do not require an inspection, but every condo should be inspected by a certified building inspector.
Remember: It’s a good idea to put a building inspection clause into your offer. And it’s important to find a building inspector who is familiar with condo inspections. He or she will be cognizant of the types of problems to look for and of condominium building codes and regulations.
“What does an inspector check in a new condo? Isn’t this a waste of time and money?” I am asked this all the time.
An inspector will make sure your hood fan exhaust is properly connected. He will ensure that the electrical system is to code, in working order and adequate to meet any special electrical requirements you might have. Windows will be inspected to see they are installed properly and to regulation. A good inspector will also check the common elements to see if any owners who moved in before you have inflicted damage to the halls or elevators.
Is the garage constructed to code with adequate drainage to prevent flooding, winter road-salt spalling and excessive humidity build-up? An inspector will check the drainage in the garage and your parking spot. You want to make sure when you open your trunk to take out your groceries you are not always standing in a puddle of water.
The inspector will check the condo’s exterior envelope to see if it has adequate drainage and if it will deter ice buildup. Since the balcony is both the exterior element in which you will spend the most time and is also a source of liability (e.g.: ice buildup or water-damaged tiles blowing down onto the cars below), it will be examined carefully for potential problems.
Inspectors will check the roof and any air conditioning units located there, the security gate to the garage and many other things you would not think to consider.
The biggest factors are plumbing, electrical, heating and wiring. These must be to code, meet regulations and be suitable to accommodate any special requirements you, the buyer, might have. To further emphasize, a recent inspection revealed an ice buildup problem that, if not caught by the inspection, would have cost the buyer, along with the condo corporation, $20,000 to correct.
Definitely not a nice housewarming present.
Arkadi Abramovitch of Artech Home Inspections told me recently that technology has changed a lot in the past few years and this has helped to ensure buyers have a positive buying experience. Arkadi, along with many inspectors today, uses infrared equipment to check for moisture buildup in or behind the walls or ceilings, which would not normally be visible.
Inspectors check the exhaust systems for bathroom ventilation fans and kitchen hood fans that have sometimes been blocked inadvertently. A memorable condo inspection Arkadi had was when he found two Tim Hortons cups in a kitchen ventilation exhaust system.
It’s better to find out before closing on your unit than to try to fix the issue (and be reimbursed) later. Ask the inspector specifically for his or her impressions of the common areas as they may or may not do this if they aren’t asked specifically.
By now, I hope you are sold on the need for a building inspection for a new condo and it should be evident that this applies even more to a resale condo.
When first considering a resale condo, it’s a good idea to ask residents (if you know any) about previous problems with the building. When you request a building inspection, ask the inspector to address specifically these areas. (Of course, you are going to have both your lawyer and your insurance agent review the status certificate before signing off on the purchase.)
On the flip side, I encourage sellers to get a pre-inspection before their property is listed for sale.
Marilyn Wilson has been selling real estate for more than 23 years and owns Marilyn Wilson Dream Properties Inc.
Brokerage in Ottawa, an Exclusive Affiliate of Christie’s International Real Estate. She can be reached through dreamproperties.com or follow her on Twitter @marilyn_wilson.
the B20 !!
There will be lots more on THE B20 – as it is the #1 issue with getting real estate deals approved right now.
To start with, that the B20 is:
- Needs multiple financing condition extensions
- Pre-approvals collapse at the bank and with on-line or inexperienced brokers
- Seemingly strong purchasers outright and irreversibly declined
- Losing out in multiple-offer situations
- Approvals taking forever
SUMMARY
The reason you are having a tough time removing financing conditions (COF) for your deals is called “the B20” and the details are attached. Have a read to find out why. Better yet, feel comfortable suggesting your clients use 1 of Canada’s Top-10, full-time, professional, fully-independent, mortgage brokers with a Master’s Degree in Finance, who knows what these rules mean and how to get your deals done. On time.
OUR SYSTEM, proven during the ‘06 – ‘07 boom, gives you the winning edge in multiple offers most of the time. BEFORE clients go shopping we get all the docs in. They are then reviewed by our past-head-underwriter (with $18 Billion in residential mortgages written) who discusses directly with the bank underwriters. We know the deals will work BEFORE they write an offer. In multiple offers we review the file to shorten condition time and work with you to write the winning offer.
More Data – and on my blog @ http://blog.MarkHerman.ca/
New mortgage guidelines have been issued to ALL mortgage lenders by OSFI – the Office of the Superintendant of Financial Institutions – causing every lender to modify their policies which:
- Significantly restricts the LTV (Loan-to-value) and overall qualification of mortgage amounts.
- Demands significant additional scrutiny and verification of ALL client documentation – banks can no longer paper over problems like before; causing many more outright, irreversible declines.
- Causes many banks and non-professional mortgage agents to take way too long to present approvals or produce irreversible “declines” on mortgages that were not properly documented or packaged.
Using an experienced, full-time, professional, high-volume mortgage broker is the best way to ensure your deals are completed on time, the first time. Why risk an irreversible decline for your client by using any random broker?
10 Year Term – Best Ever!
10-year fixed, full-featured mortgage is @ 3.69! (Portable, Assumable, Standard 3 month payout fee) See my comments in the Calgary Sun – full article on home page of my website: http://markherman.ca
Alberta: 23,300 jobs were created, unemployment rate 2nd lowest in Canada
Canadians continue to move to Alberta for jobs and our hot economy. This is what caused the housing boom in 2007 and is expected to continue to support home prices here. With only 2000 listings for homes for sale prices are actually rising here – the opposite of Vancouver and Toronto.
CALGARY — Alberta’s unemployment rate remained unchanged in January at 4.5 per cent, second lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan’s 4.0 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.
The federal agency reported Friday that Alberta saw an employment gain of 9,700 positions from December, up 0.4 per cent. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province has grown by 1.9 per cent or 41,100 positions.
In the Calgary census metropolitan area, the unemployment rate rose from 4.6 per cent in December to 4.9 per cent in January. There were 1,700 jobs created, up 0.2 per cent. Year-over-year, 23,300 jobs were created in the region for an increase in employment of 3.2 per cent.
“Alberta added jobs, but the unemployment rate held steady, as more people joined the labour force,” said Jacqueline Palladini, economist with the Conference Board of Canada.
Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, said 8,600 of the new jobs in Alberta were full-time positions.
Job gains in Alberta were concentrated in finance, insurance and real estate (6,800), business support services (5,500), and construction (4,800). Those gains were partially offset by losses in transportation and warehousing (11,800), and retail and wholesale trades (6,800), explained Hirsch.
“January’s jobs report continues to portray Alberta’s labour market as healthy and balanced,” he said. “New jobs are being created to accommodate interprovincial and international migrants, but not so many that wages or labour shortages are in danger of overheating. In the months ahead, it is certainly possible, even likely, that the pace of new job creation will slow, particularly given the challenges in the energy sector. That should not be the cause of too much alarm, however. With 4.5 per cent unemployment, the economy is more than capable of managing a more moderate job market.”
Nationally, following two months of gains, employment decreased slightly in January by 22,000. A decline in the number of people looking for work pushed the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage points to 7.0 per cent.
Compared with 12 months earlier, employment increased by 1.6 per cent or 286,000, all in full-time work.
Douglas Porter, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said Canadian employment fell in January after a five-month stretch of surprisingly powerful gains.
“Combined with the steep drop in housing starts as well as the still-wide trade deficit, the jobs report rounds out a day of infamy for Canadian economic stats,” said Porter. “To some extent, the drop in jobs appears to be a payback for the surprising strength in the second half of last year, and would normally be little cause for concern. However, with housing softening notably, and consumers and governments not in much mood, or ability, to spend, the economy will need a major helping hand from a stronger U.S. performance in the year ahead to help generate renewed job gains.”
Sonya Gulati, senior economist with TD Economics, said the Canadian job market started 2013 on a sour note.
“The contraction seen this month is not the beginning of a new year – the recent pace of job creation was running too fast given economic growth,” she said.
“The Canadian job market fizzled to start the New Year. This should not have been a surprise to anyone. Labour market data in Canada are notoriously volatile and it is hard to infer trends even with a few months under your belt. If we use economic momentum and indicators as our gauge, job creation should come in around 10,000-20,000 in the next few months.”
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter: MTone123
Momentum continues in Calgary luxury home market
MLS sales in January just shy of all-time record for the month
CALGARY — Calgary’s housing market experienced a record year for luxury home sales in 2012 and the pace of transactions in January 2013 suggests the market is not slowing down.
According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, there were 34 MLS sales in Calgary of properties over $1 million in January — just shy of the January record of 36 luxury sales in 2007.
Calgary finished 2012 with an all-time record of 544 luxury home sales, eclipsing the previous mark of 458 in 2007.
The luxury home market in the city has rebounded following the recession dip of a couple of years ago.
Don Campbell, senior analyst and founding partner of the Real Estate Investment Network, said that during market corrections luxury homes are the first to drop off, after recreational properties, and the first to come back unlike recreational which is always last to recover.
“In Calgary, within the business world, confidence in business has come roaring back,” he said. “This has led those with capital and strong businesses to take the leap into the market.
“In a higher than average percentage, due to their more business orientation, those buying luxury homes have their finger on the pulse of economic direction and therefore with the resurgence of the Calgary economy over the last 14 months, they are identifying the fact that the luxury homes they want are not going to get any cheaper than they are now. They are seeing the underlying economic strength of the city and want to get into the market before it is reflected in the housing market. That is why you saw so much activity in 2012.”
Campbell said the large number of luxury home sales will push average sale prices up more than it is really being felt at the mid-market level.
“This will create un-supported expectations of mid-market sellers. Also, there are only so many luxury market homes in any given market and they are often the first to move,” said Campbell. “What we often see is a slowdown in these sales after 18 to 24 months and when this occurs it slows down the average sale price increase to lower than is being felt on the street.
“The other anomaly we are seeing in Calgary in the luxury market is the profile of the buyer. Compared to Toronto and Vancouver, whose luxury homebuyer demographic is made up of a large percentage of foreign/offshore buyers, Calgary’s luxury homebuyer profile is very local. People here in business have high paying jobs in Alberta. This is a much more stable cohort than the often fickle offshore buyer.”
Last year in January there were 16 luxury home sales in Calgary. After hitting a high in 2007, the market dipped to only six sales in January 2009.
“We have seen a 20 per cent increase in luxury sales in Calgary in 2012 over 2011 and are seeing tremendous momentum building already in 2013 this past month,” said Rachelle Starnes, realtor with Royal LePage Foothills in Calgary. “We have seen 10 sales over $1 million in Rocky View County in the past month, up 67 per cent over the same period last year. The Springbank area continues to be the busiest being one of the wealthiest areas in the country.
“Prices have dropped in the higher-end to reasonable levels, there is a dwindling supply and buyers have been out shopping the market for months. They have done their research and are ready to buy the minute the ‘perfect’ home hits the market. Calgary continues to be the ‘City of Choice’ for corporations moving West and the high salaries from the oil and gas market sectors allow for lots of ‘move-up’ buyers.”
The following are the annual sales in Calgary for homes priced at more than $1 million, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board:
2012 — 544
2011 — 446
2010 — 365
2009 — 337
2008 — 369
2007 — 458
2006 — 334
2005 — 138
2004 — 44
2003 — 36
2002 — 21
2001 — 14
2000 — 14
Twitter: MTone123
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
Alberta homes lead Canada for 2013
Alberta resale housing market tops Canada in annual sales growth
Forecast to lead the country again in 2013
CALGARY — Alberta will lead the country this year and in 2013 in the pace of growth in the resale housing market, according to a new forecast by the Canadian Real Estate Association.
The national association of realtors said Monday that Alberta MLS sales this year will finish up 13.1 per cent from last year to 60,800 transactions and sales will lead the country next year as well with 1.3 per cent growth to 61,600.
Nationally, sales are forecast to decline by 0.5 per cent this year to 456,300 and fall by another 2.0 per cent in 2013 to 447,400 transactions.
The average sale price in Alberta is expected to rise by 2.7 per cent this year to $363,100 and by another 2.3 per cent in 2013 to $371,300.
Across Canada, the national average sale price is forecast to increase by 0.3 per cent this year and next year to $363,900 and $365,100, respectively.
In November, Calgary MLS sales of 1,831 were up 10.6 per cent compared with last year while on the national level sales dipped by 11.9 per cent to 30,573.
The average sale price in Calgary rose by 3.8 per cent to $413,921 but fell by 0.8 per cent across the country to $356,687.
In Alberta, sales increased by 3.2 per cent to 4,034 transactions and the average price was up 4.3 per cent to $365,999.
“National sales activity has remained fairly steady at lower levels since mortgage rules were changed earlier this year, but that stability masks some real differences in trends among local housing markets,” said Wayne Moen, CREA’s president.
CREA on Monday also released its MLS Home Price Index of seven major Canadian markets. Regina’s annual price growth of 11.58 per cent led the nation followed by Calgary at 7.13 per cent.
The national aggregate price rose 3.5 per cent year-over-year, the seventh time in as many months that the year-over-year gain shrank and it marks the slowest rate of increase since May 2011.
Twitter:@MTone123
© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald
Calgary – #1 for Real Estate Investment
Once again, Calgary has been ranked as the top real estate investment market in the country followed by Edmonton by the Real Estate Investment Network Ltd.
In its Top Alberta Investment Towns report, REIN said that Alberta’s economy has come out on top after a few years of economic turbulence.
The report identifies towns and regions poised to outperform other regions of the province over the next three to five years.
And none is better than Calgary.
“After a couple of roller-coaster years, Calgary is back on a roll. The return of jobs to the city, as well as greatly reduced office vacancy rates show us that the city’s short slump has come to an end,” said the report. “Recording a GDP growth of three per cent in 2011, and one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, it’s no wonder Calgary is sitting as one of the top places in North America for property investors. When you combine the economic fundamentals, the population growth, and a burgeoning provincial economy, it is easy to see why so many businesses and people have come to call the city home.
“The market is hot. With the pressure on the resale housing market, there is similar pressure on the rental market. Inventory has dropped for rental accommodations while monthly rents have increased. Real estate investors and real estate agents are reporting that rental listings are being pounced on. Savvy investors purchasing units and advertising them for rent upon close are receiving calls from anxious tenants wanting to see the unit before the investor has possession and/or has done any improvements to the property. Rental sites are reporting difficulty in compiling statistics become some communities have nothing for rent.”
REIN said housing affordability will begin to be an issue in Calgary, with rents increasing and a high average sale price. But when you look at that price versus average income it shows that other cities in Canada have a much larger problem on their hands.
“Calgary has the long-term economics to support long-term market strength while other cities do not,” said REIN.
The Top Alberta Investment Towns ranked in order are: Calgary, Edmonton, Airdrie, Red Deer, St. Albert, Fort McMurray, Lethbridge, Grande Prairie, Okotoks, Leduc, Sylvan Lake and Lacombe.
The report said Airdrie has been one of the fastest growing communities in the province.
“Its proximity to the economic engine of Calgary and the growth of the surrounding economy will push the physical and economic growth limits of the city in the next decade,” said REIN.
“With increasingly easy access to many areas of Calgary via the ring road as well as the growth of job centres in and around the city, Airdrie property owners should continue to feel upward pressure on both rents as well as home prices. As affordable housing becomes a growing problem in Calgary, Airdrie will benefit from lower average house prices. As the office centre of the west, Calgary may offer employment opportunities that Airdrie does not, but much of the labour force will turn to Airdrie as a place to call home.”
REIN’s top Canadian investment cities ranked in order are: Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton, Surrey, Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows, Airdrie, Kitchener and Cambridge, Red Deer, St. Albert, Waterloo, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Halifax.
According to a research note by Scotia Economics, Alberta remains a key economic engine for Canada, with the highest provincial real GDP growth rate forecast for 2012 and 2013 at 3.4 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively.
“The economy is growing strongly with contributions from consumer spending, business investment, particularly in the oilsands, and exports, which is encouraging given the strong Canadian dollar and soft global demand,” it said. “Provincial government spending also will continue to support growth, albeit at a slower pace than over the decade prior to the recession.”
In the second quarter of 2012, Alberta had a year-over-year population growth rate of 2.5 per cnet, the highest in the country.
“At this juncture, the federal government’s recent tightening of mortgage and home equity financing standards appears to have had a limited impact on Alberta’s housing market,” said Scotia Economics. “It continues to be supported by strong employment growth, significant wage gains and ongoing resource development.”
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Residential Market Update – Mortgage Rates to stay low for a while.
A great summary of where we are today in relation to the economy and the housing market.
There have been a couple of highlights for the Canadian housing market in the past week:
- the U.S. Federal Reserve announcement that it is committed to low interest rates until 2015 and
- the latest global housing outlook that puts this country in better shape than most.
Anyone looking for a new mortgage or a mortgage renewal will likely be heartened by the American central bank’s interest rate pledge. The commitment to low rates makes it harder, but not impossible, for the Bank of Canada to move on its desire to increase rates.
However, that desire got a boost from Canada’s economic think-tank, the C.D. Howe Institute. It says the central bank needs to change the way it calculates inflation to take into account rising house prices. The institute says the current calculation keeps inflation lower than it really is and puts the Bank of Canada at risk of keeping rates too low for too long.
As for the global housing outlook, it shows Canadian prices continue to rise, albeit more slowly than a year ago. But around the world, countries showing price declines outnumbered gainers by more than two to one.