Canadian Residential Mortgage Market: Inflation & Interest Rates: the Lead Characters for 2023
Summary:
- The Bank of Canada (BOC) increased interest rates 7 times in 2022. Exactly as expected 16 months ago.
- Inflation is at least 5.7%; and it needs to get down to 3%
- The BoC would rather over-tighten than under-tighten
- Normally it takes 18 to 24 months for interest rate increases to work their way into the economy and we are only about 10 months into this tightening cycle
These 4 painful data points mean Prime will increase from 6.45% to 6.70% on Jan 25th.
We now expect there to be at least 1 or 2 more o.25% increases to Prime before it is expected to hold for the rest of 2023, and then begin to decrease in 2024.
Details of Canadian Economic & Housing Market Performance, as at Dec 7, 2022
Non-technical summary of underlying economic data points causing Prime to increase to a 15-year high of 6.45% on Dev 7, 2022.
Canadian Prime Rate is now 5.95% – Mortgage Rate Analysis to End of 2022
Bank of Canada increased benchmark interest rate to 3.75%
Today, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight benchmark interest rate 50 basis point to 3.75% from 3.25% in September. This is the sixth time this year that the Bank has tightened money supply to quell inflation, so far with limited results.
Trigger Point for Canadian Variable Rate Mortgages Explained, with Example
A detailed explanation of Canadian mortgage trigger point and how to handle it.
WHAT’S REALLY BEHIND A CREDIT SCORE? Revealing the components of the calculations
Credit scores typically range between 300 and 850 points and provide an indication of a borrower’s capacity r to repay their loans. There are two main credit bureaus in Canada – Equifax and TransUnion – that collect, store, and share information about how you use credit.
WHY ARE DEBT SERVICING RATIOS IMPORTANT WHEN APPLYING FOR A MORTGAGE?
HOW ARE DEBT SERVICING RATIOS CALCULATED?
There are two ratios you need to worry about—gross debt servicing (GDS) and total debt servicing (TDS)
Gross debt servicing (GDS)
This is the maximum amount you can afford for shelter costs each month. It’s your monthly housing costs divided by your monthly income.
Mortgage Tips for Canadian Buyers
Buying a home should be exciting – not exhausting.
Mortgage Checklist
1. Determine your Budget
Determine what your monthly budget is for the following:
– Mortgage payment
– Property taxes and Condo fees (if applicable)
– Utilities, maintenance and repair
How sudden job loss affects your mortgage pre-approval or approval
If you’ve been thinking about buying a house, you’ve probably considered how much you can afford in mortgage payments. Have you also thought about what would happen if you lost your source of income?
Data on July 1, 2022 Prime Increase to 3.7%
Today, the Bank of Canada showed once again that it is seriously concerned about inflation by raising its overnight benchmark rate to 1.50% – making Consumer Prime 3.70%
This latest 50 basis point increase follows a similar-sized move in April and is considered the fastest rate hike cycle in over two decades.
Everyone STAY COOL!
Says Mortgage Mark Herman, top Calgary Alberta Mortgage Broker.